The Royal Park Hotel (ザ ロイヤルパークホテル) in Otemachi, Hakodate, announced by Mitsubishi Estate Hotels & Resorts (三菱地所ホテルズ&リゾーツ) in May 2025, will be an 11-storey building with about 200 rooms, a view restaurant and a bathing facility, and is scheduled to open in summer 2027. It will be the company’s second property in Hokkaido. Otemachi, which looks out over Hakodate Bay and Mount Hakodate, sits between Hakodate Station and the Bay Area, and has 39 operating lodging facilities with 5,060 rooms within a 1 km radius. This article examines which price band these roughly 200 rooms are likely to land in, and how much absorption capacity the existing room stock has, using the room-count trend within 1 km of the Bay Area, Hakodate City’s monthly estimated settled ADR, zoning and disaster assumptions, and a required-ADR sensitivity per 100 rooms.

The room stock in this article covers lodging facilities with 10 or more rooms (excluding leisure/love hotels) within a 1,000 m radius of Otemachi, Hakodate (around the planned site of The Royal Park Hotel Hakodate). “Operating” refers to facilities whose selling prices were confirmed on major booking sites in the latest 3 months (August–October 2026) (as of October 26, 2026, compiled by MetroEngines Research). Booking curves and occupancy (OTA listed-inventory basis, estimated) use only observations within a 45-day lead time, and the number of properties and rooms covered is stated each time.

Project Overview — What Has Been Announced Is “11 Storeys, ~200 Rooms, Summer 2027”

The primary source is a report by Travel Voice (トラベルボイス) on May 30, 2025, stating that Mitsubishi Estate Hotels & Resorts plans to open “The Royal Park Hotel” in Otemachi, Hakodate in summer 2027. The building will have 11 storeys above ground and about 200 rooms, and is planned to include a restaurant and a bathing facility that make the most of the views. The brand belongs to the “THE Series,” one of the three lines of Royal Park Hotels. The exterior is inspired by a sheer, vertical quay wall, and the hotel aims to let guests experience the sea, the mountain, and Hakodate’s history as a trading port.

On the other hand, the lot number, gross floor area, project owner (owner of the land and building), official room count and opening date have not been announced at this time. This article treats the published descriptions “about 200 rooms” and “summer 2027” as they are and does not supplement them with estimates. The company’s first Hokkaido property was The Royal Park Canvas Sapporo Odori Park (ザ ロイヤルパーク キャンバス 札幌大通公園), which opened in October 2021, making Hakodate its second property after Sapporo.

Hakodate Lodging Market — A Record 5.04 Million Guest-Nights and a 1.7x Seasonal Gap Between August ¥11,000 and March ¥6,400

Let us start with demand. According to estimates published by Hakodate City on May 29, 2026, tourist arrivals in FY2025 rose 0.6% year on year to 6.058 million, a record for the second consecutive year since statistics began in FY1955. Overnight guest-nights rose 6.7% to 5.043 million, also a record, and foreign overnight guests numbered about 579,000 (+1.9% YoY). Increased Haneda flights and cruise ship calls were reported as contributing factors. The fact that lodging demand is growing faster than arrivals is a key premise for the market that will absorb the new 200 rooms.

What about pricing? Hakodate City’s estimated settled ADR compiled by MetroEngines Research (all segments, median of covered properties, N=80–88 properties) averaged ¥8,600 over the 12 months from October 2025 to September 2026, with a peak of ¥11,000 in August 2026 and a trough of ¥6,400 in March 2026 — a 1.72x gap between summer and winter. The year-over-year overlay chart shows the same shape in all three years: a step up in April, a peak in August, a decline from October and a bottom in February–March. Hakodate’s lodging prices move almost exactly with tourism seasonality. In 2026, July–August came in below the prior year (August ¥12,500 → ¥11,000), while September was roughly flat (¥10,200 → ¥10,300). For Hokkaido as a whole, August was −5.1% YoY and September +4.5%, so the height of the summer peak varies from year to year. A summer 2027 opening would place the hotel’s first month inside this seasonal peak.

Looking by segment makes the range the project is targeting clear. The 12-month average was ¥17,800 for resort hotels (N=10), ¥13,700 for city hotels (N=5), ¥10,100 for ryokan (N=25) and ¥7,500 for business hotels (N=47). City hotels hit ¥17,100 in September 2026, the highest in the latest 12 months; although the sample of five properties is thin and should be discounted, full-service rates have been trending up from summer into autumn.

