According to estimates by the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), Thai visitors to Japan totaled 1,233,103 in 2025 (+7.3% YoY), and December, at 174,009, set an all-time single-month record. Breaking down the 2025 final figures of the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey by nationality, December was also the busiest month of the year for Thai guest nights, at 625,950. This article first confirms the monthly peaks of the Thai market, then uses the statistics to identify the prefectures with the most Thai stays and those where Thailand’s share of foreign guest nights exceeds the national average. Lining up winter (December and January) estimated settled ADR and room occupancy, it identifies the prefectures that absorb Thai winter demand.

*Room occupancy in this article is the published figure from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (all property types combined). Guest nights by nationality use Reference Table 1 of the same survey (properties with 10 or more employees for 2025 and earlier; properties with 20 or more rooms for January 2026), and do not match foreign guest nights on an all-property basis.

Monthly Trend of the Thai Market — Two Peaks, in April and December

Let us start with the seasonality of arrivals. Overlaying JNTO’s data by nationality and month for Thailand in 2019, 2024, 2025 and 2026 reveals two peaks. The first is March–April, which includes Songkran, the Thai New Year: 158,470 arrivals in April 2025 and 164,841 in April 2026. The second is a winter peak that rises from October and tops out in December; the 174,009 arrivals in December 2025 exceeded December 2019 (164,936), an all-time single-month high for the Thai market.

Full-year 2025 arrivals were 1,233,103, still short of the 1,318,977 recorded in 2019. By month, however, five months — January–March, May and December — exceeded the same month of 2019, so the degree of recovery varies widely by month. While the summer months (June–September) remained below 2019, the winter and spring peaks are moving past 2019 levels. Peak timing differs by market; for the Vietnamese market, which peaks in February around Tet, see ouranalysis of Vietnam inbound 2025.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) “Visitor Arrivals”

*August and September 2026 are estimates. January–July are provisional figures.

In 2026, arrivals stayed above the prior year through the spring peak: 115,100 in January (+18.9% YoY), 160,861 in March (+8.5%) and 164,841 in April (+4.0%). They then fell below the prior year in May (−8.6%) and June (−7.8%), recovered temporarily in July (+10.9%), and dropped below the prior year again in August (−9.3%) and September (44,800, −12.6%). The January–September cumulative total was 835,400 (+2.4% YoY). Given the softness in the second half, how much of the winter peak can be captured will determine where full-year 2026 lands.

By Guest Nights, December Is the Peak — About 6 Times Summer

The peaks in arrivals show up directly in the accommodation statistics. Lining up Thai guest nights by month from the Japan Tourism Agency’s 2025 final figures (Reference Table 1), December’s 625,950 guest nights account for 15.3% of the annual 4,103,540, the highest of any month and above April (545,730). The lowest month, August, had 104,730 guest nights; December is about 6 times that.

Thailand’s share of all foreign guest nights also makes the depth of winter clear. Thailand’s share for full-year 2025 was 2.66%, but it rose to 4.61% in December alone. For properties whose foreign guest mix shifts at year-end, Thailand is likely one of the markets with the largest presence in December.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (2025 final figures, Reference Table 1, properties with 10 or more employees)

Prefectures with the Most Thai Stays, and with the Highest Share

So where do Thai stays go? Ranking 2025 full-year guest nights by prefecture, the top three — Tokyo (1,283,510), Osaka (636,200) and Hokkaido (518,830) — account for 59.4% of the total, and the top 10 reach 85.9%. In terms of volume, Thai stays are concentrated in the major cities and Hokkaido. Prefecture-level host markets for other nationalities are summarized in ourPrefecture Host Map 2026 by nationality.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (2025 final figures, Reference Table 1, properties with 10 or more employees)

Looking at Thailand’s share of foreign guest nights, however, a different line-up emerges. Against the national average of 2.66%, Yamanashi stands at 8.19%, about 3.1 times the average and the highest among prefectures with 10,000 or more Thai guest nights. Nagano (5.81%) and Gifu (5.73%) are also more than twice the national average, and prefectures in the northern Kanto and southern Tohoku regions such as Gunma, Fukushima and Tochigi sit in the 5–6% range. Hokkaido ranks 3rd by volume and also has a high share of 4.63%, making it a region highly dependent on the Thai market in terms of both volume and share.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (2025 final figures, Reference Table 1, properties with 10 or more employees)

*Top 12 prefectures by share among those with 10,000 or more Thai guest nights.

