The 95th Tsuchiura All Japan Fireworks Competition (土浦全国花火競技大会) is scheduled for Saturday, November 7, 2026, with the competition starting at 5:30 p.m. and ending at 8:00 p.m.; in case of stormy weather it will be postponed to Saturday, November 14 (organizer: Tsuchiura All Japan Fireworks Competition Executive Committee; venue: the banks of the Sakura River near Gakuen-Ohashi Bridge). When the HotelBank Editorial Team checked the booking curves for Tsuchiura City (N=11 properties, 933 rooms) and Tsukuba City (N=21 properties, 1,295 rooms) as of October 21, Tsuchiura City’s November 7 had already reached an estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) of 99.8% and a sold-out property rate of 90.9% at 45 days before the stay date, and even at the latest point, 18 days out, it stood at 99.5%, leaving almost no room to move. Neighboring Tsukuba City has also built up from 95.2% at 45 days out to 98.1% at the latest point, absorbing overflow demand across the city line. Meanwhile, the rain date of November 14 is running at 90.8% in Tsuchiura City and 92.0% in Tsukuba City (both at 25 days out), more than 10pt above a normal Saturday (October 31 at the same 25 days out: Tsuchiura 74.2%, Tsukuba 76.1%). This article lines up the curves for the event day, the rain date and the surrounding weeks, and sets out, from an operator’s perspective, how to hold rain-date inventory before the go/no-go decision.
Scope: Tsuchiura City, Ibaraki Prefecture, all property types, N=11 properties (933 rooms); Tsukuba City, all property types, N=21 properties (1,295 rooms). The price metric in this article is the estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent), and occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of October 21, 2026 (observations through October 20).
• ADR (Average Daily Rate) = estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying a property-type correction factor to the lowest plan level each property publishes on OTAs (per-room rate for 2 guests in 1 room, tax included). Cross-checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is approx. 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual transaction prices and accounting figures.
• ADR at the area level (prefecture or municipality) is the median of the estimated settled rates of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for 2 guests in 1 room (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy rate) = share of rooms sold out of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracking OTA published prices for approx. 168,000 properties in Japan, of which approx. 27,000 have verified occupancy data)
- — 99.8% Tsuchiura City on November 7 (event day) was at an estimated OCC of 99.8% with a sold-out property rate of 90.9% at 45 days out (September 23, 2026). At 18 days out (October 20) it was still 99.5% with 5 rooms left: sales were essentially over before the observation window began.
- — +2.9pt Tsukuba City’s event day rose from 95.2% at 45 days out to 98.1% at 18 days out (as of October 20, 2026). The 7 properties still selling, with 24 rooms between them, are absorbing Tsuchiura’s overflow demand.
- — +11.1 to +22.3pt The rain date, November 14, stands at Tsuchiura 90.8% and Tsukuba 92.0% at 25 days out (October 20, 2026), above normal Saturdays (October 24 and 31) at the same point, and likely includes insurance bookings.
- — 12-18% If all of Tsuchiura City’s excess were insurance bookings, it would equal 12-18% of the 847 rooms already booked. Reselling half of the cancellations that follow a go decision would also halve the drop (Table 4, illustrative calculation).
- — ¥7,062 The price yardstick is the finalized estimated settled ADR for November 2025 (Tsuchiura City business hotels ¥7,062, +4.0% YoY; Tsukuba City ¥7,986, +3.7%). November 2026 is not yet finalized.
Event Day, November 7 — Tsuchiura City Effectively Sold Out at 45 Days Out, Tsukuba City Is Taking the Overflow
Start with the event-day curve. Tsuchiura City (N=11 properties, 933 rooms) entered the start of the observation window for November 7, 45 days out (September 23, 2026), at an estimated OCC of 99.8% with 2 listed rooms remaining and a sold-out property rate of 90.9% (10 of 11 properties). At 30 days out (October 8) some inventory came back, briefly pulling the figure down to 98.4% with 15 rooms left, but it was absorbed again to 99.7% by 25 days out, and at the latest point, 18 days out (October 20), it stands at 99.5% with 5 rooms left and a sold-out property rate of 81.8%. In other words, Tsuchiura City’s event day was already past the point where the curve rises; the only movement within the 45-day window was a small wave of returned inventory being resold.
