Eighty days have passed since the 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake (Reiwa 8 Kumamoto Earthquake, July 28, 2026). The Kurokawa Onsen Ryokan Association has announced that “no major damage has been confirmed in the hot-spring town, and business has been operating as usual since July 29” (association website, posted August 11, 2026; checked October 16). The question has therefore already shifted from “can we stay there?” to “how far have demand and rates recovered?” In this article we use MetroEngines Research listing data to track the number of listed properties and the estimated settled ADR in Kumamoto Prefecture month by month from April to December 2026, and compare the shape of the recovery across five areas: Minamioguni Town (which includes Kurokawa Onsen), Aso City, Minamiaso Village, Oguni Town and Chuo Ward of Kumamoto City. We then lay out three scenarios for January 2027 — after the Kyushu Fukko Ouenwari travel subsidy ends with stays checking in on December 25 — drawing on the precedent of what happened after the 2016 Kyushu Fukkowari subsidy ended and on the trajectory of Wakura Onsen (Nanao City) after the Noto Peninsula Earthquake.

Kumamoto Prefecture as a Whole — Listings Never Fell Below Pre-Quake Levels; Rates Went from −10.0% in July to +9.1% in September

We start with the prefecture-wide picture. Listed properties in Kumamoto Prefecture numbered 695 in June 2026 before the quake, 705 in July when it struck, 709 in August and 721 in September — never declining across the disaster (MetroEngines Research, by stay month). Year over year that is a double-digit increase, +16.7% in July and +23.2% in September, but this growth extends a listing expansion that had already been under way from April (+4.2%) to June (+12.6%). The reasonable reading is that the quake neither pushed the property count up nor pulled it down. October (721), November (702) and December (668) appear to decline the further out they are, but that is because listings for future stay months are not yet complete, and these must be treated as interim figures as of the survey date.

Rates, on the other hand, were clearly affected by the quake. Estimated settled ADR was ¥9,200 in July, −10.0% YoY, and ¥10,800 in August, −5.0%, below the prior year for two consecutive months, before turning to +9.1% at ¥11,000 in September (N=401–404 properties, all finalized months). However, given that June was already at −6.0%, only the difference of roughly 4 points of July’s 10-point drop can be attributed to the quake; the accurate characterization is that prefecture-wide rates were already soft before the disaster. From October onward, estimates based on listing levels at the survey date come out high at ¥13,500–14,300, but because levels tend to shift upward at the boundary where finalized months give way to estimated months, this article does not compare rates from October onward with the prior year.

Kumamoto Prefecture: Monthly Estimated Settled ADR (2024–2026, overlaid with prior years)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (N=366–404 properties per month; October–December are estimates based on listing levels at the survey date)

Kumamoto Prefecture: Monthly Listed Properties (2024–2026)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (by stay month; October–December listings are still filling in and will increase)

Occupancy should be checked as well. Occupancy (OTA-listed-inventory basis, estimated) rose in the usual seasonal pattern toward the summer peak: 77.5% in June, 80.7% in July, 89.6% in August and 88.0% in September. In the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics (preliminary), Kumamoto Prefecture’s guest nights in July were 649,220, down only 1.9% YoY; even allowing for the fact that July contains only the last four days after the quake, there is no sign that stays for the month collapsed. That said, June was −5.8% and April −9.2%, so here too softness had persisted since before the quake. The prefecture-wide reality is a structure in which “July–August rate pressure was layered on top of a prefecture that was already running below the prior year before the quake.”