The many prefectures outside the major cities with a high Thai share show that the Thai market contributes to sending visitors to regional areas. Twenty-one prefectures exceed the national average, most of them outside the Tokyo metropolitan area. Note, however, that in prefectures where the share is high but volume is small, the demand reaching individual properties is limited.

Prefectures Where Winter (December and January) Demand Deepens

From here we look at winter movements in five prefectures: the four that rank high in both volume and share — Hokkaido, Yamanashi, Gifu and Nagano — plus Miyagi, where Thailand’s share rose to 8.29% in December. December Thai guest nights rose YoY in all five, with Hokkaido (+25.5%) and Nagano (+28.1%) growing faster than the national +16.7%.

Unit: guest nights. December 2024 and 2025 are final figures (properties with 10 or more employees); January 2026 is the 2nd preliminary figure (because the scope of the nationality tabulation changed to properties with 20 or more rooms, January YoY is a reference value that includes the difference in scope). Dec + Jan share = (January 2025 + December 2025) ÷ full-year 2025.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” Reference Table 1 (2024 and 2025 final figures: properties with 10 or more employees; January 2026 2nd preliminary figures: properties with 20 or more rooms)

The share of annual Thai stays concentrated in December and January is high in Hokkaido (31.0%), Gifu (31.1%) and Miyagi (30.5%), versus 24.2% nationally. In these prefectures, roughly 30% of Thai demand is concentrated in the two winter months. By contrast, Yamanashi (25.2%) is in line with the national figure and Nagano (20.3%) is actually lower; with Thailand’s share rising as high as 8.90% in April, these prefectures appear to capture year-round demand in combination with the spring peak.

Miyagi’s growth stands out, but it should be read with the caveat that it comes from a small base of 3,240 guest nights in December 2024. In terms of timing, it coincides with the launch of a direct flight linking Tohoku and Thailand: Thai AirAsia X began 4-weekly service on the Sendai–Bangkok (Don Mueang) route on December 1, 2025. However, the route ended in April 2026 and its resumption in autumn 2026 has been shelved, so this winter cannot count on a boost from the same direct flight. January 2026 figures are 2nd preliminary values and may be revised in the final figures. In addition, from that month the nationality tabulation covers properties with 20 or more rooms, so January YoY should be read with a margin.

Estimated Settled ADR and Room Occupancy in the Five Winter Host Prefectures

How did rates and occupancy move in the host prefectures during the winter, when Thai demand deepens? Comparing estimated settled ADR between finalized months, December 2025 was above the prior year in all five prefectures. Yamanashi rose from ¥10,300 to ¥13,700 (+32.7%), Nagano from ¥11,400 to ¥14,100 (+23.8%) and Hokkaido from ¥7,900 to ¥9,400 (+19.5%) — all double-digit increases. January 2026 was also above the prior year in all five, led by Hokkaido (+26.5%) and Miyagi (+31.8%).

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research and HotelBank Editorial Team

Meanwhile, Japan Tourism Agency room occupancy in December was broadly flat: Hokkaido 59.5% (prior year 58.7%), Nagano 33.3% (34.0%) and Yamanashi 37.7% (38.0%). Maintaining occupancy while rates rose shows that demand in these prefectures absorbed the rate increases in winter. Gifu’s December occupancy rose 4.0pt to 50.0% (prior year 46.0%), growing both rate and occupancy. Miyagi’s occupancy also rose, to 57.4% in December (51.5%) and 52.2% in January (47.4%). In January, on the other hand, Hokkaido fell from 62.1% to 57.9% and Gifu from 50.5% to 44.2%, so movements were not uniform even within the two winter months.

N for estimated settled ADR is the number of properties covered in December 2025 / January 2026 (verified segments: business, city, resort, ryokan and capsule). Room occupancy is the all-property-type total from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (December 2024 and 2025 are final figures; January 2026 is the 2nd preliminary figure). From January 2026 the survey’s classification changed from an employee-count basis to a room-count basis, so January YoY comparisons are reference values.