Let us also check how occupancy builds. In a fixed cohort of Hakodate properties that list 30% or more of their total rooms on major booking sites (72 properties / 6,795 rooms in September 2026), occupancy (OTA listed-inventory basis, estimated) was 86.9% in August, 90.4% in September, and 87.0% for October based on 25 days of observations. The average September booking curve shows 70.9% at 45 days before the stay date, 77.0% at 30 days, 83.1% at 14 days, 86.0% at 7 days, and 90.4% the day before. Being 70% full 45 days out indicates that Hakodate is a market driven mainly by well-planned leisure demand. Note that these figures are estimates based on the sell-through of inventory sold on OTAs and differ from each property’s actual overall occupancy.

Location Analysis — Otemachi Reference Point Is Quasi-Industrial with 200% FAR; Hakodate Station Land Prices +8.2%

Because the lot number has not been announced, this section uses the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan’s town-block reference point (41.7693°N, 140.7237°E) as the Otemachi reference point. According to the MLIT Real Estate Information Library, the reference point lies in a quasi-industrial zone (floor area ratio 200%, building coverage ratio 60%), with a commercial zone (400% / 80%) and a neighborhood commercial zone (300% / 80%) adjacent within the same tile. Hotels are permitted in quasi-industrial zones. For an 11-storey, ~200-room building, assuming 40–50 m² of gross floor area per room (including common areas), the gross floor area would be 8,000–10,000 m², which at a 200% FAR would require a site of 4,000–5,000 m². This is a consistency check based on assumptions; actual site conditions await announcement.

In terms of transport, average daily passengers at JR Hakodate Station fell from 5,522 in 2019 to 3,124 in 2020, and recovered to 4,386 in 2023, or 79% of the 2019 level. The Jujigai streetcar stop (Main Line) had 1,666 passengers in 2023 and serves as a node linking the Mount Hakodate Ropeway with Motomachi and the Bay Area. As for the Hokkaido Shinkansen extension to Sapporo, a national expert panel indicated in March 2025 an outlook of “around the end of FY2038,” eight years later than the original end of FY2030. For the time being, plans should assume that rail access to Hakodate will continue to require a transfer to conventional lines at Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto Station.

Land prices near the station and on the Otemachi side differ by more than a factor of two. Wakamatsucho in front of Hakodate Station accelerated to ¥145,000/m² in 2025 (+8.2% YoY), while the standard site in Suehirocho near Otemachi was ¥64,000/m² (+4.9%) and Matsukazecho was flat at ¥66,000/m². The rise in front of the station is covered in Hakodate Station Land +10.3%, Goryokaku Flat: 226 Hotels, 11,449 Rooms, so we keep the explanation to a minimum here. Otemachi offers sea views at less than half the land price of the station area, so a plan combining roughly 200 rooms with a bathing facility is easier to make work here than in front of the station in terms of land cost.

Disaster Assumptions — Reference Point in a 5 m to Under 10 m Tsunami Inundation Zone, an Issue for Design and Operating Plans

The Otemachi reference point, close to the sea, falls within a zone with an inundation depth of 5 m to under 10 m in the tsunami inundation assumption published by Hokkaido in 2023. Since the lot number has not been disclosed, we do not state the inundation depth of the site itself, but given the low-lying nature of the Bay Area, it is a condition that should be assumed in design and operating plans. Specifically, placing functions where visitors gather — such as the bathing facility and restaurant — on upper floors with views is consistent both with the published policy of “making the most of the views” and with vertical evacuation in a disaster. Decisions such as whether to place the electrical room, emergency generators and water tanks on upper floors or apply flood protection, and whether to open the building to the community as a tsunami evacuation building, will feed into construction cost and therefore also affect the required ADR in the next section. In our Kushiro analysis (Kushiro: 99.6% of 2,752 Hotel Rooms in Tsunami Zone, BCP ¥0.48–1.11M), the additional flood-protection cost for new construction was set at ¥480,000–1,110,000 per room.