Tsukuba City (N=21 properties, 1,295 rooms), by contrast, started at 95.2% with 62 rooms left and a sold-out property rate of 66.7% at 45 days out, then moved to 97.7% with 30 rooms left at 30 days out and 98.1% with 24 rooms left at 18 days out, adding +2.9pt within the observation window. The sold-out property rate held flat at 66.7% (14 of 21 properties), with the remaining 7 properties continuing to sell a combined 24 rooms. One reading is that Tsuchiura City filled first and the overflow has kept eating into Tsukuba City’s remaining rooms since 45 days out. The pattern of the host city filling first and a neighboring city taking the overflow also matches the Kamiari Festival (Nov 18) case of Izumo and Matsue, where Izumo City stayed at 100% from 45 days out while Matsue City kept selling its remaining rooms.
Comparing with the Saturdays before and after makes the event day’s distinctiveness clear. The previous Saturday, October 31, was at Tsuchiura 61.6% and Tsukuba 64.8% at 45 days out, 38.2pt lower in Tsuchiura and 30.4pt lower in Tsukuba than the event day at the same point (99.8% and 95.2%). October 31 then built up to 69.7% and 70.7% at 30 days out (Tsuchiura and Tsukuba, in that order hereafter) and 82.2% and 81.7% at the latest point, 11 days out, so on a normal Saturday this is a market that adds around +20pt between 45 days out and the latest point. The event day had absorbed that pickup well before the window opened. Akita Prefecture on the day of the Omagari Fireworks (August 29, 2026), which had already reached 97.8% at 45 days out, followed the same pattern; how to design for demand days with no room left to add is covered in Omagari Fireworks: Akita 97.8% OCC 45 Days Out.
Source: Prepared by the HotelBank Editorial Team based on MetroEngines Research
The following day, Sunday, November 8, looks entirely different. Tsuchiura City moved from 52.7% at 45 days out to 54.7% at 19 days out, and Tsukuba City from 62.9% to 68.7%, staying 44.8pt and 29.4pt below the event day respectively. Most fireworks visitors stay one night and go home, so this is not a day on which multi-night demand comes along naturally.
Source: Prepared by the HotelBank Editorial Team based on MetroEngines Research
| Area (N) | Stay date | 45 days out | 30 days out | Latest | Rooms left (latest) | Sold-out property rate (latest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tsuchiura City (11 properties, 933 rooms) | 10/31 (Sat) previous week | 61.6% | 69.7% | 82.2% (11 days out) | 166 rooms | 36.4% |
| Tsuchiura City | 11/7 (Sat) event day | 99.8% | 98.4% | 99.5% (18 days out) | 5 rooms | 81.8% |
| Tsuchiura City | 11/8 (Sun) day after | 52.7% | 47.7% | 54.7% (19 days out) | 423 rooms | 18.2% |
| Tsuchiura City | 11/14 (Sat) rain date | 83.9% | 87.8% | 90.8% (25 days out) | 86 rooms | 18.2% |
| Tsukuba City (21 properties, 1,295 rooms) | 10/31 (Sat) previous week | 64.8% | 70.7% | 81.7% (11 days out) | 237 rooms | 28.6% |
| Tsukuba City | 11/7 (Sat) event day | 95.2% | 97.7% | 98.1% (18 days out) | 24 rooms | 66.7% |
| Tsukuba City | 11/8 (Sun) day after | 62.9% | 62.9% | 68.7% (19 days out) | 405 rooms | 9.5% |
| Tsukuba City | 11/14 (Sat) rain date | 86.9% | 90.5% | 92.0% (25 days out) | 104 rooms | 42.9% |
Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory). The sold-out property rate is the estimated share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs and similar channels. Observations through October 20, 2026.