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kumamoto Prefecture, all segments; properties/rooms covered are based on listings on major booking sites. Estimates based on how inventory sold on OTAs is being absorbed; these differ from a property’s actual overall occupancy)

Breakdown by Area — Kurokawa Onsen (Minamioguni) Held Its Rates, Aso City Raised Them, Oguni Town Was Soft from June

Split the prefecture into five areas and the shape of the recovery looks completely different. Note that the “Kurokawa Onsen” figures in this article cover all of Minamioguni Town, which includes Kurokawa Onsen (63 listed properties), and therefore also include properties in Manganji, the Senomoto Plateau and elsewhere. Minamioguni’s listed properties did not move — 63 in June, 64 in July, 62 in August, 63 in September — and its estimated settled ADR was ¥25,900 in July (−1.6% YoY), ¥29,100 in August (+3.7%) and ¥28,600 in September (+8.7%): it passed through the quake month roughly flat year over year and then turned up in the autumn (N=46–47 properties). In Aso City, listings actually rose from 60 to 63, and ADR kept growing at around double digits for three straight months: +15.5% in July, +8.6% in August and +11.8% in September (N=24–25).

In Minamiaso Village, listings rose from 69 to 75, while ADR came in slightly below the prior year at −3.5% in August and −4.0% in September. However, the estimate covers only a thin 15–18 properties, and the village has many small minshuku- and pension-type properties, so a difference of a few points should not be read definitively. Oguni Town (which includes Tsuetate Onsen and others) was already well below the prior year at −24.8% in June, and the gap has been narrowing: −19.7% in July, −17.4% in August and −5.7% in September. Because this area was below the prior year before the quake, the July–August figures cannot be separated from the quake’s impact. Chuo Ward of Kumamoto City (84–94 listed properties) saw only slight downward pressure, at −4.6% in July and −0.8% in August, followed by a large +21.1% rise in September. The evacuee accommodation and recovery-related business demand we identified in our previous analysis of the daily recovery curve over the 46 days after the quake appears to have shown up in rates as well in Chuo Ward, where business hotels are concentrated.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR is the area median, tax-excluded equivalent; YoY is versus the same month of the prior year; finalized months only)

YoY Change in Estimated Settled ADR by Area (June–September 2026, finalized months)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (bars = each area; line = Kumamoto Prefecture total)

We confirmed on-the-ground operating status from primary sources. The Kurokawa Onsen Ryokan Association states that it has been operating normally since July 29, with two member inns closed for construction work (to reopen once the work is finished) (posted August 11, 2026; checked October 16). The association also announced an initiative to donate 5% of room charges booked via its official website for stays reserved from August 1 to September 30 to the affected areas, and another to open member inns’ open-air baths free of charge to residents of water-outage areas in the south of the prefecture. The Aso City Tourism Association posted on July 31 that “no major damage has been confirmed to tourist facilities, accommodation or roads in the city, and they are operating as usual,” and individual ryokan also posted notices on July 29 that “no damage from the earthquake has been confirmed and we are operating as usual.” Meanwhile, Mt. Aso’s volcanic alert level was raised to 3 (entry restrictions) on August 14, and access around the crater was restricted for about two weeks until it returned to level 2 on September 1 (Aso area tourism collaboration press release, September 3, 2026). Accommodation cancellations published by Kumamoto Prefecture totalled about 190,000 guest nights and about ¥2.7 billion as of August 21 (provisional), of which the Aso area accounted for 60,206 guest nights and about ¥981 million. Operating status and access immediately after the quake are covered in Kurokawa Onsen After the 2026 Kumamoto Quake (as of August 15, 2026).

The Recovery “Pattern” — Wakura Onsen (Nanao City) Regained Properties First, Then Rates; Kumamoto Has Skipped the First Stage

Recovery in a lodging market after a disaster runs on two clocks: the stage in which “bookable properties come back” and the stage in which “rates come back.” Wakura Onsen, where many ryokan closed for extended periods after the January 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, is a case where that sequence is clearly visible. Listed properties in Nanao City, which includes Wakura Onsen, ran at 59–68 in 2023, but fell to 44 in April 2024, 34 in August and 31–32 from September onward — less than half the level of the same months in 2023. The reason no decline appears in January–March is that listings for January–March stay months had already been published before the quake; note that listing-based property counts always move with a lag of several months. Since then the count has recovered to 35 in April 2025 and 45 in July 2026, back to just over 70% of the pre-quake level over two and a half years.