Surrounding Catchment — Resident Population of 14,412 within 1.5 km, −33.8% by 2040 vs 2020; a Location Dependent on Visitor Demand

According to MLIT’s National Land Numerical Information 250 m mesh future population estimates, the resident population within a 1.5 km radius of the reference point was 14,412 in 2025 and is projected to be 10,485 in 2040 (−33.8% from 15,838 in 2020, −27.2% from 2025), with 44.7% aged 65 or over. The working population within a 1 km radius, based on the Economic Census (2021), consists of 1,178 establishments and 10,210 employees, of which office-type jobs account for only 20.5%. In other words, lodging demand in Otemachi depends not on local residential or business demand, but on tourists and business travelers arriving via Hakodate Station, the airport and the port. This character is consistent with the well-planned booking behavior seen in the previous section, where rooms are 70% full 45 days out. The map shows resident population (census-based), not daytime or transit population.

Competitive Landscape — Room Stock within 1 km Grew from 3,375 Rooms in 2017 to 5,059 in 2026, with a Step Up in 2019

Let us take stock of supply. Within a 1 km radius of the reference point (10+ rooms, excluding leisure hotels), 54 properties with 6,381 rooms are listed, of which 39 properties with 5,060 rooms are operating with selling prices confirmed in the latest 3 months. Tracking the annual trend for properties with a confirmed opening year (on a surviving-property basis, excluding closed properties), the room stock rose from 35 properties / 3,375 rooms in 2017 to 39 properties / 4,697 rooms in 2019, and has been at 41 properties / 5,059 rooms since 2025 (three properties / 208 rooms with unknown opening years are excluded). 2019 saw the successive openings of a 317-room city hotel, 277-room and 261-room limited-service hotels, and a 336-room limited-service hotel with a bathing facility, adding about 1,300 rooms in a single year. The addition of about 200 rooms represents +4.0% on the operating stock, roughly one-sixth of the 2019 step up.

By composition, of the 5,060 operating rooms, large properties with 201+ rooms account for 10 properties / 2,908 rooms (57%) and 101–200-room properties for 9 properties / 1,290 rooms; the planned ~200 rooms sits on the boundary between these two classes. By segment, business hotels make up 63% with 26 properties / 3,211 rooms, while city hotels have 5 properties / 1,093 rooms and resort hotels 4 properties / 642 rooms. By opening decade, properties opened in the 2000s or later account for 24 properties / 3,831 rooms, or 76% of operating rooms, so rooms from the station area to the Bay Area are relatively new. However, these opening years include rebranding dates: Premier Hotel -CABIN PRESIDENT- Hakodate (プレミアホテル -CABIN PRESIDENT- 函館; 199 rooms, rebranded in 2023 from the former Four Points by Sheraton Hakodate) and Hotel Enoe Hakodate (ホテルエノエ函館; 136 rooms, an existing hotel rebranded in 2024) are conversions of existing buildings. Excluding these two, properties from the 2000s onward come to 22 properties / 3,496 rooms (69%). Six large properties opened in the 1960s–70s, totaling 826 rooms, are still operating, and some — like Hakodate Kokusai Hotel (函館国際ホテル; opened 1971, 435 rooms) — continue to hold a position in the upper band after renovations and acquisition by an investment corporation.

REIT Holdings — Two Invincible Properties and One Hoshino Resorts REIT Property in Hakodate; Hakodate Kokusai Hotel Acquired in July 2024

When looking at Hakodate as investment real estate, properties held by listed hotel REITs serve as reference points. Extracting Hakodate City from our ownership master (as of October 19, 2026, N=300 properties, domestic only), Invincible Investment Corporation (インヴィンシブル投資法人, 8963) holds two properties — Hakodate Kokusai Hotel (435 rooms, acquired July 2024, acquisition price ¥16,830 million) and Hotel MyStays Hakodate Goryokaku (ホテルマイステイズ函館五稜郭; 208 rooms, acquired February 2015, ¥2,792 million) — and Hoshino Resorts REIT (星野リゾート・リート投資法人, 3287) holds Comfort Hotel Hakodate (コンフォートホテル函館; 139 rooms, acquired May 2015, ¥937 million). Hakodate Kokusai Hotel, about 70 m from the planned site’s reference point, is the nearest large full-service property; the property-level results disclosed by Invincible were occupancy of 91.3% (August 2026, REIT disclosure), ADR of ¥26,277 and RevPAR of ¥23,998. The acquisition price per room is about ¥38.7 million, which overlaps with the ¥35–45 million per-room development cost range used in the sensitivity analysis in the next section.

For reference, the August 2026 results for Invincible’s 101 domestic hotels, published on September 25, 2026, were occupancy of 87.3% (August 2026, −0.5 pt YoY), ADR of ¥17,887 (−3.2%) and RevPAR of ¥15,608 (−3.8%). Hakodate Kokusai Hotel’s occupancy of 91.3% (August 2026) and ADR of ¥26,277 exceed the portfolio as a whole. The fact that full-service hotels in Hakodate command relatively high rates even within this REIT’s portfolio is a positive factor when considering the project’s price band. ADRs in this article are estimates (median error of about 7% against REIT-disclosed results); REIT-disclosed settled ADRs are shown excluding consumption tax, and this article’s estimated settled ADR is likewise on a tax-excluded equivalent basis.

Positioning — Century Marina Is the Only 200-Room-Class Hotel Above ¥25,000; the Mid-Size ¥25,000–40,000 Band Is Open

The chart below plots the 33 operating properties (of 39) for which we compiled estimated settled ADR over the latest 12 months (October 2025 – September 2026) on a rooms × ADR plane (estimated settled ADR is also available for Villa Concordia Resort & Spa (ヴィラ・コンコルディア リゾート&スパ; 10 rooms, 12-month average ¥26,200) and OMO5 Hakodate by Hoshino Resorts (245 rooms, ¥8,600), which are not included in the chart). On the chart, only two properties are at ¥25,000 or above — HOTEL&SPA Century Marina Hakodate (317 rooms, ¥31,300) and La Vista Hakodate Bay ANNEX (ラビスタ函館ベイANNEX; 74 rooms, ¥40,300) (three including Villa Concordia, outside the chart). In the ¥12,000–25,000 band are eight properties including Tokyu Stay Hakodate Asaichi Akari no Yu (東急ステイ函館朝市 灯の湯; 175 rooms), La Vista Hakodate Bay (ラビスタ函館ベイ; 335 rooms), La’gent Stay Hakodate Ekimae (ラ・ジェント・ステイ函館駅前; 261 rooms), Hakodate Kokusai Hotel (435 rooms), JR Inn Hakodate (JRイン函館; 215 rooms) and Premier Hotel -CABIN PRESIDENT- Hakodate (199 rooms). The remaining 23 properties are below ¥12,000, clustered at 100–300 rooms and dominated by limited-service hotels.

To put it in perspective: WS① has only one property not because there is no demand, but because the 2019 supply wave was skewed toward limited-service hotels. Century Marina maintaining a 12-month average of ¥31,300 at a scale of 317 rooms, and Hakodate Kokusai Hotel recording 91.3% occupancy and an ADR of ¥26,277 in August 2026 based on REIT disclosure, indicate there is still room for demand in this band. Since the plan promotes a “view restaurant and bathing facility,” its competitors are not the 23 properties below ¥12,000, but these top two or three.

Required ADR Sensitivity — ¥27,400 at 80% Occupancy and ¥31,300 at 70% with a Development Cost of ¥40 Million per Room

Because the project owner, gross floor area and construction cost are undisclosed, we back-calculate the “room revenue required per 100 rooms” using external benchmarks only. The assumptions are: (1) development cost per room (building + FF&E, excluding land) at three levels of ¥35 million, ¥40 million and ¥45 million; (2) a target development yield (NOI ÷ development cost) of 6%; (3) an NOI margin of 30% of room revenue (a conservative value for a full-service hotel with a restaurant and bathing facility); and (4) 365 operating days per year. The development cost levels were set in light of the environment in which, according to MLIT’s Building Construction Starts statistics, the planned construction cost of lodging buildings nationwide rose 41% from ¥1.386 million/tsubo in 2022 to ¥1.955 million/tsubo in 2024, and of Hakodate Kokusai Hotel’s acquisition price of ¥38.7 million per room seen in the previous section.