Source: Prepared by the HotelBank Editorial Team based on MetroEngines Research
Rain Date, November 14 — Reading It as a Saturday Carrying “Insurance Bookings”
Next, the rain date. Tsuchiura City’s Saturday, November 14 began observation at 83.9% at 45 days out (September 30), dipped to 79.0% at 40 days out as inventory came back, and then rebuilt to 85.3% at 35 days out, 87.8% at 30 days out and 90.8% with 86 rooms left at the latest point, 25 days out (October 20). The sold-out property rate is 18.2% (2 of 11 properties); in contrast to 81.8% for the event day, most properties are still selling (for the difference between what estimated OCC and the sold-out property rate measure, see Estimated OCC vs Sell-Out Rate). Tsukuba City’s November 14 also rose from 86.9% at 45 days out to 90.5% at 30 days out and 92.0% with 104 rooms left at 25 days out, with a sold-out property rate of 42.9% (9 of 21 properties).
Whether this level is high or low is easier to judge against normal Saturdays at the same 25 days out. At 25 days out, October 31 was at Tsuchiura 74.2% and Tsukuba 76.1%, and October 24 at Tsuchiura 79.7% and Tsukuba 69.7%, so the rain date is running +11.1 to +16.6pt above them in Tsuchiura and +15.9 to +22.3pt in Tsukuba. With the go/no-go for the fireworks not yet decided, at least part of this gap can be read as bookings made in case the event day is called off, that is, inventory held as insurance. Note, however, that in Tsukuba City Saturday, November 21 is also high at 87.1% at 45 days out and 89.2% at the latest point, 32 days out (the Tsukuba Marathon is held the next day, the 22nd), so Saturdays in mid-November carry strong demand to begin with.
The other yardstick is where Saturdays that sold through to the last minute landed. Looking at Saturdays from September 12 to October 17 (Table 2) by estimated OCC on the day before the stay, Tsuchiura City ranged from 79.6% (September 12) to 99.1% (October 10), and Tsukuba City from 71.8% (September 26) to 97.9% (October 10). At 25 days out, the rain date has already come close to the middle of the range that ordinary Saturdays reach on the day before, so how the remaining rooms are sold before the go/no-go decision will shape both the rain date’s rate and its occupancy.
| Saturday (stay date) | Tsuchiura City, day before | Tsuchiura City N | Tsukuba City, day before | Tsukuba City N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12 | 79.6% | 10 properties, 843 rooms | 73.3% | 22 properties, 1,478 rooms |
| September 19 (first day of 5-day holiday) | 95.4% | 10 properties, 843 rooms | 95.0% | 23 properties, 1,492 rooms |
| September 26 | 91.2% | 10 properties, 843 rooms | 71.8% | 23 properties, 1,492 rooms |
| October 3 | 97.0% | 10 properties, 843 rooms | 97.8% | 21 properties, 1,295 rooms |
| October 10 (first day of 3-day weekend) | 99.1% | 11 properties, 933 rooms | 97.9% | 21 properties, 1,295 rooms |
| October 17 | 88.4% | 11 properties, 933 rooms | 88.4% | 21 properties, 1,295 rooms |
Estimated OCC as of the day before the stay date (based on OTA-listed inventory). The number of properties covered differs by date and is shown in each row.
Source: Prepared by the HotelBank Editorial Team based on MetroEngines Research
The Price Yardstick — With No Finalized November Figures Yet, Keep the 2024 and 2025 Finalized ADRs at Hand
Prices need careful handling. The estimated settled ADR for November 2026 exists only as an estimate based on current sales, and any simple comparison with finalized figures should wait until the month is finalized. This article therefore limits itself to checking, with finalized figures, where November, the month that includes the fireworks, sat over the past two years. The estimated settled ADR for business hotels in Tsuchiura City (N=18 properties) was ¥7,062 in November 2025 against ¥6,793 in November 2024, +4.0% YoY, and October also rose +6.3% from ¥6,058 to ¥6,442, with 2025 higher in both months. Business hotels in Tsukuba City (N=20-21 properties) moved in the same direction, from ¥7,700 in November 2024 to ¥7,986 in November 2025 (+3.7%), and from ¥6,854 to ¥7,240 in October (+5.6%).
