Hotel rates in Okinawa traced a “slow down, then recover” curve from summer into autumn 2026. Comparing settled months year over year on our estimated settled ADR (the achieved price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent), business hotels (N=197 properties) reached ¥8,835 in September 2026, up 9.4% YoY, and widened the gain to +12.5% at ¥9,103 in October. Resort hotels (N=282–283 properties) also posted ¥16,799 (+7.3%) in September and ¥16,272 (+10.1%) in October, bouncing back to double digits from an August low of +3.1%. This article uses the settled August–October YoY figures as its anchor to examine the trajectory of growth since the start of the year, why growth thinned in August, and the current-estimate levels for November–December.

Coverage: Okinawa business hotels N=193–197 properties, resort hotels N=259–283 properties, city hotels N=11–16 properties (reference only). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the achieved price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are given at the end of the article. Data as of: November 7, 2026.

Three Settled Months YoY — Growth Thinned in August, Then Widened Again in September–October

Let us first line up the three months with settled figures — August, September and October 2026 — against the settled figures for the same months a year earlier. Business hotels reached ¥9,734 (N=196) in August, only +3.3% over the prior year’s ¥9,421 (N=196). September came in at ¥8,835, +9.4% above the prior year’s ¥8,079, and October at ¥9,103, +12.5% over ¥8,091 — the gain widening month by month. Resort hotels followed the same shape: August was ¥22,291 (N=282), +3.1% against the prior year’s ¥21,629 (N=266), before accelerating to ¥16,799 (+7.3%) in September and ¥16,272 (+10.1%) in October.

In yen terms, the outline of this re-acceleration becomes even clearer. The YoY uplift for business hotels expanded from +¥313 in August to +¥756 in September and +¥1,012 in October — more than tripling in three months — while resort hotels built up step by step from +¥662 in August to +¥1,147 in September and +¥1,492 in October. Autumn in Okinawa is the season when rates fall from the summer peak; the reasonable reading is that the decline this year was shallower than last year.

Estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent), settled vs. settled comparison. N= is the number of properties used in the estimate. Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Lining Up Growth Rates Since January — August’s “+3%” Reflects Last Year’s Peak, Not a Stall

Widening the view back to January 2026 gives the August slowdown a different meaning. Business hotel YoY growth was extremely high at the start of the year — +24.9% in January, +27.4% in February and +19.6% in March — and held at +12.9% to +15.9% in April–June. It then narrowed to +7.6% in July and +3.3% in August before recovering to +9.4% in September and +12.5% in October; that is this year’s trajectory. Resort hotels ran +17.7% to +25.8% in January–June, then +9.9% in July, +3.1% in August, +7.3% in September and +10.1% in October — the trough falls in exactly the same place as for business hotels.

Behind this is the fact that summer 2025 was already high. Resort hotels in August 2025 hit ¥21,629, a peak more than ¥2,600 above any other month that year, and business hotels’ ¥9,421 in August 2025 was also that year’s high. Growth naturally thins in a month with a high comparison base, and it would be premature to read it as weakening demand. In fact, in all 10 settled months of January–October 2026, both business and resort hotels exceeded the same month of the prior year without a single exception. That said, because the August slowdown also appears in other prefectures (Table 2 below), it remains possible that a nationwide factor overlapped with the base effect.

Business hotels N=193–200 properties. November–December are estimates based on current sales (dotted line). Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

The year-over-year overlay chart for business hotels shows the 2026 line running consistently above the 2025 line from January through October. In particular, February’s ¥10,648 exceeded August 2025’s ¥9,421 — the 2025 high — by more than ¥1,200, suggesting that the assumption that “summer is the annual peak” for Okinawa business hotels is starting to waver. Meanwhile, the August-to-August gap was the thinnest at +¥313, which can be read as the summer upside having already been largely captured in the prior year.

Resort Hotels — Holding a High August Peak While Narrowing the September–October Drop

Resort hotels are a format with a large gap between the summer peak and the shoulder season, so reading their YoY figures takes some care. In 2025, rates fell ¥5,977 from ¥21,629 in August to ¥15,652 in September; in 2026, the drop from ¥22,291 in August to ¥16,799 in September was only ¥5,492, making the seasonal step about ¥500 shallower. By setting the peak higher than the prior year and then compressing the subsequent decline, autumn rate formation proved more resilient than last year. For how the seasonal shape differs across the three formats — resort, city and business — see our detailed analysis inOkinawa’s 3 Hotel Segments Compared.

Resort hotels N=258–283 properties. November–December are estimates based on current sales (dotted line). Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Another point worth noting is the growth in the number of properties covered. Resort hotel N rose by around 16 properties, from 266–267 in August–October 2025 to 282–283 in the same period of 2026, and median-based rates sustained near double-digit growth even as new supply was added. Given that an expanding population tends to push the median down, either existing properties raised rates by more than that, or new properties entered at higher price points — either way, the rate range for the prefecture as a whole appears to have shifted upward. For an inventory-ratio reading of 2026’s 2,842 new rooms broken down by format, seeOkinawa 2026: 2,842 New Rooms Broken Down by Format.

