According to the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses (June–July 2026)” released on September 30, 2026, minpaku (private homes registered under the Private Lodging Business Act) across Japan recorded 557,439 nights with guests, up to 129.3% of the same period a year earlier, or 15.4 days per registered home. Dividing those 15.4 days by the 61 days in the period gives about 25% — the level usually quoted as “minpaku occupancy.” However, its definition and denominator differ from a hotel’s room occupancy rate, so placing the two side by side without care leads to misreading. This article breaks this nights-to-days ratio down by prefecture — Hokkaido, Fukuoka, Tokyo and others — and overlays it with hotel and simple-lodging (kan’i shukusho) room occupancy for the same June–July period, the nationality mix of foreign guests, and the number of guests sharing a stay per night, to set out the key takeaways for hotel and ryokan operators and investors.

Minpaku Occupancy Is About 25% — 15.4 Days per Registered Home Divided by 61 Days

First, the national figures against the same period last year. In June–July 2026 there were 42,587 registered homes (as of July 31), up 23.8% from 34,411 a year earlier. Reports filed numbered 36,197, and the reporting rate rose 4.7pt to 85.0% from 80.3%. Nights with guests, guests and guest-nights all grew by 20–30%, so the overall market expanded substantially in one year.

Source: Japan Tourism Agency, “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses” (June–July 2025 / June–July 2026). Nights-to-days ratio and year-on-year change in registered homes calculated by the HotelBank Editorial Team

The point to note in the table is that the nights-to-days ratio has barely moved. While total nights with guests rose 29.3%, nights per home slipped slightly from 15.6 to 15.4 days, keeping the ratio in the 25% range. In other words, most of the growth came from more homes, not from each home filling up more. Going back two years to June–July 2024, there were 25,908 registered homes at 16.4 days per home (ratio 26.9%); even as the number of homes grew 1.6-fold, the per-home level stayed within a 25–27% band.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses,” June–July of each year (nights-to-days ratio = nights with guests per registered home ÷ 61 days)

Nights-to-Days Ratio by Prefecture — Hokkaido 35%, Fukuoka 30%, Tokyo 28%

By prefecture, Tokyo accounted for 286,731 nights with guests, or 51.4% of the national total, followed by Hokkaido (84,684), Fukuoka (23,492) and Okinawa (19,995). On nights per home, Hokkaido led with 21.1 days, followed by Fukuoka at 18.4 and Tokyo at 17.3. Dividing by 61 gives Hokkaido 34.6%, Fukuoka 30.2%, Tokyo 28.4% and Okinawa 26.4% — all above the national 25.2%.

Source: Japan Tourism Agency, “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses” (appendix tables for June–July 2025 and 2026). Nights-to-days ratio, year-on-year change and foreign share (share of guests without Japanese nationality) calculated by the HotelBank Editorial Team

Each prefecture grew in its own way. In Fukuoka, reports filed rose 51.8% and nights per home also climbed from 15.5 to 18.4 days, so total nights with guests grew 1.8-fold. Hokkaido also rose from 19.9 to 21.1 days per home. In Okinawa, reports filed grew only 3.3%, but nights per home jumped from 11.6 to 16.1 days. Tokyo grew its total through more homes, with nights per home roughly flat at 17.7 → 17.3 days.

So how did hotels and simple lodgings fare in these prefectures? In the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” for June and July 2026 (second preliminary figures), business hotel room occupancy in all four prefectures was high in July at 79–83%. The regions where the minpaku nights-to-days ratio exceeded the national level overlap with those where hotel rooms were also well filled. One reading is that minpaku absorbs demand as an alternative option when hotels run at high occupancy, but causality between the two cannot be established from these statistics.

Source: Compiled from the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses” (June–July 2026), the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (June and July 2026, second preliminary figures; room occupancy by prefecture and accommodation type), MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team. Estimated occupancy covers Tokyo 780–804 properties / 103,314–104,099 rooms, Hokkaido 664–665 properties / 52,439–52,729 rooms, Fukuoka 380–381 properties / 28,979–28,992 rooms, and Okinawa 702–710 properties / 35,277–35,632 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites, all categories, day-weighted average of June and July). ADR is the prefectural median of estimated settled ADR (N = Tokyo 1,136–1,137 properties, Hokkaido 949–952, Fukuoka 473, Okinawa 505–508)

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses” (June–July 2026) and “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (June and July 2026, second preliminary figures). Simple lodgings and business hotels are simple averages of June and July. Minpaku is the nights-to-days ratio, defined differently from room occupancy