Looking at the full-year shape, November was Tsuchiura City’s highest month of 2024 and in 2025 ranked behind only April and May, showing that the month containing the fireworks weekend forms a rate peak. In Tsukuba City, too, November was the second-highest month in both years. In 2026, the finalized months through September have ranged from ¥5,952 to ¥6,795 in Tsuchiura City and ¥6,785 to ¥7,723 in Tsukuba City; with event-day sales now essentially over, how far November’s finalized figure clears this peak will depend largely on how the rain date and the surrounding weeks are sold.
Source: Prepared by the HotelBank Editorial Team based on MetroEngines Research
| Area / category | Month | 2024 (finalized) | 2025 (finalized) | YoY | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tsuchiura City business hotels | October | ¥6,058 | ¥6,442 | +6.3% | 18 |
| Tsuchiura City business hotels | November | ¥6,793 | ¥7,062 | +4.0% | 18 |
| Tsukuba City business hotels | October | ¥6,854 | ¥7,240 | +5.6% | 20-21 |
| Tsukuba City business hotels | November | ¥7,700 | ¥7,986 | +3.7% | 20-21 |
Estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent). All comparisons are between finalized months.
Source: Prepared by the HotelBank Editorial Team based on MetroEngines Research
Sensitivity Analysis — How Far Cancellations and Resales After the Go Decision Could Move the Rain Date’s Landing
How much of the rain date’s excess is “insurance bookings” cannot be separated directly from the observed data. So we restated the size of the excess as a share of rooms already booked and mechanically converted how far the estimated OCC for November 14 would move if those bookings were cancelled after the November 7 event is confirmed and some of them were resold (Table 4). As of October 20, 2026 (25 days out), Tsuchiura City’s November 14 is at an estimated OCC of 90.8% with 847 rooms booked, and the gap to normal Saturdays at the same 25 days out (October 24 at 79.7%, October 31 at 74.2%) is +11.1 to +16.6pt, or roughly 104-155 rooms. That equals 12-18% of the 847 booked rooms, which corresponds broadly to the 10-15% cancellation rows in Table 4.
In those rows, with a 0% resale rate, Tsuchiura City’s November 14 would fall back to the 77-82% range on a 25-days-out basis, in line with a normal Saturday; with 50% resold, it would hold in the 84-86% range (Tsukuba City: 78-83% in the same rows, 85-87% with 50% resold). In other words, how many of the rooms that come back right after the go decision can be caught decides whether the rain date lands at a normal-Saturday level or stays at a high-demand level. Table 4 does not include the normal pickup after 25 days out (October 31 rose +8.0pt, from 74.2% at 25 days out to 82.2% at 11 days out), so the actual landing could come in higher. Conversely, if November 7 is postponed due to stormy weather, November 14 becomes the event day itself and no cancellations occur.
