HotelBank Editorial Team aggregated OTA-listed inventory for Hokkaido business hotels (modal 226 properties, 26,057 rooms), and the estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) for September 2026 reached a monthly average of 92.8%. Split by day of the week of the stay date, however, Thursday stood at 95.7% against Sunday at 88.3%, a gap of 7.4 points. Excluding the five days of Silver Week (September 19–23), Sunday falls to 85.2% and the gap to Thursday widens beyond 10 points. In this “weekday-led” market, where Tuesday through Thursday fill to the same level as Saturday (94.5%), the troughs were concentrated on Sunday nights and Friday nights (91.1%). This article breaks September’s day-of-week pattern down to individual dates, checks whether the same pattern holds in early-October actuals and November booking pace, and translates the findings into practical steps for filling the Sunday and Friday troughs.
Scope: Hokkaido business hotels, N=226 properties (modal value, 26,057 rooms; 219–231 properties depending on the date). Prices in this article are the estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of: October 24, 2026.
• ADR (average daily rate) = estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying a segment-specific correction factor to the lowest-plan price level each property publishes on OTAs (per-room rate for two guests sharing one room, tax included). Cross-checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual settled prices and accounting figures.
• ADR at the area level (prefecture, city/ward) is the median of the estimated settled rates of the covered properties (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are the per-room rate for two guests sharing one room (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy) = share of sold rooms relative to total rooms in the area (estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracking OTA public prices for approx. 168,000 properties in Japan, of which approx. 27,000 have confirmed operating status)
- — Monthly average 92.8%, Thursday 95.7%, Sunday 88.3%: Hokkaido business hotels (N=226 properties) in September 2026 were weekday-led, with Tuesday–Thursday filling on par with Saturday. Excluding Silver Week (September 19–23), Sunday drops to 85.2%.
- — The troughs are Sunday and “pre-holiday / month-end Fridays”: Fridays in regular weeks reached 94.0%, but September 18 (the day before the holiday run) was 87.2% and the month-end 25th was 89.2%. The sold-out property rate was only 31.6% on Sunday versus 49.8% on Thursday.
- — November shows the same pattern: the pickup from 30 days out to the latest observation was +13.1 points for November 5 (Thu) versus +5.9 points for November 8 (Sun). Sunday selling conditions are best decided by the 30-days-out mark.
September Estimated OCC by Day of Week — Thursday Peaks, Sunday Troughs
First, we look at daily results for all 30 days of September, averaged by the day of the week of the stay date. On an all-days basis, Thursday at 95.7%, Saturday at 94.5%, Tuesday at 94.2% and Monday at 93.7% came in above the monthly average (92.8%), while Wednesday at 92.1%, Friday at 91.1% and Sunday at 88.3% fell below it. Saturday is not the highest; the fact that Tuesday and Thursday stand shoulder to shoulder with Saturday indicates that business and corporate travel, not just leisure demand, is filling weekday rooms heavily. Note up front that each day of the week has only 4–5 sample days, so a single outlier can easily move the average. June–July results showed the same pattern, with Thursday and Saturday tied at the peak and Sunday and Monday as troughs; that background is covered in Hokkaido Business Hotels Aren’t Weekend-Led: Thu 95.4% Ties Sat 95.4%.
The Wednesday figure of 92.1%, however, is heavily affected by the holiday run. September 23 (Wed, Autumnal Equinox Day) was the last day of Silver Week, and its estimated OCC of 79.6% was the lowest of the month, pulling the Wednesday average down by more than 3 points. Recalculating without the five days of Silver Week (September 19–23), Wednesday rises to 95.2%, Thursday stays at 95.7% and Tuesday is 94.7%, so the three mid-week days line up at nearly the same height, while Sunday falls to 85.2% (3 days). As a picture of a “regular week” excluding holidays, this reads as a staircase: Tuesday–Thursday around 95%, Monday and Saturday at 92–94%, Friday at 91% and Sunday at 85%.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The sold-out property rate (the estimated share of properties whose listed inventory cannot be found on OTAs and similar channels) traced the same shape. Against a monthly average of 42.2%, listed inventory disappeared at nearly half of properties mid-week — Thursday 49.8%, Tuesday 49.6%, Wednesday 47.4% — while Friday reached only 25.6% and Sunday 31.6%. In other words, Sundays and Fridays are not just days when estimated OCC is a few points lower; they are days when the share of properties that sell out drops to roughly half the mid-week level, leaving unsold inventory widely spread across the market.
