Comparing finalized months year over year, the estimated settled ADR (excl.-tax equivalent) of city hotels and business hotels in Kanagawa Prefecture regained momentum in September 2026: city hotels came in at ¥14,900 (N=42), up 15.8% from ¥12,900 (N=40) a year earlier, and business hotels at ¥9,200 (N=209), up 6.5% from ¥8,700 (N=210). The preceding August, at −3.3% for city hotels and −4.8% for business hotels, had been the first month of 2026 in which both categories fell below the prior year at the same time, so the key question is whether this rebound is a one-month bounce or the underlying trend for the second half of the year. This article lays the finalized January–October figures over the prior year, unpacks what was behind the August decline and what drove the September–October recovery, and then uses November–December booking pace (from 45 days before arrival to the latest observation) and day-of-week estimated OCC to offer yardsticks for year-end pricing decisions.

Coverage: Kanagawa city hotels N=42 properties and business hotels N=209 properties (based on finalized September 2026 figures; 40–42 / 207–213 properties depending on the month). The price metric in this article is the estimated settled ADR (settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, excl.-tax equivalent), and occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are given at the end of the article. Data as of: November 9, 2026.

Estimated Settled ADR Year over Year — City Hotels +13.8% on a January–October Average, Business Hotels +3.2%

First, lay the finalized months (January–October) over the prior year to get the big picture. The estimated settled ADR of city hotels averaged ¥15,500 (simple average) over January–October 2026 versus ¥13,600 in the same period of 2025, up 13.8%, staying a little over 10% above the prior year throughout. By month, January led at +36.3% (¥15,700 vs ¥11,500), followed by April at +19.7% (¥17,100 vs ¥14,300) and June at +20.9% (¥15,800 vs ¥13,100), with double-digit growth continuing from spring into early summer. July, however, slowed to +3.9%, and August finally fell below the prior year at −3.3%.

Business hotels, by contrast, averaged ¥9,300 over the same period against ¥9,100 a year earlier, up 3.2% — roughly a quarter of the city-hotel growth. They ran at +1.9% to +8.4% in January–May, but slipped below the prior year for three consecutive summer months: −1.7% in June, −0.9% in July and −4.8% in August. The widening gap between city and business hotel rate growth suggests that Kanagawa’s hotel market is structured so that “rates move from the upper price tier first” (the in-prefecture structure, in which Hakone, Minato Mirai, Shonan and the business districts each draw rates from different sources, is laid out in Kanagawa Hotel Market 2026: Four Tiers and a ¥15,400 Autumn ADR Gap).

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kanagawa city hotels, estimated settled ADR, excl.-tax equivalent. Solid line = finalized; dotted line = estimate based on current sales)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kanagawa business hotels, estimated settled ADR, excl.-tax equivalent. Solid line = finalized; dotted line = estimate based on current sales)

The table below lists the finalized figures and YoY change by month. City hotels beat the prior year in 9 of 10 months and business hotels in 7, and August was the only month in which both categories fell below the prior year at the same time.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR, excl.-tax equivalent, finalized vs. finalized. N = number of properties in the estimation sample)

The August Decline and September Rebound — Base Effects Created by Last Year’s Peaks and Troughs

It would be premature to read August’s YoY decline as a demand slowdown. In 2025, August was the highest month of January–October for city hotels (¥15,200), and business hotels’ ¥9,700 was also the peak for that period. In other words, August 2026 was compared against “last year’s peak,” while the 2026 levels themselves (city ¥14,700, business ¥9,300) were not much different from July’s ¥15,000 and ¥9,100. Rather than summer rates breaking down, it is closer to the reality to say that only the YoY figure looked weak because August 2025 stood out.

The September rebound follows the same pattern in reverse. September 2025’s ¥12,900 for city hotels was the lowest since February 2025 (¥12,300), and business hotels’ ¥8,700 was the lowest since January (¥8,300), even below February (¥8,800). Measured against last year’s trough, September’s +15.8% and +6.5% are not as strong a tailwind as they look. So how much of it is trend? October offers the clue: October 2025 (city ¥14,800, business ¥9,000) was an average month, neither a peak nor a trough, yet October 2026 came in at ¥15,600 for city hotels (+5.4%) and ¥9,700 for business hotels (+7.3%) — for business hotels, a faster growth rate than September. For a breakdown of the September rebound into the five-day holiday calendar and the prior-year base, see also Kanagawa Sept 2026 Settled ADR: City +15.8%, Business +6.5% Rebound.