| Cancellation rate (share of booked rooms) | Resale 0% | Resale 25% | Resale 50% | Resale 75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancel 0% | 90.8% / 92.0% | 90.8% / 92.0% | 90.8% / 92.0% | 90.8% / 92.0% |
| Cancel 5% | 86.2% / 87.4% | 87.4% / 88.5% | 88.5% / 89.7% | 89.6% / 90.8% |
| Cancel 10% | 81.7% / 82.8% | 84.0% / 85.1% | 86.2% / 87.4% | 88.5% / 89.7% |
| Cancel 15% | 77.2% / 78.2% | 80.6% / 81.6% | 84.0% / 85.1% | 87.4% / 88.5% |
| Cancel 20% | 72.6% / 73.6% | 77.2% / 78.2% | 81.7% / 82.8% | 86.2% / 87.4% |
| Cancel 25% | 68.1% / 69.0% | 73.8% / 74.7% | 79.4% / 80.5% | 85.1% / 86.2% |
The starting point is the number of rooms booked for November 14 as of October 20, 2026 (25 days out): 847 rooms in Tsuchiura City (933 rooms − 86 remaining) and 1,191 rooms in Tsukuba City (1,295 rooms − 104 remaining). Each cell is a mechanical conversion that deducts only the cancelled rooms that could not be resold; it excludes the normal pickup after 25 days out and any newly listed inventory. This is an illustrative calculation, not a forecast.
Source: Calculated by the HotelBank Editorial Team based on MetroEngines Research
For Revenue Managers Running Hotels in Tsuchiura and Tsukuba — Implications and Action Plan
Operator Insights
1. The event day is no longer a time to “sell” but to “protect.” With Tsuchiura City at 5 rooms left and a sold-out property rate of 81.8% at the latest point, and Tsukuba City at 24 rooms left, what moves revenue from here is not further price increases but a resale path that does not miss returned cancellations, plus thorough confirmation contacts to guard against no-shows. If your property has not yet sold out the event day, there may be room to revisit the value of the remaining rooms on the premise that the market is at this level.
2. The rain date’s 90.8% (Tsuchiura) and 92.0% (Tsukuba) very likely include insurance bookings waiting on the go/no-go decision. For the 2025 (Reiwa 7) competition, the official FAQ states that the go/no-go announcement was planned to be brought forward from around 9:00 a.m. on the day before the original date to around 6:00 p.m. two days before (October 30); if 2026 follows the same practice, who captures the inventory that comes back right after the decision will make the difference in revenue. Now is the time to line up your property’s cancellation policy (charges for the day before and the day of) and your readiness to resell right after the decision.
3. The day after, Sunday, November 8, shows thin second-night demand at Tsuchiura 54.7% and Tsukuba 68.7%. Selling the following night to event-day guests (multi-night offers or late checkout) is one of the few levers for filling the next day without diluting the event day’s high rate.
4. Even with Tsukuba City at 98.1% for the event day, 7 properties still have rooms, so the final receptacle for overflow demand is on the Tsukuba side. Saturday, November 21, the eve of the Tsukuba Marathon, is also strong at 87.1% from 45 days out; with high-demand Saturdays lined up back to back in November, it is more consistent to build the pricing calendar by weekend rather than by single day.
| Timing | Action | Trigger (figures in this article) | Aim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today to this week | Confirm a path to resell returned cancellations for the 11/7 event day immediately | Your property has more event-day rooms left than the market (Tsuchiura 5 rooms, Tsukuba 24 rooms) | Avoid missing returned inventory |
| Today to this week | Reset minimum length of stay and flexible cancellation terms on remaining 11/14 rain-date rooms | Your 11/14 is below the market’s 25-days-out level (Tsuchiura 90.8%, Tsukuba 92.0%) | Balance the rate of insurance bookings against the risk of them leaving |
| Within 2 weeks (until the go/no-go decision) | Offer multi-night deals and late checkout for 11/8 (Sun) to event-day guests | Your 11/8 is as open as the market (Tsuchiura 54.7%, Tsukuba 68.7%) | Fill the next day without undercutting the event-day rate |
| Within 2 weeks (until the go/no-go decision) | Check the time of the go/no-go announcement in official notices, and set resale prices and inventory-release steps for right after it | Many of your 11/14 bookings are still within the free-cancellation period under your policy | Catch the inventory that returns right after the decision |
| Looking to next month (mid-to-late November) | Build a weekend-level pricing calendar for November Saturdays, including 11/14 and 11/21 | Your 11/21 is lagging the Tsukuba market (87.1% at 45 days out) | Avoid missing back-to-back high-demand Saturdays |
| Looking to next month (month-end) | Compare November’s finalized ADR with the same month last year (Tsuchiura ¥7,062, Tsukuba ¥7,986) and review it by whether the event was postponed | When the monthly estimated settled ADR is finalized | Keep a yardstick for designing next year’s reserve date |
Market figures are as of the data date of this article. Comparing them with your own property’s figures is only a starting point for consideration and does not guarantee results.