Rates have been slower still to return. Nanao City’s estimated settled ADR was ¥17,200 in August 2023, against ¥8,700 in August 2024, ¥9,800 in August 2025 and ¥10,100 in August 2026 — only 59% of the same pre-quake month (August 2024 to March 2025 covers only a thin 7–10 properties and is for reference only). September 2026 recovered to ¥10,900 (73% of the same month in 2023), and the figures reflect a sequence in which ryokan that reopened prioritized occupancy right after reopening and only raised rates later. A Hokuriku Local Finance Bureau document (January 29, 2026) states that of the 20 members of the Wakura Onsen Tourism Association, 9 had reopened, with room capacity at about 30% of the pre-quake level and guest numbers below 40% of pre-quake levels (based on an interview with the Wakura Onsen Ryokan Cooperative as of January 21, 2026). An announcement by the Wakura Onsen Tourism Association, the Wakura Onsen Ryokan Cooperative and JR West (September 16, 2026) says 11 of the cooperative’s 19 member inns have resumed accepting guests.

Nanao City (incl. Wakura Onsen): Monthly Listed Properties (2023–2026)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (by stay month; October–December 2026 listings still filling in)

Nanao City (incl. Wakura Onsen): Monthly Estimated Settled ADR (2023–2026, finalized months only)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (N=7–35 properties per month; August 2024 to March 2025 is N=7–10 and for reference only)

Applying this pattern to Kumamoto shows that the first stage never occurred at all. Both Kurokawa Onsen and Aso City suffered only limited building damage, and listed property counts have stayed at roughly pre-quake levels (Minamioguni dipped just one property below its pre-quake level, to 62, in August). Recovery in Kumamoto therefore means not the restoration of supply but the recovery of demand and rates themselves. Minamioguni passing through the quake month at −1.6% YoY and returning to +8.7% in September is a speed equivalent, on Wakura Onsen’s clock, to the phase “two and a half years after reopening.” Put the other way, because supply survived intact, the phase of “filling occupancy with discount subsidies” tends to drag on in the rate recovery, and underlying demand is tested the moment the discounts end. That brings us to the next issue: the end of the Ouenwari subsidy.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

The Program — Kyushu Fukko Ouenwari Runs Through Stays on December 25; in the 2016 Precedent, the Month After It Ended Still Held at +4.6% YoY

According to the Japan Tourism Agency’s program documents, the Kyushu Fukko Ouenwari subsidizes 50% of travel and accommodation charges (60% in Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures), capped per person at ¥20,000 per night for accommodation only or travel packages of one night, ¥30,000 for travel packages of two nights or more and ¥35,000 for multi-destination tours, with discounts applying to stays from Thursday, October 1, 2026. Reservations for the Kumamoto Prefecture allocation opened at 10:00 on Tuesday, September 15, covering check-ins from October 1 through Friday, December 25 (check-out December 26), and the program ends once the budget cap is reached. In practice, acceptance was repeatedly suspended and resumed right after the start: some booking sites stopped accepting Kumamoto Prefecture bookings on September 16 after hitting the budget cap, while another booking site newly began accepting Kumamoto bookings at 12:00 on October 15, so the situation differs by sales channel. Ahead of this, the seven municipalities of the Aso region launched their own “Aso Fukkowari” subsidy in September (Aso area tourism collaboration, September 3, 2026).