Source: Estimated settled ADR = MetroEngines Research; room occupancy = Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey”; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Note, however, that estimated settled ADR and room occupancy reflect total accommodation demand including domestic guests, and do not isolate the contribution of Thai demand. In December, Thai guest nights accounted for 5.93% of foreign guest nights in Hokkaido, 13.67% in Yamanashi and 13.24% in Gifu. In Yamanashi and Gifu, where Thailand’s share of foreign stays exceeds 10%, Thailand appears to be one of the main markets supporting winter foreign demand.

Factors Heading into December 2026 — Flights and Visas

We have summarized the factors for winter 2026 that could be confirmed from published information. On the flight side, routes linking Narita, Chubu, Fukuoka and New Chitose with Bangkok are seeing a series of frequency increases and resumptions. The added flights at Chubu Centrair are particularly notable as movement at one of the gateways to Gifu and Nagano, where Thailand’s share is high.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from company announcements and media reports (see References and Sources at the end)

With the visa-exemption extension, short-term stays of up to 15 days from Thailand will continue under the same conditions until June 2027. Flight plans can change by airline. On the Bangkok route serving Hokkaido (New Chitose), Thai AirAsia X resumed service at 4 weekly round trips on October 1, 2026 and has announced plans to increase to daily service from December 1. Seat-capacity movements should continue to be monitored as a factor shaping winter demand in the host prefectures. For the relationship between regional airports’ international routes and nearby room supply, see ouranalysis of the winter schedule and 20 regional airports.

Implications for Operators — Capturing the December Peak Through Rate and Mix

What the statistics show is a structure in which Thai winter demand is deepest in December, and its host markets extend beyond the major cities to regional areas such as Hokkaido, Yamanashi, Gifu and Nagano. In 2025, December was the busiest month for Thai stays in Hokkaido and Gifu, while in Yamanashi and Nagano April was the busiest with December close behind. Operators in these prefectures have room to prepare foreign-market inventory allocations and pricing early.

Specifically, first, it is effective to have multilingual guidance and payment options in place for the period when the foreign guest share rises in December. Second, in regions such as Hokkaido, Gifu and Miyagi, where roughly 30% of Thai stays are concentrated in December and January, pricing for the period overlapping with year-end and New Year domestic demand should be designed separately from the periods when foreign bookings come in more easily. Third, in prefectures such as Yamanashi and Nagano, where Thailand’s share is also high in April, building both the winter and spring peaks into the year-round sales plan creates opportunities to underpin demand in periods considered off-season.

In addition, the added flights at Chubu, Narita, Fukuoka and New Chitose begin in stages from autumn 2026 through January 2027. Based on access from the gateway airports, mapping out which routes’ passengers each property is best placed to receive will also help in capturing winter demand.

Summary

Thai visitors to Japan have two peaks, in April and December, and in the accommodation statistics December is the busiest month of the year. December 2025 arrivals set an all-time single-month record, and guest nights grew +16.7% YoY. By volume, Tokyo, Osaka and Hokkaido lead, while by Thailand’s share of foreign guest nights, Yamanashi (8.19%), Nagano (5.81%) and Gifu (5.73%) exceed twice the national average. In the five winter host prefectures, estimated settled ADR was above the prior year in both December and January, and room occupancy generally held at or above the prior year in December, while in January Hokkaido and Gifu fell below the prior year. 2026 has seen many months of YoY decline since May, but with the visa-exemption extension and added winter-schedule flights, the next focus is how much of the December peak can be captured.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Which month has the most Thai visitors to Japan?
A. According to JNTO estimates, December 2025, at 174,009, is the all-time single-month high. For accommodation as well, Japan Tourism Agency statistics show December as the busiest month of the year (625,950 guest nights), with the period around Songkran in April forming the other peak.

Q. Which prefectures have the most Thai stays?
A. By 2025 guest nights, Tokyo, Osaka and Hokkaido are the top three. By Thailand’s share of foreign guest nights, Yamanashi (8.19%) is the highest, and Nagano and Gifu are also more than twice the national average (2.66%).

Q. Which prefectures see concentrated Thai demand in winter?
A. The share of annual Thai stays falling in December and January is above the national 24.2% in Hokkaido (31.0%), Gifu (31.1%) and Miyagi (30.5%).

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