The closest yardstick for comparison is simple lodgings. In Hokkaido and Okinawa, simple lodgings ran at 26–33% in June–July, roughly the same band as the minpaku nights-to-days ratio. In Tokyo and Fukuoka, by contrast, simple lodgings were around 50%, well above minpaku’s 28–30%. Urban simple lodgings include many guesthouses and capsule-type properties sold per person, which counts occupancy differently from minpaku rented as a whole unit — likely one reason for the gap. Note that our estimated occupancy (OTA listed-inventory basis) is based on how inventory sold through OTAs and similar channels is absorbed, and differs from a property’s actual overall occupancy. It runs higher than the Japan Tourism Agency’s room occupancy, so in the table it should be treated as a reference value for comparing levels within the same prefecture. The two measures differ because the Agency’s room occupancy uses all rooms available for sale as the denominator, while the inventory-based estimate looks only at rooms put on sale through booking channels.

On rates, estimated settled ADR in the same June–July period fell year-on-year in Tokyo by −3.9% and −4.8%, while Okinawa rose +15.8% and +7.1%. Hokkaido and Fukuoka were roughly flat. Hotel rates have not collapsed in prefectures where minpaku nights grew sharply; it is more natural to see the strength of demand in each region reflected in both hotel rates and minpaku.

Minpaku Foreign Share Is 57.5% — Foreign Guest-Nights at Hotels Fell 6.5% in July

Of the 582,162 minpaku guests, 247,473 (42.5%) were Japanese nationals and 334,689 (57.5%) were foreign. Year-on-year, Japanese guests were at 127.0% and foreign guests at 121.4%, both up more than 20%. Meanwhile, foreign guest-nights in the Overnight Travel Statistics Survey fell below the prior year: 12.22 million in June 2026 (−14.0% YoY) and 13.31 million in July (−6.5%, second preliminary). So while total foreign stays declined at hotels and ryokan, foreign guests at minpaku increased.

The two, however, differ by orders of magnitude. Minpaku guest-nights for June–July were about 1.63 million, versus about 99.79 million guest-nights in the Overnight Travel Statistics Survey over the same two months (45.82 million in June + 53.97 million in July). On a simple comparison minpaku is only about 1.6% of the scale, so the minpaku increase cannot be read as offsetting the decline at hotels. Also note that the minpaku nationality breakdown counts guests (actual persons), while the Overnight Travel Statistics Survey counts guest-nights, so the units do not match.

By prefecture, Tokyo’s minpaku foreign share stands out at 82.9%. In the same July Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, the foreign share of Tokyo’s guest-nights was 55.4%; even allowing for the difference in units, Tokyo’s minpaku market leans more heavily on inbound visitors than its hotels do. Tokyo minpaku guests stay 4.1 nights each, the longest in Japan, suggesting minpaku serves as a base for foreign visitors on extended stays. Hokkaido (62.0%) and Fukuoka (64.7%) also exceeded 60%.

Nationality Mix — US Leads at Minpaku, China 4th; Taiwan Leads at Hotels

By nationality, the top foreign minpaku guests were from the US with 48,809 (14.6%), narrowly followed by South Korea (48,624) and Taiwan (46,981), with China fourth at 31,568 (9.4%) and Hong Kong fifth at 21,545. China had been first a year earlier with 47,209, so the ranking flipped within a year. In the Overnight Travel Statistics Survey for July 2026 (second preliminary, properties with 20+ rooms), the order was Taiwan 18.2%, China 15.2%, South Korea 13.2%, US 11.5% and Hong Kong 5.2% — the US carries more weight at minpaku.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses” (June–July 2026, guest basis) and “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (July 2026, second preliminary, guest-night basis, properties with 20+ rooms)

Source: Japan Tourism Agency, “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses” (June–July 2025 and 2026) and “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (July 2026, second preliminary). Minpaku year-on-year changes calculated by the HotelBank Editorial Team

Year-on-year movements point broadly in the same direction in both statistics. China fell −33.1% at minpaku and −44.7% at hotels etc., while South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong rose 20–60% in both. The US stands out: it fell −3.2% at hotels etc. but grew +20.9% at minpaku. The statistics do not explain why US trends diverged between hotels and minpaku, but by region, North America accounted for 16.7% and Europe 11.3% of foreign minpaku guests. For hotels seeking to attract long-stay guests from Europe and North America, the minpaku nationality mix is a useful demand signal.

Guests Sharing a Stay per Night — Group Demand of Around 4 in Wakayama, Gunma and Elsewhere

On guests per registered home, Wakayama (45.7) and Fukui (35.7) ranked at the top. This indicator, however, is also driven by short stays. Wakayama guests stay only 1.3 nights each and 95.3% are Japanese nationals, suggesting short summer beach trips and family holidays pushed up the count. Fukui had only 53 reports filed, so its prefecture-level trend should be read with a wide margin.