Summary — Three Yardsticks Around the Fireworks
First, the event day, November 7, was decided before the 45-day observation window opened, with Tsuchiura City in the 99% range from 45 days out and Tsukuba City at 98.1% at the latest point. Second, the rain date, November 14, is at Tsuchiura 90.8% and Tsukuba 92.0% (25 days out), more than 10pt above normal Saturdays at the same point, and how inventory returning around the go/no-go decision is handled will make the difference in revenue. Third, on price, with no finalized November figures yet, the sensible course is to use the finalized November 2025 ADR (Tsuchiura ¥7,062, Tsukuba ¥7,986, both business hotels) as the yardstick and wait for the month-end figures. With these three points at hand, consider protecting the event day, designing the rain date and the day after, and building the calendar by weekend.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. When are the event date and rain date for the 2026 Tsuchiura All Japan Fireworks Competition?
A. The 95th competition is scheduled for Saturday, November 7, 2026, starting at 5:30 p.m. and ending at 8:00 p.m.; in case of stormy weather it will be postponed to Saturday, November 14 (organizer’s official website, “Event Overview”). The venue is the banks of the Sakura River near Gakuen-Ohashi Bridge.
Q. How much hotel inventory is left in Tsuchiura City for the fireworks night, November 7?
A. As observed on October 20, 2026 (18 days out), Tsuchiura City (N=11 properties, 933 rooms) had an estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) of 99.5%, 5 listed rooms remaining and a sold-out property rate of 81.8%. Neighboring Tsukuba City (N=21 properties, 1,295 rooms) was also at 98.1% with 24 rooms left; sales are essentially over in both cities.
Q. Why are there more bookings for the rain date, November 14, than for a normal Saturday?
A. As of October 20, 2026 (25 days out), Tsuchiura City is at 90.8% and Tsukuba City at 92.0%, +11.1 to +16.6pt above October 24 and 31 at the same 25 days out in Tsuchiura and +15.9 to +22.3pt in Tsukuba. Before the go/no-go is decided, some of these are likely insurance bookings made in case the event day is called off. Note also that Tsukuba City has the Tsukuba Marathon on November 22, so Saturdays in mid-November carry strong demand to begin with.
Q. When will the go/no-go decision be announced?
A. For the 2025 (Reiwa 7) competition, the official website’s FAQ states that the go/no-go announcement was planned to be brought forward from around 9:00 a.m. on the day before the original date to around 6:00 p.m. two days before. As of October 21, 2026, the official FAQ had not been updated for the 2026 competition, so please check the official notices.
Q. Is the day after the fireworks, Sunday, November 8, an easy day to sell?
A. As observed on October 20, 2026 (19 days out), Tsuchiura City was at 54.7% and Tsukuba City at 68.7%, 44.8pt and 29.4pt below the event day’s latest figures. Since most fireworks visitors stay one night and go home, designs that fill the next day without undercutting the event-day rate, such as offering multi-night deals or late checkout to event-day guests, are likely to be effective.