| Day | Days | Est. OCC (all days) | Est. OCC (excl. SW) | Sold-out rate (all days) | Lowest / highest day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 4 | 93.7% | 92.6% (3 days) | 43.1% | 89.7% / 97.2% |
| Tuesday | 5 | 94.2% | 94.7% (4 days) | 49.6% | 90.1% / 98.3% |
| Wednesday | 5 | 92.1% | 95.2% (4 days) | 47.4% | 79.6% / 98.8% |
| Thursday | 4 | 95.7% | 95.7% (4 days) | 49.8% | 89.8% / 98.6% |
| Friday | 4 | 91.1% | 91.1% (4 days) | 25.6% | 87.2% / 94.0% |
| Saturday | 4 | 94.5% | 94.3% (3 days) | 45.0% | 92.9% / 95.9% |
| Sunday | 4 | 88.3% | 85.2% (3 days) | 31.6% | 82.5% / 97.8% |
| Monthly average | 30 | 92.8% | — | 42.2% | 79.6% / 98.8% |
September 2026, Hokkaido business hotels, N=226 properties (modal value, 26,057 rooms; 219–231 properties depending on the date). Estimated OCC on an OTA-listed inventory basis, observed the day before each stay date. Excl. SW = September 19–23 excluded. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Sundays and Fridays Date by Date — The Holiday Run Broke the Weekly Pattern
How did individual dates move behind the day-of-week averages? Sundays came in at 87.8% on September 6, 85.3% on the 13th and 82.5% on the 27th, all three below 90%; the sole exception was September 20, the middle of Silver Week, at 97.8%. In the middle of a holiday run, leisure travelers stay over on Sunday and the Sunday trough disappears, but in regular weeks the Sunday trough actually deepened toward month-end, and September 27 was the lowest day of the month apart from the 23rd, the final day of the holiday run. Two factors lie behind this: thin business demand on Sunday nights, and the fact that most leisure travelers finish their Saturday stay and spend Sunday traveling or heading home. Neither is easily filled by a business hotel’s standard plans alone.
Fridays, by contrast, sold at Saturday levels in the first half of the month, at 94.0% on both September 4 and 11. What pulled the Friday average down to 91.1% were September 18, the day before the holiday run, at 87.2%, and month-end September 25 at 89.2%. On the eve of a holiday run, business guests head home within the week while leisure travelers only start moving on Saturday, so Friday-night demand thins from both sides. The September data is better read as “holes open on pre-holiday and month-end Fridays” than as “Friday is structurally weak.”
The peak was September 16 (Wed) at 98.8%, with a sold-out property rate of 75.7% — listed inventory had disappeared at three out of four properties. September 8–10 (Tue–Thu) also lined up at 98.3–98.6%, and including September 15 (Tue) at 98.1%, the top five days of the month were all Tuesday through Thursday. In the final week after the holiday run (September 23–30), every day stayed at or below 92.9%, clearly showing the seasonal loosening of the whole market toward month-end.
| Stay date | Day / type | Est. OCC | Sold-out rate | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6 | Sun, regular week | 87.8% | 19.0% | Early-month Sunday; preceding Saturday was 95.9% |
| Sep 13 | Sun, regular week | 85.3% | 19.0% | Down 8.8pt from Saturday’s 94.1% |
| Sep 20 | Sun, mid-holiday run | 97.8% | 71.7% | The only Sunday above 90% |
| Sep 27 | Sun, regular week | 82.5% | 16.6% | Lowest of the month excluding the final holiday day |
| Sep 4 & 11 | Fri, regular week | 94.0% | 31.2% / 28.9% | Fridays that sold like Saturdays |
| Sep 18 | Fri, day before holiday run | 87.2% | 22.8% | Business guests gone, leisure guests not yet arrived |
| Sep 25 | Fri, month-end | 89.2% | 19.7% | Every day of the final week loosens |
| Sep 23 | Wed, final holiday day (Autumnal Equinox Day) | 79.6% | 15.5% | Lowest of the month; dragged down the Wednesday average |
N=219–231 properties (varies by date). Sold-out rate = estimated share of properties whose listed inventory cannot be found on OTAs and similar channels. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
October Actuals and November Booking Pace — The Sunday Trough Persists
To check whether September’s pattern was a one-off, we look at the 24 days of October 1–24 (N=217–231 properties, 26,174–28,233 rooms). The monthly average was 90.2%, 2.6 points below September, but the day-of-week ranking held almost unchanged. Wednesday at 93.6%, Thursday at 93.5% and Saturday at 93.0% were at the top, followed by Tuesday at 91.5%, with Friday at 88.6% and Sunday at 84.6% at the bottom. Monday appears low at 85.6% because October 12 (Mon, Sports Day), the final day of a three-day weekend, dropped to 77.4%; excluding that date, Monday returns to 89.7% (2 days). The Sunday–Thursday gap was 8.9 points, wider than September’s all-days figure (7.4 points).
