Tracking MetroEngines Research’s estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent) for Tokyo hotels on a finalized-month-to-finalized-month YoY basis, city hotels (N=110 properties) came in at ¥24,650 in September 2026, down −10.3% from ¥27,467 a year earlier, and at ¥21,265 in August, down −20.6% YoY — a sharp step down over the summer. In October, however, the figure reached ¥31,731 against ¥31,970 a year earlier, narrowing the decline to just −0.7% and bringing city hotels to the brink of last year’s level after half a year in negative territory. Business hotels (N=914 properties), by contrast, were down −8.9% in August but turned positive in September at ¥13,364 (+2.2%), then posted double-digit growth in October at ¥17,491 (+14.0%). Within the same city, the depth of the summer slump and the speed of the autumn recovery clearly diverged by hotel segment. This article overlays three years of monthly series from 2024 to read changes in the seasonal shape, checks the compression of the price gap and its consistency with published operating results, and sets out what revenue managers running city and business hotels in Tokyo should check ahead of year-end and New Year pricing.

Scope: Tokyo city hotels N=104–110 properties and business hotels N=892–924 properties (varies by month). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions for both are at the end of the article. Data as of November 5, 2026.

YoY for the three finalized months — city hotels narrowed from an August low, business hotels turned around from September

First, we line up the finalized-month comparisons that form the core of this article for the most recent three months. Estimated settled ADR has two bases — past months are finalized values, while the current and future months are estimates based on sales to date — so YoY is calculated only for months where both sides are finalized. As Table 1 shows, city hotels bottomed at −20.6% in August (a difference of −¥5,504), then improved to −10.3% (−¥2,817) in September and −0.7% (−¥239) in October, with the decline shrinking by more than half each month. Business hotels moved from −8.9% (−¥1,135) in August to +2.2% (+¥292) in September, and widened their gain to +14.0% (+¥2,143) in October.

All comparisons are between finalized values. N = number of properties used to calculate estimated settled ADR. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Note that the comparison base, 2025, was a year of strong growth over 2024 for both segments. City hotels rose +13.0% YoY in August 2025, +19.3% in September and +17.5% in October — consecutive double-digit gains — so the 2026 decline partly reflects a reversal against that high base. Compared with 2024, two years earlier, city hotels in August 2026 were still −10.3% below ¥23,695, but September was +7.1% above ¥23,020 and October +16.6% above ¥27,220, putting autumn levels higher on a two-year view. For business hotels, the change versus 2024 was −3.1% in August, +11.8% in September and +31.1% in October, making the autumn gain even more pronounced. Figure 1 shows YoY for January–October 2026 by segment.

Figure 1: Tokyo estimated settled ADR, YoY (January–October 2026, finalized months). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

City hotels — above last year in January–April, six consecutive months of decline from May

Following city hotels month by month through 2026, the start of the year was actually firm. January ¥26,419 (+8.3%), February ¥25,629 (+4.0%), March ¥30,282 (+5.8%) and April ¥31,241 (+0.5%) exceeded the previous year for four straight months; the turning point came in May at ¥26,298 (−3.8%). From there the decline widened each month — −12.8% in June, −17.1% in July and −20.6% in August — before bottoming out with −10.3% in September and −0.7% in October. On a simple January–October average, 2026 is ¥26,200 versus ¥27,500 in 2025, or −4.6%, so the year as a whole remains below last year. Where the summer decline came from is examined in depth in our earlier analysis of Tokyo city hotels’ August ADR at −20.6% and business hotels at −8.9%, which overlays three years of finalized values.

Figure 2 overlays the monthly series from 2024 to 2026 on a January–December axis. While the 2025 line sits above the 2024 line in every month, the 2026 line nearly overlaps 2025 through April, falls to 2024 levels in June–August, and then rejoins the 2025 line in October. The dotted November and December points are estimates based on sales to date, not finalized values. The number of properties covered changed little — 106–110 in 2026 versus 104–107 in 2025 — so the movement cannot be explained by turnover in the sample.

Figure 2: Tokyo city hotels, estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent), monthly, year overlay. Solid line = finalized values; dotted line = estimates based on sales to date. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Business hotels — a shallower summer trough and a higher autumn peak

Business hotels in 2026 went through the same summer trough as city hotels, but it was clearly shallower. From January to May they were above last year by +0.4% to +5.7%; after three negative months — June ¥11,890 (−4.7%), July ¥12,306 (−5.3%) and August ¥11,554 (−8.9%) — they turned around in September at ¥13,364 (+2.2%). October’s ¥17,491 follows ¥13,346 in October 2024 and ¥15,348 in October 2025, a third consecutive annual rise, and the +14.0% YoY is the largest monthly gain of 2026. The January–October average was ¥14,100 in 2026 versus ¥13,800 in 2025, +1.9%, so the year as a whole is slightly above last year.