A more direct measure of group size is “guest-nights per night with guests” — guest-nights divided by nights with guests. It shows how many people stayed on each day a home had guests; the national figure was 2.92. Limiting to prefectures with 100+ reports, Gunma (4.76), Mie (4.35), Oita (4.09), Gifu (4.02) and Shizuoka (3.97) lead — prefectures with hot-spring towns and mountain or seaside leisure areas. Tokyo, at 2.75, is below the national figure: a market of small parties on longer stays.

Source: Calculated by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Accommodation Results of Private Lodging Businesses” (June–July 2026 appendix tables) (guest-nights ÷ nights with guests; top 7 prefectures among those with 100+ reports, plus Tokyo)

Minpaku ADR Is Not in Public Statistics — Demand Signals Operators Can Read

Many people want to know “minpaku ADR,” but the items in the Japan Tourism Agency’s periodic reports are four — nights with guests, guests, breakdown by nationality and guest-nights — and do not include rates. Minpaku rates cannot be derived from public statistics; what can be compared is hotel rates alongside changes in minpaku volume and guest mix. With that in mind, the signals hotel and ryokan operators and investors can draw from these results come down to three.

First, headroom in group rooms. That many prefectures see around 4 guests per night with guests shows substantial demand in leisure areas for 4–6 people sharing one room. Ryokan and hotels with Japanese-style rooms, Japanese-Western rooms or connecting rooms have room to capture this demand by refining per-person pricing and how they present large-group plans. Products in the same direction are increasing in cities too, such as the opening in Ryogoku, Tokyo of an apartment hotel sleeping 6–8 per room.

Second, capturing extended-stay guests. Tokyo minpaku guests stay a long 4.1 nights each, and the foreign share exceeds 80%. Rooms with washing machines, kitchenettes and long-stay discounts give hotels an option to reach this segment. The 20% rise in US guests at minpaku also supports building products for long-stay guests from Europe and North America.

Third, using it as a yardstick to identify strong-demand regions. In Hokkaido, Fukuoka, Tokyo and Okinawa, where the minpaku nights-to-days ratio exceeded the national level, business hotel room occupancy also reached 79–83% in July. For investors considering new development or acquisitions, growth in minpaku nights can be read as a supplementary indicator of how much lodging demand spills over into the surrounding area when hotels fill up. Note that minpaku operate under a registration system under the Private Lodging Business Act, which differs from the operating licenses required under the Hotel Business Act.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. What is the occupancy rate of minpaku?
A. In the Japan Tourism Agency’s June–July 2026 results, nights with guests per registered home were 15.4 days; divided by 61 days, that is about 25%. Hokkaido was 34.6%, Fukuoka 30.2% and Tokyo 28.4%. This is the share of days on which a home had guests, which is defined differently from a hotel’s room occupancy rate.

Q. Can minpaku ADR (average rate) be found in statistics?
A. The Japan Tourism Agency’s periodic reports have no rate item, so minpaku ADR cannot be calculated from public statistics. What can be compared is hotel rates: in June–July 2026, estimated settled ADR was around −4% YoY in Tokyo and +7–16% in Okinawa.

Q. How many days a year can a minpaku operate?
A. Under the Private Lodging Business Act, a registered home may host guests for up to 180 days a year. Local ordinances may further restrict the areas or periods.

Q. Which countries do most foreign minpaku guests come from?
A. In June–July 2026, the US ranked first with 48,809 guests, followed by South Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong. A year earlier, China ranked first.

Summary

In June–July 2026, registered minpaku homes rose 23.8% year-on-year and nights with guests grew 29.3%. Even so, the per-home nights-to-days ratio was flat at 25.2%, meaning the expansion came from more homes. By region, Hokkaido, Fukuoka, Tokyo and Okinawa exceeded the national level, all overlapping with areas of high hotel room occupancy. The foreign share was 57.5%, with the US taking first place by nationality and China falling to fourth. Minpaku remains only about 1.6% of hotel and ryokan guest-nights, but its signals on guest mix — groups, extended stays and guests from Europe and North America — are useful when hotels and ryokan redesign their rooms and pricing.

*The Japan Tourism Agency’s accommodation results are aggregates based on periodic reports by private lodging operators (reporting rate 85.0%). Overnight Travel Statistics Survey figures for June and July 2026 are second preliminary values; the stratification criteria changed from January 2026, so year-on-year comparisons may include the effects of that revision. Our estimates are as of the survey date of November 4, 2026.