Combining the three months of August–October to smooth out single-month base effects, city hotels averaged ¥15,100 in 2026 versus ¥14,300 in 2025 (+5.5%), and business hotels ¥9,400 versus ¥9,100 (+2.7%). Putting this together, it is reasonable to read Kanagawa’s H2 rate trend as roughly “city +5%, business +3%.” A middle-ground picture emerges: building year-end prices off September’s double-digit growth would be too aggressive, but there is also no need to turn bearish because of August’s YoY decline.

It is also worth checking the inventory absorption behind these rates. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for city hotels averaged 85.5% in September 2026 (28 properties, 5,477 rooms) and 90.3% in October (27 properties, 5,162 rooms); for business hotels, 87.0% in September (116 properties, 15,836 rooms) and 92.7% in October (122 properties, 16,510 rooms) — all in the 90% range in October. Several near-sellout days were observed in October: for city hotels, Saturday October 10 at 98.1% (sold-out property share 54.8%) and October 24 at 98.5%; for business hotels, Thursday October 15 at 99.0% (sold-out property share 78.0%) and October 29 at 98.8%. Because the YoY rate gains came with high inventory absorption, October’s +5.4% and +7.3% appear to have been supported by demand, not just by pricing.

Comparison with the Southern Kanto Prefectures — The August Decline Was Shared, but the Recovery from September Diverged for City Hotels

To check whether Kanagawa’s movement is common across Southern Kanto, we lined up the YoY change in estimated settled ADR for the same two categories in Tokyo, Chiba and Saitama (Table 2). In August, both city and business hotels fell below the prior year in all four prefectures, confirming that August’s decline was not a demand slowdown specific to Kanagawa.

From September onward, however, the recovery split by segment. For city hotels, the combined August–October figure was only −9.9% in Tokyo, +0.3% in Chiba and −11.9% in Saitama (reference value, N=12), while Kanagawa posted +5.5% — the only one of the four to hold in the +5% range. Business hotels were level: Kanagawa +2.7%, Tokyo +3.2%, Chiba +3.2% and Saitama +0.1%, putting Kanagawa’s business hotels at the average Southern Kanto recovery pace. When building year-end prices, keep in mind the different premises: for city hotels, “the in-prefecture trend is stronger than the surrounding area”; for business hotels, “the trend is the same as the surrounding area.”

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated settled ADR, excl.-tax equivalent, finalized vs. finalized. Aug–Oct combined = YoY of the 3-month simple averages. N = number of properties in the estimation sample. Saitama city hotels are a reference value due to the small sample, N=12)

Estimated OCC by Day of Week — Business Hotels’ Wednesdays and Thursdays Beat Saturday in October

As a premise for pricing decisions, let’s also look at how each day of the week fills. Averaging daily estimated OCC by day of week for September and October, city hotels were highest on Saturday in both months (91.9% in September, 95.6% in October), showing a clear weekend-driven demand structure. Business hotels peaked on Saturday in September (90.2%), but in October Wednesday (96.8%) and Thursday (97.6%) exceeded Saturday (94.8%), making it a month in which mid-week business-travel and corporate demand outstripped weekend leisure. Both categories also share low Mondays (city 83.8%, business 85.4%) and Sundays (89.6% and 87.3%).

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated OCC = based on OTA-listed inventory; the last observation before each stay date, simple-averaged by day of week)

November–December Booking Pace — Holiday-Weekend Kickoff Above 90% at 45 Days Out; Headroom from the Second Week of December

So how far has year-end demand built up? We lined up booking curves from 45 days before arrival to the latest observation for Saturdays and weekdays in November and December. The fastest pace was for Saturday, November 21, the first day of a three-day weekend: city hotels were already at 94.0% at 45 days out and reached 98.9% at the latest observation (13 days out) with a sold-out property share of 64.3%; business hotels went from 93.4% at 45 days out to 99.0% with a sold-out share of 76.9%. In both categories, inventory was nearly exhausted as early as 45 days out. By contrast, for November 14, a regular Saturday, city hotels went 81.6% at 45 days → 89.0% at 30 days → 95.2% at the latest (6 days out), and business hotels 64.5% → 75.1% → 92.1%, adding +13.6pt (city) and +27.6pt (business) from 45 days out to the latest observation.

