The 71st Korankei Momiji (Autumn Leaves) Festival, announced by the Toyota City Asuke Tourism Association, runs from Sunday, November 1 to Monday, November 30, 2026, with the Mt. Iimori light-up held every day of the festival from sunset until 9:00 p.m. Korankei has roughly 3,000 maple trees, and the leaves typically peak from mid- to late November. Re-pulling MetroEngines Research data on October 19, 2026 shows that Toyota City’s settled ADR estimate peaked at ¥8,700 in November 2025, up 13.4% from October, and that of the three Saturdays falling within the 2026 festival period, only Saturday, November 7 was running ahead, at 87.7% occupancy (estimated from OTA-listed inventory) 20 days out. This article maps out, with figures and a map, the November ADR step-up, the booking curves for the three Saturdays, and the room supply within a 30–60 minute drive that absorbs the demand Asuke’s small lodging base cannot.

The 71st Korankei Momiji Festival at a Glance — November 1–30, Light-Up from Sunset to 9:00 p.m.

First, the event details from official sources. According to the Toyota City Asuke Tourism Association, the 71st Korankei Momiji Festival runs for one month, from Sunday, November 1 to Monday, November 30, 2026, at Asuke Korankei Plaza (Iimori, Asuke-cho, Toyota City). The Mt. Iimori light-up is held every day in November from sunset to 9:00 p.m., and the association states explicitly that neither the period nor the hours will be extended. Korankei is said to have about 3,000 maple trees, and the leaves typically peak from mid- to late November.

There is one notable change in transport for 2026. The direct bus linking Yakusa Station and Korankei will not run this year; the three public-transport routes offered are Meitetsu Bus from Toyota-shi Station (about 40 minutes), Toyota Oiden Bus from Jōsui Station (about 60 minutes), and Meitetsu Bus from Higashi-Okazaki Station (about 70 minutes). By car, it is about 20 minutes from Toyota Kanpachi IC on the Tokai-Kanjo Expressway, but since April 2025 vehicles without an ETC unit cannot enter or exit the Tokai-Kanjo Expressway, so the prefecture’s tourism site advises non-ETC vehicles to use Toyota IC on the Tomei Expressway instead. Parking cannot be reserved and costs ¥1,000 per entry for a standard car.

Source: Toyota City Asuke Tourism Association, “71st Korankei Momiji Festival”; Aichi Prefecture tourism site Aichi Now

Toyota City’s November ADR Rose 13–15% Over October Two Years Running — Compared with Okazaki and the Aichi Average

Let us start with the seasonality of rates. Toyota City’s settled ADR estimate (29 properties) rose 13.4%, from ¥7,700 in October 2025 to ¥8,700 in November, then fell back to ¥7,500 in December. In 2024, the year before, it followed the same shape, rising 15.2% from ¥7,200 in October to ