Comparing the estimated settled ADR of hotels in Niigata Prefecture by segment against the same month a year earlier, the finalized figures for September 2026 show business hotels at ¥7,462 (N=126), up 12.6% YoY, and resort hotels at ¥11,991 (N=32), up 12.1% — both segments posting double-digit gains at the same time. In October, however, business hotels held on at ¥7,267 (N=126, +10.1%), while resort hotels slipped back to last year’s level at ¥10,977 (N=30, −0.1%), and city hotels rose to ¥9,970 (N=18, +2.7%), exceeding the prior year for the first time in seven months. Given that resort hotels were down 16.1% and city hotels down 11.9% in August, Niigata’s autumn is best read not as “everything went up,” but as a phase in which each segment is recovering in a different order. This article lays out that order using comparisons between finalized months only, and — including resort hotels, which face a steep step-up into winter — examines the sequence for restoring rates and how to set price floors.
Scope: Niigata Prefecture business hotels N=126 properties, resort hotels N=32, city hotels N=18 (all as of September 2026). The price metric in this article is estimated settled ADR (the estimated level of transacted prices derived from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions for both are at the end of the article. Data as of: November 10, 2026.
- — Two segments up by double digits in September: September 2026 estimated settled ADR was ¥7,462 for business hotels (N=126, +12.6% YoY) and ¥11,991 for resort hotels (N=32, +12.1%).
- — Only business hotels kept it up in October: In October, business hotels held +10.1%, while resorts were flat at −0.1% and city hotels rose +2.7%, beating the prior year for the first time in seven months.
- — Business hotels also beat two years ago: ¥7,462 in September and ¥7,267 in October exceed the 2024 figures for the same months (¥6,765 and ¥6,844) — a new price band.
- — Day-of-week gap of over 10 points: Estimated OCC for business hotels (September–October 2026) was 94.1% on Saturdays and 93.7% on Thursdays versus 81.0% on Sundays. Restore rates starting with the high-occupancy days.
- — Resorts are two different markets: winter vs. summer/autumn: December 2025 was about 1.7x November (¥12,410 → ¥21,379). August’s −16.1% was a rebound from a high prior year; compared with two years earlier, the level is roughly the same.
Two Segments Up by Double Digits in September — Only Business Hotels Kept It Up in October
First, we line up the finalized figures from January to October 2026 by segment, as year-over-year changes. Business hotels saw only modest gains of +1.9% to +4.9% from January through May, then jumped to +10.8% in June; after a −1.1% dip in July, they posted +5.4% in August, +12.6% in September, and +10.1% in October, widening their gains as autumn arrived. In yen terms, September added ¥836 over the prior year’s ¥6,626 (N=124), and October added ¥667 over ¥6,600 (N=126).
Resort and City Hotels — The Sign of YoY Change Flips Month to Month
Resort hotels, by contrast, have flipped between positive and negative from month to month. January through March were strong at +10.9% to +18.8%, but April fell −7.1%, June −6.1%, and August −16.1%; after recovering to +12.1% in September, October came in at −0.1%. City hotels fell short of the prior year for six straight months from April to September, finally turning positive at +2.7% in October. Overlaying the three segments on one chart makes it clear that September’s simultaneous rise was, if anything, the exceptional month.
Niigata Prefecture: YoY change in estimated settled ADR by segment (January–October 2026, finalized months compared). Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data
| Stay month (2026) | Business (N) | YoY | Resort (N) | YoY | City (N) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | ¥6,247 (129) | +4.9% | ¥24,952 (28) | +18.8% | ¥7,496 (18) | −0.8% |
| Feb | ¥6,384 (133) | +4.7% | ¥24,678 (29) | +13.1% | ¥7,472 (18) | −3.1% |
| Mar | ¥6,498 (132) | +4.0% | ¥16,527 (32) | +10.9% | ¥8,478 (18) | +8.1% |
| Apr | ¥6,554 (131) | +1.9% | ¥10,558 (32) | −7.1% | ¥8,444 (18) | −10.0% |
| May | ¥7,180 (128) | +3.2% | ¥11,940 (32) | +2.5% | ¥8,686 (18) | −3.3% |
| Jun | ¥6,849 (125) | +10.8% | ¥9,158 (30) | −6.1% | ¥7,694 (18) | −7.6% |
| Jul | ¥6,740 (124) | −1.1% | ¥12,850 (34) | +0.3% | ¥7,993 (18) | −5.3% |
| Aug | ¥8,383 (126) | +5.4% | ¥14,761 (34) | −16.1% | ¥10,355 (18) | −11.9% |
| Sep | ¥7,462 (126) | +12.6% | ¥11,991 (32) | +12.1% | ¥8,474 (18) | −2.2% |
| Oct | ¥7,267 (126) | +10.1% | ¥10,977 (30) | −0.1% | ¥9,970 (18) | +2.7% |
Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, finalized) and YoY change. Figures in parentheses are the number of properties covered in each month. Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data
Changes in Sample Size and How to Read the Data
Note that the number of properties covered shifts slightly from month to month. Business hotels stay within a range of 124 to 133 properties, but resort hotels increased from 28 properties in September last year to 32 this September, so the YoY change partly reflects a change in composition. City hotels number only 18, a small base in which a single property’s pricing policy can easily move the prefecture-wide figure. With these caveats in mind, we now look at each segment in detail.
Business and City Hotels — One Segment Topped Its Level of Two Years Ago, the Other Saw Its Gap Narrow
The autumn rise in business hotels cannot be explained simply as a rebound from a weak prior year. In 2025, September came in at ¥6,626, 2.1% below the same month of 2024 (¥6,765, N=130), and October at ¥6,600 also fell 3.6% short of 2024’s ¥6,844 (N=132). In 2026, by contrast, September reached ¥7,462 and October ¥7,267, surpassing not only the prior year but also the level of two years earlier. In other words, this autumn business hotels appear to have recovered what they had lost and then moved into a new price band. For how September’s business hotel gains were distributed nationwide, see also Business Hotel Estimated Settled ADR: 47-Prefecture Comparison (September 2026).
City Hotels — The Gap with Business Hotels Roughly Halved in September
City hotels present the opposite picture. September came in at ¥8,474, 2.2% below the prior year’s ¥8,666, and August had also fallen 11.9% to ¥10,355 from the prior year’s ¥11,759. As a result, the September gap between city and business hotels narrowed from ¥2,040 a year earlier to ¥1,012 — roughly half. In October, city hotels recovered to ¥9,970 (prior year: ¥9,707), widening the gap to ¥2,703, but this is still narrower than the ¥3,107 of October last year. The summer, when the two segments moved in opposite directions, is covered in Niigata City Hotels −11.9% vs. Business Hotels +5.4% in August — A Summer When Estimated Settled ADR Moved in Opposite Directions.
Niigata Prefecture: Estimated settled ADR of business and city hotels (tax-exclusive equivalent, finalized; 2025 and 2026 overlaid). September 2026 coverage: business N=126, city N=18. Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data
Estimated OCC by Day of Week (September–October 2026) — Thursdays and Saturdays Above 90%
The shape of occupancy across the week offers a clue to the background. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for Niigata Prefecture business hotels in September–October 2026 averaged 88.7% over 61 days, across 43–53 properties and 5,511–6,293 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). By day of week, Saturday was high at 94.1% and Thursday at 93.7%, while Sunday was 81.0% and Monday 84.8% — a spread of more than 10 points within the week. In a market where the strongest days are above 90%, rates tend to stick, which can be read as having pushed up the monthly settled price level.
| Estimated OCC (Sep–Oct 2026) | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | 61-day avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business hotels (N=43–53 properties, 5,511–6,293 rooms) | 84.8% | 88.6% | 88.7% | 93.7% | 89.0% | 94.1% | 81.0% | 88.7% |
| Resort hotels (N=14–16 properties, 2,587–2,848 rooms) | 81.4% | 80.1% | 79.2% | 82.4% | 81.9% | 87.1% | 83.8% | 82.2% |
Average estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) by day of week. Stay dates in September and October 2026 (including public holidays and long weekends; 8 days each for Monday and Sunday, 9 days each for other days). Based on listings on major booking sites. Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data
Sunday Troughs and Holiday Peaks — A Gap of Around 30 Points Between Sundays
This weekly shape, however, also raises questions for floor design. The lowest stay dates for business hotels were Sunday, October 4 (68.0%) and Sunday, September 27 (69.1%), both Sundays that did not fall within a long weekend. Meanwhile, Sunday, September 20 — the second day of a five-day holiday — filled up to 99.0%, meaning that even among Sundays, the calendar can create a difference of around 30 points. Rather than thinking about rate increases uniformly by month, there is considerable room to think separately by day of week and by calendar. Day-of-week occupancy and the Sunday trough for September alone are covered in detail in our analysis of day-of-week occupancy at Niigata Prefecture business hotels.
Resort Hotels — Double-Digit Gains Continue in Winter, While Summer and Autumn Swing Month to Month
The month-to-month flip in resort hotels’ YoY change likely reflects the fact that rates are determined differently by season. In winter, December 2025 was ¥21,379 (N=30, +19.7% YoY), January 2026 ¥24,952 (+18.8%), February ¥24,678 (+13.1%), and March ¥16,527 (+10.9%) — four consecutive months of double-digit gains. November 2025, just before the ski season, was ¥12,410 (N=30), so December was about 1.7 times that, a step-up of nearly ¥9,000 in a single month.
Summer and Autumn — Easily Swayed by the Prior Year’s Level
In the snow-free months, on the other hand, results are easily swayed by the prior year’s level. August’s −16.1% was largely a rebound effect: the comparison base, August 2025, was ¥17,592 (N=29), up a full 14.9% from the same month of 2024 (¥15,312, N=30), and August 2026’s ¥14,761 is close to the level of two years earlier. September, at ¥11,991, exceeded both the prior year’s ¥10,694 and the ¥10,954 of two years earlier (N=27), but October settled at ¥10,977, almost the same as last year’s ¥10,988. There is probably not yet enough evidence to call September’s +12.1% “a lasting turnaround.”
Niigata Prefecture: Estimated settled ADR of resort hotels (tax-exclusive equivalent, years overlaid). Solid lines are finalized figures; the dotted line (November–December 2026) is an estimate based on current sales and may change. September 2026 coverage: N=32. Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research data
Current Estimates for November–December 2026
For the coming winter, estimates based on current sales put November 2026 at ¥13,280 (N=29) and December at ¥21,291 (N=31). These values may change depending on how sales progress, and a simple comparison with the prior year’s finalized figures must wait until the months close. Even so, the seasonal shape itself — a large step-up from November to December — appears unchanged this year.
Resort Estimated OCC (September–October 2026) — A Day-of-Week Spread of About 8 Points
On the occupancy side, estimated OCC for resort hotels in September–October 2026 (14–16 properties, 2,587–2,848 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites) averaged 82.2% over 61 days. Saturday was highest at 87.1% and Wednesday lowest at 79.2%, but the day-of-week spread of about 8 points is smaller than for business hotels. By month, October was higher at 85.1% versus 79.3% in September, meaning October combined sustained occupancy with rates flat to the prior year.
For Revenue Managers of Business, Resort, and City Hotels in Niigata — Implications and Action Plan
1. Plan the order of rate restoration starting with “days where occupancy reaches 90%+.” Estimated OCC for business hotels is 93.7% on Thursdays and 94.1% on Saturdays versus 81.0% on Sundays — a clear weekly shape. In a phase where the market’s settled price level is moving at +10% or more YoY, the realistic sequence is to first review your own selling conditions on high-occupancy days and address the trough days afterward.
2. There is room to use “two years ago,” not just “last year,” as a yardstick for floors. Resorts were down 16.1% YoY in August but were roughly on par with the level of two years earlier. In months when the prior year spiked, setting floors based only on YoY tends to place them above actual market levels. Conversely, months like September and October for business hotels, which also exceeded two years ago, are worth considering for raising the floor itself.
3. Resorts should keep separate calendars for winter and summer/autumn. In winter, the market accepted rate increases of +10.9% to +19.7% for four consecutive months, whereas September’s +12.1% reverted to −0.1% in October. In a market with a roughly 1.7x step-up from November to December, how you bridge the transition weeks — and at what level — can easily make or break revenue.
4. For city hotels, restoring rates while watching “the gap with business hotels” is likely to be effective. The September gap between the two segments narrowed from ¥2,040 a year earlier to ¥1,012. With only 18 city hotels in the prefecture, each property’s settings can easily move the market figure itself. Using October’s +2.7% as a foothold, verify rate levels starting with the months where the gap has narrowed.
Action Plan by Timeframe
| Timing | Action | Decision trigger (figures from this article) | Objective |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week | Calculate the YoY change in your property’s settled rates for September and October and compare with the market | If your property fell short of +12.6% / +10.1% (business), +12.1% / −0.1% (resort), or −2.2% / +2.7% (city) | Distinguish the months in which you captured the market’s rise from those in which you missed it |
| This week | Compare your day-of-week occupancy with the market’s shape (business) | If your Thursdays and Saturdays are close to the market’s 93.7% / 94.1% but rates are still set the same as weekdays | Identify the first target dates in the restoration sequence |
| Within 2 weeks | Reset Sunday and Monday floors by calendar type (business) | If you use the same floor for Sundays outside long weekends (market fell to 68.0–69.1%) and Sundays within long weekends (market 99.0%) | Protect occupancy on trough days and capture rate on holiday Sundays |
| Within 2 weeks | Review the price ladder for the transition weeks from late November to December (resort) | Last year the market went from ¥12,410 in November to ¥21,379 in December, about 1.7x. If your ladder is gentler than this and begins filling early | Prevent inventory from selling out at low rates at the start of winter |
| Toward next month | Model next summer’s floors against both last year and two years ago (resort, city) | Given that August market figures were −16.1% for resorts and −11.9% for city hotels, if your floors are based only on last year’s results | Hold realistic floors that account for rebounds in months where the prior year was high |
| Toward next month | Track the price gap with business hotels monthly (city) | The market gap was ¥1,012 in September and ¥2,703 in October. If the gap between your property and nearby business-hotel rates becomes narrower than this | Decide how far to restore rates while maintaining your positioning as a segment |
Each of these actions is a procedure for comparing prefecture-wide aggregates with your own property’s results; the appropriate level will vary with location and guest mix. Use the market figures as a yardstick to confirm direction, and make final settings in line with how bookings are actually coming in at your property.
Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Niigata’s Autumn
To sum up, hotel rates in Niigata Prefecture can be read through three points. First, business hotels posted double-digit gains for two consecutive months — +12.6% in September and +10.1% in October — and exceeded the level of two years earlier. Second, resort hotels were strong in the four winter months at +10.9% to +19.7%, but swung month to month in summer and autumn (−16.1% in August, +12.1% in September, −0.1% in October), and are easily swayed by the prior year’s level. Third, city hotels turned positive at +2.7% in October after six months below the prior year, but their gap with business hotels remains narrower than a year ago.
Placing the three yardsticks — “YoY,” “vs. two years ago,” and “gap between segments” — side by side shows that even within the same prefecture, the order in which rates should be restored looks different. October’s finalized figures suggest that September’s simultaneous rise may have been a temporary overlap; the next points to watch in the finalized figures from November onward are whether business hotels’ double-digit gains continue and whether resorts’ winter again exceeds the prior year.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. How much did business hotel rates in Niigata Prefecture rise in autumn 2026?
A. Estimated settled ADR (tax-exclusive equivalent, finalized) was ¥7,462 (N=126) in September 2026, up 12.6% YoY, and ¥7,267 (N=126) in October, up 10.1%. Both also exceeded the same months two years earlier.
Q. Why were resort hotels down 16.1% YoY in August?
A. Largely because the comparison base, August 2025, was ¥17,592 — up 14.9% from the same month of 2024. August 2026’s ¥14,761 is close to August 2024’s ¥15,312.
Q. How much do resort hotel rates in Niigata rise in winter?
A. On finalized figures, December was ¥21,379 versus ¥12,410 in November 2025 — about 1.7 times — and January 2026 was ¥24,952. It is a market with a large step-up at the start of the ski season.
Q. How has the price gap between city hotels and business hotels in Niigata changed?
A. The gap in estimated settled ADR in September 2026 was ¥1,012, roughly half of the ¥2,040 in September of the prior year. In October, city hotels recovered to ¥9,970, widening the gap to ¥2,703, but it remained narrower than the ¥3,107 of October last year.
Q. How much does business hotel occupancy in Niigata vary by day of week?
A. Estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) for September–October 2026 was 94.1% on Saturdays and 93.7% on Thursdays versus 81.0% on Sundays and 84.8% on Mondays — a spread of more than 10 points within the week (61-day average: 88.7%).
About the Data
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Definition of estimated OCC | Occupancy based on OTA-listed inventory = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. Coverage is a fixed cohort of properties listing at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for every stay date). It is an estimate based on the sell-through of inventory sold on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (rooms not listed are counted as sold, so the figure tends to run high). Stay dates in September and October 2026. |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date up to the most recent point. The estimated OCC in this article is the value immediately before each stay date. |
| Definition of estimated settled ADR | The settled price level (tax-exclusive equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan rate level × segment-specific coefficient, ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are finalized figures; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error of 6.6% when checked against published operating results. |
| Coverage breakdown | Estimated settled ADR for Niigata Prefecture: business hotels N=124–133 properties (126 in September 2026), resort hotels N=26–34 properties (32 in the same month), city hotels N=18 properties. YoY changes are calculated between finalized months. Estimated OCC: business hotels N=43–53 properties, 5,511–6,293 rooms; resort hotels N=14–16 properties, 2,587–2,848 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites). |
| Data as of | Data as of: November 10, 2026. Because sales and inventory change daily, the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. |
■ Data Sources
Based on OTA and other sales data collected by MetroEngines Research (business, resort, and city hotels in Niigata Prefecture), aggregated by segment and stay month by the HotelBank Editorial Team. Estimated settled ADR covers finalized figures from January 2024 to October 2026 and current estimates for November–December 2026; estimated OCC covers 61 stay dates in September and October 2026. Data as of November 10, 2026.
■ Calculation Assumptions
Both YoY and two-year comparisons are calculated between finalized months; months that are current estimates (November–December 2026) are not used in comparisons. Estimated settled ADR is per room, tax-exclusive equivalent. Estimated OCC uses a fixed cohort of properties listing at least 30% of total rooms on OTAs, with the value immediately before each stay date averaged by day of week. Differences between segments are simple differences between prefecture averages.
■ Limitations and Caveats
The number of properties covered varies by month (resorts: 28 properties last September → 32 this September), so YoY changes partly reflect compositional change. City hotels number only 18, a small base in which a single property’s pricing policy can easily move the prefecture-wide figure. Estimated OCC counts unlisted rooms as sold and therefore runs higher than actual room occupancy. Estimated settled ADR is an estimate with a median error of 6.6% against published operating results and does not represent the results of any individual property.
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