City Hotels (Reference) — Same Direction of Growth, but Mind the Change in Sample

City hotels came in at ¥18,089 (N=16) in September versus ¥16,824 (N=11) a year earlier, +7.5%, and at ¥19,993 in October versus ¥17,504, +14.2% — moving in the same direction as the other two formats. However, August was ¥20,654, slightly below the prior year’s ¥20,703 at −0.2%, and N changed from 11 properties a year earlier to 15–16, so the YoY figures themselves should be treated as reference values. In a format with few properties, the entry of just a few hotels can move the median, so for Okinawa city hotels it is safest to take away only the direction — “growth roughly approaching double digits” — and not debate fine differences in rates.

Compared with Other Regions — The August Trough Was Not Unique to Okinawa, and October Growth Ranked Near the Top

We lined up Okinawa’s August–October trend against eight other prefectures using the same estimated settled ADR definition (Table 2). For business hotels, August was the weakest month of August–October in 7 of the 8 comparison prefectures — all except Osaka — so the August slowdown was not limited to Okinawa. Meanwhile, Okinawa business hotels’ +12.5% YoY in October was the third highest of the nine regions (behind Fukuoka at +22.7% and Tokyo at +14.0%), and resort hotels’ +10.1% ranked second among the four regions with N≥30, behind Kagoshima at +11.8%. The August slowdown was widely shared, and Okinawa sits near the top on the strength of its September–October rebound.

YoY on settled estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent). For resort hotels, regions with fewer than N=30 properties in October 2026 are shown as “—”.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Behind the Rate Gains — Estimated OCC for Autumn 2026 and Current Estimates for November–December

Whether occupancy fell in the months when rates rose is the first thing a revenue manager will want to check. Estimated OCC for 2026 (OTA-listed inventory basis, fixed cohort) was 84.7% in August, 86.7% in September and 91.5% in October for business hotels (134–142 properties / approx. 12,500–13,100 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites), and 87.2%, 87.7% and 90.4% for resort hotels (180–203 properties / approx. 15,600–17,300 rooms, same basis) — so the occupancy estimate was also highest in October, the month with the widest YoY rate gain. The combination of the month with the strongest YoY rate gain also being the fullest can be read as evidence that pricing kept pace with demand. Note that this estimated OCC is observed for 2026 only, and no YoY comparison is made (for the definitional difference from the Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy rate, seeOkinawa Occupancy 2026: Official Statistics vs. OTA Inventory Basis).

By day of week, October business hotels ran 93.9% on Saturdays and 93.3% on Fridays versus 89.3% on Mondays and 89.4% on Sundays, while resort hotels ran 91.7% on Saturdays versus 89.5% on Thursdays — both peaking on weekends, yet with the weekday gap kept within 5 points. The fact that weekdays did not sink significantly appears to have formed the foundation supporting rates for the month as a whole.

Estimates based on current sales, subject to change until the month is settled. Comparison with prior-year settled figures awaits settlement. Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

For November–December, we add only the estimated levels based on current sales. Business hotels stand at ¥10,056 (N=193) for November and ¥9,733 (N=194) for December; resort hotels at ¥13,956 (N=282) for November and ¥14,200 (N=279) for December. These are snapshots mid-sale, and a simple comparison with settled figures must wait for month-end settlement. Note that the business hotel November estimate (¥10,056) is 10.5% above the settled October figure of ¥9,103, but current estimates are calculated on a listing-snapshot basis while settled figures use a verified-history basis. In all eight comparison prefectures, too, business hotel November estimates exceed the same year’s settled October figures by 6.9% to 41.0%, and the apparent growth against the prior year’s settled November (+20.7% for Okinawa) is larger than the settled October YoY in 7 of the 8 prefectures. The gap between estimate and settled figure alone cannot tell us whether the uplift will continue to year-end (the yardstick for evaluating settled figures is in the next section).

Recent booking pace is also worth noting as a supporting reference. On the booking curve for stays on Saturday, November 14, 2026, business hotels (134 properties / 12,396 rooms) climbed +16.9 points from an estimated OCC of 75.9% at 45 days out to 92.8% at 7 days out (the latest observation), while resort hotels (190 properties / 15,961 rooms) rose +9.0 points from 75.8% at 45 days out to 84.8% at 8 days out. For Saturday, November 21, business hotels moved from 77.3% at 45 days out to 91.4% at 14 days out, and resort hotels from 78.0% to 85.2% at 15 days out — reaching 80–90% two weeks ahead, which means weekends in early-to-mid November have entered the final stage of sales.