In the mid case of ¥40 million per room, annual room revenue of ¥800 million per 100 rooms is required, implying a required ADR of ¥27,400 at 80% occupancy and ¥31,300 at 70%. Overlaying this on observed market values, Century Marina’s 12-month average of ¥31,300, Hakodate Kokusai Hotel’s August result of ¥26,277 (REIT disclosure) and La Vista Hakodate Bay ANNEX’s ¥40,300 are distributed right within this range, showing that the WS① price band is not a theoretical gap but a level existing top properties are actually achieving. On the other hand, the citywide median for Hakodate is ¥8,600 on a 12-month average, and the March trough of ¥6,400 is only 58% of August, with the upper band subject to the same seasonal wave. Securing an annual average of ¥27,000–31,000 presupposes a pricing design that, for example, reaches around ¥40,000 at the summer peak and holds in the ¥20,000s even in winter. How to handle this seasonal gap is detailed in Hokkaido Hotel Winter Renovation Closures Cut Lost Revenue to 30.5% (Obihiro 171 rooms, Yunokawa 293 rooms).

Reframing the three levels of the sensitivity table as three scenarios that combine development cost and occupancy in the same direction makes the range of required ADR clearer: from ¥24,000 in the optimistic case (¥35 million, 80% occupancy) to ¥35,200 in the pessimistic case (¥45 million, 70%), with the mid case (¥40 million, 75%) at ¥29,200. In addition, the table below fixes development cost at ¥40 million per room and shows how the development yield (NOI ÷ development cost) moves along two axes, estimated settled ADR and occupancy. It ranges from 3.3% at ADR ¥20,000 and 60% occupancy to 7.9% at ADR ¥36,000 and 80% occupancy. The combinations that reach the 6% target or higher are 80% occupancy at ADR ¥28,000, 70% or higher at ¥32,000, and 65% or higher at ¥36,000.

Rising construction costs also act to deter new entry. A supply wave of 1,300 rooms like in 2019 is unlikely to be repeated at current construction costs, leaving limited room for follow-on supply to enter WS① after summer 2027. Supply restraint means an environment in which both existing top properties and the new project can more easily hold prices, and the fact that the required ADR stays within observed upper-market values even in the “70% occupancy” case of the sensitivity table is an upside factor supporting the project’s feasibility.

Investment Takeaways — Ample Absorption Capacity; the Issues Are Seasonality and Design Responses to the Tsunami Assumption

To summarize, the supply impact of about 200 rooms is +4.0% of the operating stock, within the range of demand growth that recorded 5.04 million guest-nights (+6.7%) in FY2025. In terms of price band, WS① (mid-to-large × ¥25,000–40,000) has only one peer, and on a REIT-disclosure basis the nearby Hakodate Kokusai Hotel achieved 91.3% occupancy and an ADR of ¥26,277 in August 2026. On the location side, while Otemachi land prices are less than half of those in front of the station, the site’s location within a 5 m to under 10 m tsunami inundation zone, and the seasonal gap in which winter rates fall to about 60% of summer, are premises for both design and revenue planning.

There are three implications for operators. First, since the plan targets WS①, the benchmark is not the citywide median but the monthly rates of the top three properties, and products that can test prices of around ¥40,000 in the first summer after opening (upper-floor view rooms, plans combining the bathing facility with dinner) should be prepared from the start. Second, in a market where 70% of rooms are booked 45 days out, a booking-curve design that sets early-booking prices higher and does not rely on last-minute discounting is effective. Third, the tsunami-zone condition, if combined with a design policy that concentrates functions on upper floors, allows the hotel to promote view value and safety at the same time. The published concept of “a restaurant and bathing facility that make the most of the views” reads as a configuration that takes into account both the constraints and the opportunities of this location.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Have the official room count and opening date of The Royal Park Hotel Hakodate been decided?
A. As of October 2026, what has been announced is “about 200 rooms” and “opening planned for summer 2027.” The lot number, gross floor area, project owner, official room count and opening date have not been disclosed, so this article does not estimate them either.

Q. How much will the addition of about 200 rooms affect supply and demand in Hakodate?
A. It is +4.0% on the 5,060 operating rooms within a 1 km radius of the Otemachi reference point. FY2025 overnight guest-nights rose 6.7% YoY to 5.043 million, so the addition is a scale that fits within demand growth.

Q. Is the ADR in this article the hotels’ actual revenue per room?
A. No. It is an estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent) derived by applying segment-specific correction factors to the lowest-plan price level published on major booking sites; checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs, the median error is about 7%. Only Hakodate Kokusai Hotel’s occupancy and ADR are quoted directly from Invincible Investment Corporation’s disclosures.

Related Articles