Weekday movement is especially large for business hotels. For Wednesday, November 18, business hotels rose from 53.7% at 45 days out to 86.7% at the latest observation (9 days out), +33.0pt, and city hotels from 69.3% to 86.6%, +17.3pt — a high share filled in the final month and a half. Business hotel weekdays are structured to reach close to 90% in the end even when pace at 45 days out is in the 50% range, so there is little reason to give up rate because of low early pace.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated OCC of Kanagawa business hotels, 117 properties / 16,131 rooms. Observed from 45 days before the stay date to the latest observation)

Turning to December, Saturday December 5 stood at 85.8% for city hotels and 79.7% for business hotels (both at 26 days out). Compared with November 14 at the same 26-day lead time (city 89.8%, business 78.1%), business hotels are ahead and city hotels are only 4 points behind. On the other hand, Saturday December 12 was at 78.3% (city) and 65.2% (business) at 34 days out, Saturday December 19 at 82.7% and 69.5% at 41 days out, and Wednesday December 9 at 69.6% and 57.6% at 31 days out — leaving plenty of room to build from the second week of December onward. That said, as the November 14 curve shows, the standard shape in Kanagawa is for Saturdays to add several to more than ten points between 30 days out and the latest observation, so it is too early to judge mid-December as weak on current figures alone.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (estimated OCC = based on OTA-listed inventory. City 27–28 properties / approx. 5,400 rooms; business 116–117 properties / approx. 16,000 rooms. “—” = stay date not yet at 30 days out)

Note that, based on current sales, the estimated settled ADR stands at ¥17,700 (N=41) for city hotels and ¥12,500 (N=207) for business hotels in November, and ¥17,300 (N=40) and ¥11,800 (N=205) in December. These are provisional figures that may change with sales through month-end, so a simple comparison with last year’s finalized November and December figures should wait until the months close.

December Estimated Settled ADR Projections — Three Scenarios and a Two-Way Sensitivity of YoY × Estimated OCC

As a yardstick for setting year-end base rates, we applied three YoY rates actually observed in 2026 to the finalized December 2025 figures (city ¥14,800, N=40; business ¥9,100, N=207) (Table 5). The pessimistic case is the August pattern (city −3.3%, business −4.8%), the middle case is the August–October combined rate (+5.5%, +2.7%), and the optimistic case is the September pattern (+15.8%, +6.5%). Under the middle case, the expected December level is ¥15,600 for city hotels and ¥9,300 for business hotels. The current November–December estimates mentioned above are provisional and will move with sales through month-end, so they are not compared side by side with these projections based on finalized figures.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (finalized December 2025 estimated settled ADR × YoY rates observed in 2026. Excl.-tax equivalent. Projections, not forecasts)

To see whether to prioritize rate or occupancy, we built room revenue per available room (RevPAR projection = projected ADR × estimated OCC) on two axes: YoY (projected ADR) and estimated OCC (Tables 6 and 7). For December 2026, city hotels at +5% YoY and 85% estimated OCC yield ¥13,210, nearly the same as ¥13,321 at 0% YoY and 90% OCC; for business hotels the figures are ¥8,090 and ¥8,158, a difference of less than 1%. A +5% rate premium roughly offsets a drop of about 5 points in estimated OCC, so in a market that adds more than ten points in the final month and a half — like the regular Saturday of November 14 — there is little need to buy occupancy with early discounts.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kanagawa city hotels. Rows = YoY vs. the finalized December 2025 figure of ¥14,801; columns = assumed estimated OCC values; cells = RevPAR projection, excl.-tax equivalent)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Kanagawa business hotels. Rows = YoY vs. the finalized December 2025 figure of ¥9,064; columns = assumed estimated OCC values; cells = RevPAR projection, excl.-tax equivalent)

For Revenue Managers Running City and Business Hotels in Kanagawa — Implications and Action Plan

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (the action plan is an illustrative example based on the market data in this article and does not guarantee results)

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Kanagawa Year-End Pricing

First, the underlying rate trend is roughly “city +5%, business +3%.” September’s +15.8% and +6.5% were inflated by comparison with last year’s trough, and August’s −3.3% and −4.8% were depressed by comparison with last year’s peak. The August–October combined figures (city +5.5%, business +2.7%) and October alone (city +5.4%, business +7.3%) form a realistic baseline for building year-end prices.