What about November, whose stay dates have not yet arrived? The next chart overlays booking curves for the four days of November 12 (Thu) to 15 (Sun), from 45 days before the stay date to the latest observation (October 23). At 45 days out, Thursday stood at 58.7%, Friday 59.4%, Saturday 63.9% and Sunday 55.4% — every day within a 55–64% band, with a spread of only 8.5 points. At 30 days out, they were Thursday 66.9%, Friday 65.9%, Saturday 71.1% and Sunday 60.7%, and at the latest observation the spread has widened to Thursday 75.3% (20 days out), Friday 71.0% (21 days out), Saturday 75.2% (22 days out) and Sunday 63.6% (23 days out). Even allowing for the difference in remaining days, Thursday added 16.6 points over 25 days while Sunday added only 8.2 points over 22 days — close to half. Weekday bookings gain momentum as the stay date approaches while Sunday pickup stays sluggish, pointing in the same direction as the September and October actuals.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The week before, November 5 (Thu) to 8 (Sun), shows the same result. At 30 days out, Thursday stood at 65.5%, Friday 68.0%, Saturday 71.1% and Sunday 60.9%; at the latest observation they are Thursday 78.6% (13 days out), Friday 76.0% (14 days out), Saturday 77.7% (15 days out) and Sunday 66.8% (16 days out). Thursday has picked up 13.1 points from 30 days out, Sunday only 5.9 points. Given that September’s Thursday ultimately landed at 95.7% and Sunday at 88.3%, November is likely to see weekday pickup continue through the final two weeks, with the gap to Sunday widening as the stay dates approach. Note that November 1 (Sun) has tracked higher than other Sundays, at 75.6% 45 days out and 79.8% at the latest observation (9 days out), suggesting that leisure demand ahead of November 3 (Tue, Culture Day) is landing on the Sunday night.
| Stay date | Day | 45 days out | 30 days out | Latest (days remaining) | 30 days out → latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | Sun | 75.6% | 76.9% | 79.8% (9 days) | +2.9pt |
| Nov 5 | Thu | 58.0% | 65.5% | 78.6% (13 days) | +13.1pt |
| Nov 6 | Fri | 60.9% | 68.0% | 76.0% (14 days) | +8.0pt |
| Nov 7 | Sat | 63.5% | 71.1% | 77.7% (15 days) | +6.6pt |
| Nov 8 | Sun | 55.7% | 60.9% | 66.8% (16 days) | +5.9pt |
| Nov 12 | Thu | 58.7% | 66.9% | 75.3% (20 days) | +8.4pt |
| Nov 13 | Fri | 59.4% | 65.9% | 71.0% (21 days) | +5.1pt |
| Nov 14 | Sat | 63.9% | 71.1% | 75.2% (22 days) | +4.1pt |
| Nov 15 | Sun | 55.4% | 60.7% | 63.6% (23 days) | +2.9pt |
Hokkaido business hotels, N=230–231 properties / 27,896–28,233 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) from 45 days before the stay date to the latest observation (October 23, 2026). Because remaining days differ, side-by-side comparison of the latest values is for reference only. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Estimated Settled ADR Up 8.9% YoY in September — Read Prices Monthly
This article does not cover price levels by day of week, but it is worth establishing where the market’s overall rate stands. The estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent, final) for Hokkaido business hotels (N=437 properties) in September 2026 was ¥10,842, up 8.9% from the same month a year earlier (¥9,960, N=419 properties). Summer growth had been limited to ¥11,154 in July (prior year ¥10,712, +4.1%) and ¥11,328 in August (prior year ¥11,048, +2.5%), making September the month with the widest year-on-year gap across the three summer months. The fact that rates are above last year in a market filling to a 92.8% monthly average estimated OCC is consistent with nearly half of properties running out of inventory mid-week. The contrast with city hotels, which were flat at +0.1% in the same September, is explored, including the winter pricing question, in Hokkaido Sept ADR: City +0.1%, Business +8.9% After August’s −11.3%.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
From October onward, the figures are estimates based on current sales status: ¥12,047 for October (N=405 properties), ¥10,270 for November (N=397 properties) and ¥11,169 for December (N=384 properties). These values will move as each month is finalized, so a simple comparison with last year’s final figures (October ¥8,688, November ¥7,941, December ¥7,518) must wait for month-end finalization. The point to note here is direction only: after September’s rate clearly exceeded last year, the estimated settled ADR is tracking in the same ¥10,000+ range as September through autumn and early winter.