About the Data
| Definition of estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory): OTA-listed-inventory occupancy = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed rooms remaining ÷ total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; N in this article is the number of those properties). It is an estimate based on how inventory sold on OTAs is being absorbed and differs in definition from actual room occupancy (rooms not listed are counted as sold, so it runs high). |
| Booking curves: based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest point. Fixed points are 45 days out, 30 days out and the latest. |
| Estimated settled ADR: the settled price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest plan level × property-type factor, ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are finalized figures; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Cross-checked against published operating results, the median error is 6.6%. This article cites finalized months only (2024, 2025, and January-September 2026). |
| Scope: booking curves cover Tsuchiura City, all property types, N=11 properties, 933 rooms, and Tsukuba City, all property types, N=21 properties, 1,295 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites; fixed cohort per stay date). For September-October Saturdays, the properties covered differ by date and are shown in the table. Estimated settled ADR covers Tsuchiura City business hotels, N=17-19 properties, and Tsukuba City business hotels, N=16-22 properties. |
| Data as of: October 21, 2026 (booking-curve observations through October 20). Sales and inventory change daily, so the figures in this article are a snapshot as of the data date. |
References and Sources
■ Data sources
Daily observations of OTA-published inventory and prices by MetroEngines Research (fixed cohorts by stay date: Tsuchiura City 11 properties, 933 rooms; Tsukuba City 21 properties, 1,295 rooms; observations through October 20, 2026), and the estimated settled ADR for business hotels based on the same data (finalized months, January 2024 to September 2026). The competition schedule, postponement rule and go/no-go announcement practice are from the organizer’s official website; the Tsukuba Marathon date is from that event’s official website.
■ Calculation assumptions
Table 4 is a mechanical conversion of estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory), starting from the rooms booked for November 14 as of October 20, 2026 (25 days out) (Tsuchiura City 847 rooms, Tsukuba City 1,191 rooms = total rooms − listed rooms remaining), assuming that 0-25% of bookings are cancelled after the November 7 event is confirmed and that 0-75% of those are resold by the stay date. It excludes the normal pickup after 25 days out and any newly listed inventory.
■ Limitations and caveats
Estimated OCC is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory and counts unlisted rooms as sold, so it runs higher than actual room occupancy. How much of the rain date’s excess is insurance bookings cannot be identified directly from the observed data, and in Tsukuba City demand on mid-November Saturdays, including November 21 (the eve of the Tsukuba Marathon), is strong to begin with. In Table 2 the properties covered differ by date, and Tsukuba City’s September 5 (64.5%; no observation for Tsuchiura City on that date) is not shown so that the two cities line up. Estimated settled ADR for October 2026 onward is not cited, as it is still an in-progress estimate.
| Tsuchiura All Japan Fireworks Competition official website, “Event Overview” (in Japanese) (Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Reiwa 8), competition from 5:30 p.m. to around 8:00 p.m.; postponed to Saturday the 14th in case of stormy weather; venue: banks of the Sakura River near Gakuen-Ohashi Bridge) |
| Same, official website, “FAQ (About the Competition)” (in Japanese) (held rain or shine, postponed in stormy weather; approx. 20,000 shells; states that for the 2025 (Reiwa 7) competition, the go/no-go announcement was planned to move from around 9:00 a.m. the day before to around 6:00 p.m. two days before) |
| JR East Media, “Tsuchiura All Japan Fireworks Competition” (in Japanese) (updated October 16, 2026; postponed to Saturday, November 14, 2026 in case of stormy weather) |
| Tsukuba Marathon official website (held November 22, 2026) |
Further Reading
- Himeji Fighting Festival Eve: Weekday OCC, 2x Sell-Out Rate
- Kamiari Festival Nov 18: Izumo 100% OCC from T-45, Matsue Has Rooms (stays on November 18, 2026)
- Omagari Fireworks: Akita 97.8% OCC 45 Days Out, Only 2.2pt Headroom (stays on August 29, 2026)
- 94.5% Sold 45 Days Out: Omagari Fireworks vs a Normal Akita Weekend
- Ibaraki Silver Week: Ryokan-Business Hotel Gap Hits 21.9pt
- Estimated OCC vs Sell-Out Rate: Reading Tokyo Booking Curves Across 3 Property Types
- Booking Curves Across 47 Prefectures: +4.1pt Median Pickup from 45 Days Out
- Ibaraki September Booking Curves by Property Type: Peak on Sep 19-21