Second, the days to earn rate differ by segment. In October, business hotels’ Wednesdays and Thursdays (96.8%, 97.6%) exceeded Saturday, while city hotels’ Saturday (95.6%) stood out. A day-of-week rate ladder tailored to your category is more rational than a flat weekend premium.

Third, set the decision point at 30 days out. Kanagawa demand builds +27–33pt for business hotels and +14–17pt for city hotels from 45 days out to the latest observation, so moving prices on 45-day pace is too early. Saturdays from the second week of December onward are currently in the 60–80% range even at the market level, leaving room to act after comparing against the market’s regular-Saturday trajectory at 30 days out.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. What was the estimated settled ADR of Kanagawa city hotels in September 2026?

A. ¥14,900 (N=42), up 15.8% from ¥12,900 (N=40) a year earlier. Business hotels were ¥9,200 (N=209), up 6.5% from ¥8,700 a year earlier. Both are comparisons of finalized, excl.-tax-equivalent figures.

Q. Was the August YoY decline a demand slowdown?

A. It is hard to read it that way. August 2025 was the highest month of January–October 2025 for both city and business hotels, and the comparison with that peak pushed YoY down. Combined over August–October, city hotels are +5.5% and business hotels +2.7%, and in August both categories also fell below the prior year in Tokyo, Chiba and Saitama.

Q. How does Kanagawa’s rate growth compare with Tokyo, Chiba and Saitama?

A. For city hotels, the combined August–October figure is +5.5% in Kanagawa versus −9.9% in Tokyo, +0.3% in Chiba and −11.9% in Saitama (reference value, N=12) — Kanagawa is the highest. For business hotels there is no major difference: Kanagawa +2.7%, Tokyo +3.2%, Chiba +3.2% and Saitama +0.1%.

Q. How far along is December booking pace?

A. Saturday December 5 is at 85.8% (city) and 79.7% (business) at 26 days out; Saturday December 12 at 78.3% and 65.2% at 34 days out; and Saturday December 19 at 82.7% and 69.5% at 41 days out (all estimated OCC based on OTA-listed inventory). Business hotels for December 12 are about 7 points below November 14 at the same 34-day lead time.

Q. How does the estimated settled ADR differ from listed prices?

A. Listed prices are the plan rates published on OTAs (2 guests per room, per room, tax included), while the estimated settled ADR is the settled price level estimated by multiplying the lowest-plan level by a segment-specific adjustment factor (excl.-tax equivalent). It is an estimate with a median error of about 7% when benchmarked against property-level results of listed hotel REITs, and differs from each property’s actual settled prices.

About the Data

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

■ Data sources

MetroEngines Research estimated settled ADR (city / business hotels in Kanagawa, Tokyo, Chiba and Saitama; monthly from January 2025 to December 2026; finalized months are based on actual sales, and November–December 2026 are estimates based on current sales), plus Kanagawa estimated OCC and booking curves (based on OTA-listed inventory; observed from 45 days before the stay date to the latest observation). Data as of November 9, 2026.

■ Projection assumptions

December projected ADR = finalized December 2025 estimated settled ADR (city ¥14,801, N=40; business ¥9,064, N=207) multiplied by the YoY rate. The three scenarios use 2026 actuals (pessimistic = August, middle = August–October combined, optimistic = September). RevPAR projection = projected ADR × estimated OCC, with estimated OCC set at assumed values of 75–95%. The August–October combined figure in the Southern Kanto comparison is the YoY of 3-month simple averages.

■ Limitations and caveats

The estimated settled ADR is an estimate, with a median error of about 7% when benchmarked against property-level results of listed hotel REITs. Estimated OCC is based on OTA-listed inventory and reads higher than actual room occupancy, so RevPAR projections should be read as a guide for relative comparison rather than absolute levels. Saitama city hotels are a reference value due to the small sample (N=12). The sample size (N) varies by month. Current November–December estimates are calculated differently from finalized figures and are not used for YoY.