For Revenue Managers Running Business Hotels in Hokkaido — Implications and Action Plan
1. Overlay your property’s day-of-week curve on the market staircase of “Tue–Thu 95%, Fri 91%, Sun 85%.” Excluding Silver Week, September’s estimated OCC by day of week was 94.7–95.7% for Tuesday–Thursday, 92–94% for Monday and Saturday, 91.1% for Friday and 85.2% for Sunday. Line up your property’s September results on the same basis; if any day’s trough is deeper than the market’s, it is likely an issue with your own selling conditions or inventory allocation rather than demand. Conversely, if your shape matches the market, accept the depth of the trough as a market factor and move on to finding better ways to fill it.
2. Sell the Sunday trough as the “entry point to a multi-night stay.” Business guests who stay on Sunday come because they have Monday-morning commitments, so if single-night Monday demand can be extended into a two-night stay starting Sunday, Sunday nights will increase. In a market where Tuesday–Thursday fill to around 95% while Monday stays at 92–94%, there is room to attach conditions to multi-night stays — Sunday check-in through Monday, or Monday check-in through Thursday. Given that September’s sold-out property rate was 31.6% on Sunday versus 49.8% on Thursday, consider allocating inventory first to multi-night stays that include Sunday and Monday, before selling out Thursday as single nights.
3. Friday holes open only “before holidays and at month-end.” September’s Fridays on the 4th and 11th sold at Saturday levels (94.0%); only the 18th, the day before the holiday run (87.2%), and month-end on the 25th (89.2%) fell. Rather than pricing Friday uniformly as a weak day, identify the days before holiday runs and the Fridays of the final week of the month on the calendar, and fill only those dates with Friday–Saturday two-night stays or early-arrival plans aimed at leisure travelers. This fills the holes while protecting rates on Fridays that do sell.
4. Judge November pace by the “30-days-out position.” For November 5–8 and 12–15, estimated OCC at 30 days out was 60.7–60.9% for Sunday, 65.5–66.9% for Thursday and 71.1% for Saturday. Overlay your property’s booking position at 30 days out on this band; if your Sunday is below the market’s roughly 60%, that is grounds for adjusting Sunday selling conditions in the final two weeks. Thursday picked up 13.1 points from 30 days out to the latest observation (November 5), which also supports continuing not to rush mid-week sales until close in. How the Sunday trough takes shape between 30 and 14 days out is tracked for the Tokyo market in Tokyo Business Hotels’ Sunday Trough: 85.5% OCC, Fill It 30 Days Out.
| Horizon | Action | Decision trigger (figures from this article) | Aim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today – this week | Tabulate your property’s September and October results by day of week and overlay them on the market staircase | If your Sunday is deeper than the market (85.2% excl. SW; 84.6% in October) and your Thursday shallower than the market (95.7%; 93.5%), review allocation | Separate whether the trough is a market factor or a property factor |
| Today – this week | Check your booking status for November 8 and 15 (Sun) | Market latest values: Nov 8 at 66.8% (16 days out), Nov 15 at 63.6% (23 days out). If you are below these, move Sunday conditions first | Fill Sundays early, since their pickup in the final two weeks is sluggish |
| Within 2 weeks | Design multi-night conditions limited to Sunday check-in (Sun→Mon, Sun→Tue) and allocate them ahead of Thursday inventory | As long as September’s sold-out rate gap persists (Thursday 49.8% vs. Sunday 31.6%), shift inventory to multi-night stays before selling out Thursday as single nights | Pull Monday business demand forward into Sunday nights |
| Within 2 weeks | Offer corporate clients and travel arrangers “night-before (Sunday check-in)” terms | In a market where Tuesday–Thursday fill to around 95% and last-minute availability is hard to secure, a guaranteed Sunday check-in is an advantage for arrangers | Shift part of weekday demand to Sunday |
| Toward next month | Identify pre-holiday and month-end Fridays on the calendar and prepare Fri–Sat two-night and early-arrival plans for those dates only | In September, regular Fridays were 94.0% vs. 87.2% the day before the holiday run and 89.2% at month-end. Check whether Fridays with the same structure fall next month | Fill only the holes while protecting rates on Fridays that sell |
| Toward next month | Plan sales for the final day of holiday runs as a separate track | September 23 (final day of the holiday run) at 79.6% and October 12 (final day of a three-day weekend) at 77.4% were each month’s lowest day | Keep the month’s lowest day from being buried in the day-of-week average |
Illustrative examples based on figures in this article. Effects vary with each property’s location and guest mix.