A Yardstick for Evaluating November–December Settled Figures — Three Scenarios and YoY Sensitivity

When the November–December settled figures come out, we want a yardstick in place to judge whether they extend autumn’s growth or show it slowing. Table 4 multiplies the settled November and December 2025 figures by three levels taken from the settled January–October 2026 YoY rates. The pessimistic case uses August, the smallest growth of the year (business +3.3%, resort +3.1%); the mid case uses the average of the latest months, September–October (+10.9%, +8.7%); and the optimistic case uses the January–October median (+13.2%, +18.3%). These are not forecasts but a scale against which to place the settled figures once they arrive.

Current estimates are on a listing-snapshot basis and use a different calculation basis from settled figures (verified-history basis), so they are shown for reference only. Business hotels N=193–194, resort hotels N=258–282.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

For resort hotels, December 2025 (¥15,356) was higher than November (¥13,721), so the December scale sits a notch higher. Holding +10% YoY requires a settled December figure of ¥16,892. For business hotels, November 2025 was ¥8,334, slightly above October (¥8,091), putting the +10% level at ¥9,167. Table 5 lists the settled figures required when YoY is varied across five steps from 0% to +20% (bold = +10%).

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

For Revenue Managers at Okinawa Business and Resort Hotels — Implications and Action Plan

Action Plan

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Okinawa’s Autumn Rates

The first yardstick is the shape itself: “growth bottomed in August and re-accelerated in September–October.” The progression of +3.3% → +9.4% → +12.5% for business hotels and +3.1% → +7.3% → +10.1% for resort hotels should be read as a single story — a temporary compression against a high prior-year peak, followed by recovery. The second is the fact that rates were “above the prior year in all 10 settled months”: although the swing was large, from +20%-plus at the start of the year to around +3% in summer, the direction never reversed. The third is the combination that “October, the month with the strongest rate growth of August–October, also had the highest estimated OCC,” showing that Okinawa’s autumn rate increases were backed by demand. For November–December we added only current-estimate levels, but because estimates use a different calculation basis from settled figures, whether autumn’s growth continued to year-end should be judged on settled figures. The levels for measuring whether around +10% YoY was maintained are summarized in Table 5.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Are Okinawa hotel rates higher in 2026 than the previous year?

Yes. On settled estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent), all 10 months of January–October 2026 exceeded the same month of the prior year for both business and resort hotels. In October 2026, business hotels were ¥9,103 (+12.5% YoY, N=197) and resort hotels ¥16,272 (+10.1%, N=283).

Q. Why did YoY growth shrink to around +3% in August 2026?

Because the comparison base, August 2025, was that year’s high for both business hotels (¥9,421) and resort hotels (¥21,629). However, business hotels in 7 of the 8 comparison prefectures also saw their smallest growth of August–October in August, so a nationwide factor may also have been at work.

Q. Are November–December 2026 rates likely to exceed the prior year?

Because current estimates use a different calculation basis from settled figures, the YoY comparison must wait for settlement. The settled figures needed to hold +10% YoY are ¥9,167 (November) and ¥8,620 (December) for business hotels, and ¥15,093 (November) and ¥16,892 (December) for resort hotels.

Q. What is estimated settled ADR?

It is the achieved price level estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × format-specific coefficient, ensembled across multiple channels), expressed as a tax-excluded-equivalent area median. Checked against published operating results, the median error is 6.6%. Past months are settled figures; current and future months are estimates based on current sales.

Q. Is the estimated OCC in this article the same as the Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy rate?

No. Estimated OCC is an estimate on an OTA-listed inventory basis, calculated from the number of rooms remaining on OTAs. Because unlisted rooms are counted as consumed, it runs higher than the actual room occupancy rate. This article uses monthly averages and day-of-week averages for August–October 2026.

About the Data

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

■ Data Sources

Estimated settled ADR is the monthly area median for business, resort and city hotels in Okinawa (January 2025–December 2026; past months are settled figures, November–December 2026 are current estimates). The regional comparison (Table 2) uses the same definition for Hokkaido, Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, Fukuoka, Nagasaki, Miyazaki and Kagoshima for August 2025–November 2026. Estimated OCC and booking curves are based on a fixed cohort on an OTA-listed inventory basis. All figures are aggregated by MetroEngines Research, as of November 7, 2026.

■ Calculation Assumptions

The three scenarios in Table 4 multiply the settled November and December 2025 figures by three levels taken from the settled January–October 2026 YoY rates (pessimistic = August, the smallest; mid = average of September–October; optimistic = January–October median). Table 5 back-calculates the settled figures required for November and December 2026 across five YoY steps from 0% to +20%. None of these are forecasts; they are scales for evaluating settled figures.

■ Limitations and Caveats

Current estimates (listing-snapshot basis) and settled figures (verified-history basis) use different calculation bases and cannot be directly compared. The resort hotel sample grew by around 16 properties from the same period a year earlier, so YoY figures may include the effect of sample changes. City hotels are reference only at N=11–16 properties. Estimated OCC is observed for 2026 only, with no YoY comparison.