The year overlay in Figure 3 shows that business hotels have a stable seasonal shape in all three years — peaks in April and October–November, troughs in January and June–August — and in 2026 only the autumn peak has moved a step higher while that shape was preserved. While city hotels sank to −10.3% versus 2024 in August, business hotels in August were only −3.1% below 2024’s ¥11,924, and were above 2024 in June (+1.0%) and July (+4.6%).

Figure 3: Tokyo business hotels, estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent), monthly, year overlay. Solid line = finalized values; dotted line = estimates based on sales to date. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Price gap between segments — compressed from 2.1x to 1.8x, while occupancy stays high

Summarizing the two segments in a single indicator, the ratio of city to business hotel estimated settled ADR is narrowing. In 2025 it was broadly stable at around 2.1x — 2.11x in August, 2.10x in September and 2.08x in October — whereas in 2026 it fell into the 1.8x range: 1.84x in August, 1.84x in September and 1.81x in October. As city hotels lowered rates while business hotels held or raised theirs, the price bands of the upper and mid-tier segments in Tokyo’s lodging market have moved closer together. Table 2 lists the finalized months of January–October 2026 alongside the previous year.

Ratio = city ÷ business (2026 finalized values). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Whether occupancy also collapsed during the summer when rates fell needs to be checked with a different indicator. Looking at estimated OCC based on OTA-listed inventory (a fixed cohort based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the most recent date) for past months, the monthly average for Tokyo city hotels (51–54 properties / 15,932–17,294 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites) moved from 87.2% in August to 90.0% in September and 95.0% in October, while business hotels (529–561 properties / 77,620–80,960 rooms) were at 88.8% in August, 90.3% in September and 95.8% in October. Note that this estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as sold and therefore runs higher than actual occupancy, but there is at least no sign that large amounts of inventory went unsold in the summer, and the drop in city hotel rates in August can be read as conceding rate to protect occupancy. YoY occupancy is not covered in this article because observation conditions differ.

Current estimates for November and December — shown as reference values alongside last year’s finalized figures

Since finalized values do not yet exist for November onward, we limit ourselves to showing estimates based on sales to date for reference. As Table 3 shows, city hotels are estimated at ¥32,985 (N=108) for November 2026 and ¥29,036 (N=109) for December, and business hotels at ¥19,215 (N=898) for November and ¥17,336 (N=892) for December. Last year’s finalized values were ¥32,756 for November and ¥31,397 for December for city hotels, and ¥16,540 and ¥15,211 for business hotels. On the numbers, city hotels appear roughly level with last year in November and below last year in December, while business hotels appear above last year in both months; however, estimates change daily as sales progress, so a straightforward comparison with finalized values must wait until the months close. Here we limit ourselves to confirming the current state: the level recovered in October has not broken down in November. The New Year’s Eve peak and the trough through Coming of Age Day, which monthly averages cannot show, are depicted with daily prices in New Year 2026-27 hotel rates — daily peaks in 5 cities and the trough through Coming of Age Day.

November and December 2026 are estimates based on sales to date, not finalized values. YoY will be calculated once finalized. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Cross-check with published operating results — nationwide portfolio ADR also positive in September

We cross-check the direction of the estimates against published results. In the September 2026 operating results disclosed by hotel-focused REITs (Table 4), Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (ジャパン・ホテル・リート投資法人)’s 29 hotels with variable rent, etc. (total) recorded ADR of ¥20,468 (+2.3% YoY) and occupancy of 85.6%; Invincible Investment Corporation (インヴィンシブル投資法人)’s 101 domestic hotels recorded ADR of ¥15,461 (+7.6%) and occupancy of 85.2%; and Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (いちごホテルリート投資法人)’s full portfolio recorded ADR of ¥11,937 (+16.3%) and occupancy of 87.2% (all September 2026) — ADR exceeded the previous year in every case. These are actual figures for portfolios spread across Japan, not figures limited to Tokyo city hotels, but the contrast — nationwide actual ADR staying positive in September while Tokyo city hotels’ estimated settled ADR was −10.3% — suggests that the softening from summer into autumn was a price adjustment specific to Tokyo’s upper-tier segment rather than a nationwide decline in demand. Given the different roles — estimates are a leading indicator derived from OTA and other sales data, while published results are finalized actuals — the appropriate use is to check whether the two move in the same direction. How the sample designs differ, and how RM should treat months when the signs diverge, is analyzed in detail in Hotel REIT July 2026 results vs. Tokyo settled ADR: why the signs diverge.