The precedent, the 2016 Kyushu Fukkowari, went on sale on July 1 that year. In Phase 1 (travel in July–September), Kumamoto and Oita were discounted by 70%; Phase 2 (travel in October–December) went on sale on September 9 with a reduced discount rate, and the program ended within the year. Tracing Kumamoto Prefecture’s guest nights in the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics, 2016 fell −5.8% in April and −10.6% in May, then returned to roughly the prior-year level at −0.2% YoY for July–December while the discounts ran, with December alone at +9.9%. In January 2017, the month after the discounts ended, guest nights rose +4.6%, then +6.9% in February and +11.2% in March — slowing, but never falling below the prior year — for +7.7% over January–March. For 2017 as a whole they reached 7,899,000 guest nights, +8.6% (2016: 7,275,000), followed by 8,053,000 in 2018, +2.0%. The Japan Tourism Agency announced a follow-up “Kumamoto Support Program” on January 24, 2017, and not leaving a gap in support during the month after the program ended is also part of the precedent. A side-by-side review of the 2016 program design and post-program trajectory against the 2026 program is covered in detail in After Kyushu’s 2016 Subsidy Ended: +8.7% in 2017.

Kumamoto Prefecture: YoY Change in Guest Nights (2016, 2017 and 2026 preliminary)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (time-series tables; 2026 figures are preliminary). The stratification basis changed from January 2026, and YoY figures include that effect

There are, however, two differences in the underlying conditions between 2016 and 2026. First, the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake struck in April, leaving a three-month gap before the discounts started in July, so the program “lifted depressed demand with discounts.” In 2026, by contrast, discounts began about two months after the quake, entering the discount period while the trough was still shallow. Second, in the December 2016 → January 2017 transition, the comparison base of January 2016 was a normal pre-quake month, so January 2017’s +4.6% meant “growth versus normal times.” The comparison base for January 2027, January 2026 (Kumamoto Prefecture ADR ¥11,800; guest nights 557,420, −2.2%), is also a normal month, so on this point the conditions match the precedent.

Three Scenarios for January 2027 — The 2017 Pattern, the Rebound Dip and the Follow-Up Program

Based on the above, we set out three scenarios for January 2027, after the Ouenwari ends, using Kumamoto Prefecture’s guest nights (YoY) and the estimated settled ADR of Minamioguni Town (including Kurokawa Onsen) as the axes. All figures are actual results from the precedent, presented as reference values; they are not forecasts.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey and MetroEngines Research (reference values are precedent actuals, not forecasts)

There are three indicators for telling early which scenario is unfolding. First, whether Minamioguni’s listed properties for January 2027 hold at the prior-year level (57). With supply intact, a scenario in which this breaks down is hard to imagine, but it still needs checking. Second, how far the estimated settled ADR for December stays narrows from −8.2% at the survey date. December is the final month of the discount; if it returns to the prior-year level while listings build up during November, that would show demand used to post-discount prices is also following undiscounted prices. Third, how far Kumamoto Prefecture’s October guest nights (Japan Tourism Agency preliminary figures, expected to be published at the end of December) grew year over year in the first month of the Ouenwari. October 2016 was −4.5% even with discounts, so if October 2026 is clearly positive, January 2027 is more likely to lean toward A or C.

Implications for Operators and Investors — Starting from “the Property Count Has Recovered,” How to Design the Rate Recovery

For operators, the issue is how the discount ends. When returning to pre-discount prices from late December into January for guests used to post-discount net costs, a staged design is effective: separate the approach for off-season weekdays and weekends, hold weekend rates at the prior-year level, and strengthen value propositions such as multi-night stays and half-board plans on weekdays. The “donate 5% of official-website bookings” initiative the Kurokawa Onsen Ryokan Association ran in August–September functions as a mechanism to get guests to choose direct booking for a reason other than discounts; preparing a similar incentive for after the discount ends could be one way to reduce the size of the January dip. In areas like Aso City that passed through the quake month at +15.5%, not cutting rates too far during the discount period helps protect the price reference point from January onward.