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Days of the Week
The Hokkaido business hotel market was weekday-led in September, with a monthly average estimated OCC of 92.8% and Tuesday–Thursday filling to around 95%, the same as Saturday; the troughs were concentrated on Sunday (88.3% all days, 85.2% excluding the holiday run) and some Fridays (87.2% the day before the holiday run, 89.2% at month-end). October 1–24 kept the same ranking, with Sunday at 84.6% and Thursday at 93.5%, and November booking pace also shows Sunday 4.6–6.2 points below Thursday at 30 days out, with pickup to the latest observation less than half of Thursday’s. Prices are read monthly only: September’s estimated settled ADR was ¥10,842, up 8.9% year on year, a month in which high occupancy and rising rates advanced together.
As reusable yardsticks, first, look at “day-of-week averages excluding holiday runs.” September’s Wednesday differed by 3 points — 92.1% on all days versus 95.2% excluding the holiday run — so discussing days of the week with holiday runs included understates mid-week strength. Second, read “the day-of-week gap in sold-out property rate” alongside OCC. Even when the estimated OCC gap is 7 points, the share of properties that sell out differs sharply — 49.8% on Thursday versus 31.6% on Sunday — and this shows more clearly on which days unsold inventory is thickest across the market. Third, look at “the 30-days-out position and the pickup to the latest observation” as a set. Mid-week days can pick up 10 points or more from 30 days out to the latest observation, while Sunday grows by only a few points, so Sunday measures need to be decided by the 30-days-out mark.
About the Data
| Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) | OTA-listed-inventory-based occupancy = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date). It is an estimate based on the absorption of inventory sold on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (rooms not listed are counted as absorbed, so it tends to read high). Daily values for September and October are observed the day before each stay date. Day-of-week figures are simple averages by the day of the week of the stay date, with 3–5 sample days per day of week. |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest. November coverage N=230–231 properties / 27,896–28,233 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). Latest observation date: October 23, 2026. |
| Estimated settled ADR | The settled price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × segment factor, an ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are final values; current and future months are estimates based on current sales status. Median error against published operating results is 6.6%. Hokkaido, business hotel segment: September 2026 N=437 properties, September 2025 N=419 properties, October–December 2026 N=384–405 properties (current estimates, subject to change). Because the monthly figure is canonical, prices by day of week are not covered. |
| Sold-out property rate | Estimated share of properties whose listed inventory cannot be found on OTAs and similar channels. Calculated on the same set of properties as estimated OCC. |
| Coverage | Business hotels in Hokkaido. September 2026: modal 226 properties, 26,057 rooms (219–231 properties, 25,308–27,296 rooms depending on the date); October 1–24, 2026: 217–231 properties, 26,174–28,233 rooms. Silver Week was the five days from September 19 (Sat) to 23 (Wed, Autumnal Equinox Day), 2026 (September 21 was Respect for the Aged Day; the 22nd was a holiday under Article 3, Paragraph 3 of the National Holidays Act). |
| Data as of | Data as of: October 24, 2026. Because sales status and inventory change daily, the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team |
References and Sources
| Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, “National Holidays” (national holidays and observances for 2026) (Japanese) | https://www8.cao.go.jp/chosei/shukujitsu/gaiyou.html |
| HotelBank, “Hokkaido Business Hotels Aren’t Weekend-Led: Thu 95.4% Ties Sat 95.4%” (August 2026, related article) | https://en.hotelbank.jp/?p=4396 |
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