Source: Monthly operating results disclosures of each REIT (Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation / Invincible Investment Corporation / Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation). Figures are quoted as published by each REIT

For revenue managers running city and business hotels in Tokyo — implications and action plan

All decision-trigger figures are the estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent) presented in this article. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Summary — three yardsticks

The key points of this article, which compares Tokyo’s estimated settled ADR between finalized months, come down to three. First, city hotels’ YoY decline bottomed at −20.6% in August and narrowed rapidly to −10.3% in September and −0.7% in October. The first four months of the year were positive, and only the six months from May to October were negative. Second, business hotels had a shallow summer trough (−8.9% in August) and strengthened in autumn at +2.2% in September and +14.0% in October, and as a result the price ratio between the two segments compressed from 2.1x to 1.8x. Third, given 2025’s high base (city hotels +13.0% to +19.3% YoY in August–October), autumn levels are above 2024, so a yardstick that does not judge market strength by single-year YoY alone is needed. The current estimates for November and December (city ¥32,985 and ¥29,036; business ¥19,215 and ¥17,336) remain reference values, and YoY evaluation should wait until the months are finalized.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Did Tokyo city hotels’ estimated settled ADR return to last year’s level in autumn 2026?
A. YoY between finalized values narrowed from −20.6% in August to −10.3% in September and −0.7% in October, with October at ¥31,731, close to ¥31,970 in October last year (N=109 properties). However, on a simple January–October average, 2026 is ¥26,200 versus ¥27,500 in 2025, or −4.6%, so the year as a whole remains below last year.

Q. How did the speed of recovery differ between business hotels and city hotels?
A. Business hotels had a shallow summer trough (−8.9% in August 2026, and only −3.1% versus August 2024) and strengthened in autumn at +2.2% in September and +14.0% in October. City hotels fell to 2024 levels in June–August before returning to 2025 levels in October. The YoY decline at city hotels partly reflects a reversal against the high base built by double-digit gains in 2025. This article does not identify the causes of the difference itself.

Q. Why are no YoY figures given for November and December 2026?
A. For estimated settled ADR, past months are finalized values while the current and future months are estimates based on sales to date, and the estimates change daily as sales progress. For this reason, November and December 2026 are only shown as reference values next to last year’s finalized values, and YoY will be calculated once the months close.

Q. Is the estimated OCC in this article the same as actual room occupancy?
A. No. Estimated OCC is an estimate based on how OTA-listed inventory is being absorbed, and because unlisted rooms are counted as sold it runs higher than actual occupancy. This article uses the August–October 2026 values for Tokyo city and business hotels to check whether large amounts of inventory went unsold in the summer, and does not cover YoY because observation conditions differ.

Q. How should we read the difference in direction between hotel REITs’ published results and estimated settled ADR?
A. In September 2026, the published ADR of all three hotel-focused REITs exceeded the previous year, while Tokyo city hotels’ estimated settled ADR was −10.3%. REIT figures are actuals for portfolios spread across Japan and are not limited to Tokyo. This article reads the contrast as suggesting a price adjustment specific to Tokyo’s upper-tier segment rather than a nationwide decline in demand.

About the Data

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

References and Sources

■ Data sources

Estimated settled ADR for Tokyo (tax-exclusive equivalent; 104–110 city hotels and 892–924 business hotels; monthly, January 2024–December 2026) calculated from OTA published price and inventory data continuously collected by MetroEngines Research, and estimated OCC based on OTA-listed inventory (August–October 2026; 51–54 city hotels and 529–561 business hotels). REIT operating results are from each REIT’s monthly disclosure for September 2026. Data as of November 5, 2026.

■ Calculation assumptions

YoY and comparisons with 2024 were calculated only when both months being compared are finalized values. November and December 2026 carry no YoY because they are estimates based on sales to date. January–October averages are simple averages of monthly values, and the ratio between segments is city hotels ÷ business hotels for the same month. No forecasts of final outcomes or scenarios are presented.

■ Limitations and caveats

Estimated settled ADR is estimated from OTA and other sales data and differs from each property’s actual settled prices and accounting figures. The number of properties covered varies by month. Estimated OCC runs higher than actual occupancy because unlisted rooms are counted as sold. REIT results are figures for portfolios spread across Japan, not limited to Tokyo. This article does not identify the causes of the price movements themselves.

■ Market data

• MetroEngines Research, “Estimated Settled ADR and Estimated OCC Based on OTA-Listed Inventory” (Tokyo city hotels / business hotels, data as of November 5, 2026)
• Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation, Monthly Operating Results (September 2026)
• Invincible Investment Corporation, Monthly Operating Results (September 2026)
• Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation, Monthly Operating Results (September 2026)