For investors, there is no reason — at least on the supply side — to discount Kumamoto deals as “disaster-recovery plays.” With listed properties never falling below pre-quake levels and occupancy (OTA-listed-inventory basis, estimated) moving in its normal pattern at 89.6% in August and 88.0% in September, the focus of valuation narrows to the speed of rate recovery. As the Wakura Onsen case shows, a lag of several years can arise between recovery in property count and recovery in rates, but because Kumamoto lacks the former step, where January–March 2027 rates land year over year will be the first quarter that can be judged by the same criteria as a normal market deal. For areas with few properties in the estimate, such as Minamiaso Village and Oguni Town (15–21), we recommend not drawing conclusions from monthly differences of a few points but reading the data quarterly.

Summary

Listed properties in Kumamoto Prefecture never declined, going from 695 before the quake to 721 in September, and estimated settled ADR turned to +9.1% in September after −10.0% in July and −5.0% in August. Minamioguni Town, which includes Kurokawa Onsen, kept 63 listed properties and posted September ADR of +8.7%, with downward pressure in the quake month limited to −1.6%. Against the “property count first, then rates” sequence of Wakura Onsen (Nanao City) — which climbed from a trough of 46% of its 2023 property count to 71% over two and a half years, with rates back to 73% — Kumamoto has skipped the first step and is in the rate-recovery phase. The Kyushu Fukko Ouenwari ends with stays on December 25, but in the 2016 precedent, January 2017, the month after the program ended, still held at +4.6%, with the full year up +8.6%. For January 2027, the call on whether things lean toward the 2017 pattern, the rebound dip or the follow-up program will depend on how far December-stay ADR narrows from −8.2% at the survey date and on growth in October guest nights.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Is Kurokawa Onsen closed because of the earthquake?
A. According to the Kurokawa Onsen Ryokan Association, no major damage has been confirmed in the hot-spring town, and it has been operating as usual since July 29, 2026 (association website, posted August 11, 2026; checked October 16). At the time of that announcement, two member inns were closed for construction work and are expected to reopen once the work is finished. Please check the “Inns” and “Availability” pages on the association’s official website for the latest operating status.

Q. Until when can the Kyushu Fukko Ouenwari be used?
A. For the Kumamoto Prefecture allocation, eligible stays run from October 1, 2026 through check-in on December 25 (check-out December 26), and the program ends once the budget cap is reached. The acceptance status differs by sales channel: some booking sites stopped accepting bookings on September 16 after hitting the budget cap, while another booking site newly began accepting Kumamoto Prefecture bookings at 12:00 on October 15. For the latest status by prefecture, see our Kyushu Recovery Subsidy guide for lodging operators.

Q. Will hotel rates fall in January 2027?
A. In January 2017, the month after the 2016 Kyushu Fukkowari ended, Kumamoto Prefecture’s guest nights were up +4.6% YoY and did not fall below the prior year. However, in 2026 the time between the quake and the start of discounts was short, so a reaction to pulled-forward demand is possible. This article presents three scenarios — the 2017 pattern, the rebound dip and the follow-up program — and how December-stay ADR narrows and October guest nights will be the deciding factors.

Q. Have rates at inns in Kurokawa Onsen (Minamioguni Town) gone up since the earthquake?
A. The estimated settled ADR (area median, tax-excluded equivalent) for Minamioguni Town, which includes Kurokawa Onsen, was ¥25,900 in July 2026 (−1.6% YoY), ¥29,100 in August (+3.7%) and ¥28,600 in September (+8.7%) (N=46–47 properties). It passed through the quake month roughly flat year over year and moved above the prior year in the autumn. Figures from October onward are estimates based on listing levels at the survey date, so they are not compared with the prior year.

Q. How does Kumamoto’s recovery differ from Wakura Onsen’s?
A. In Nanao City, which includes Wakura Onsen, listed properties fell to 46% of the same month in 2023 after the Noto Peninsula Earthquake and took two and a half years to recover to 71%, with rates lagging behind and recovering to 73%. In Kumamoto, listed properties in both Minamioguni Town and Aso City have stayed at roughly pre-quake levels, so rate recovery has become the central issue without passing through a “property count recovers” stage.

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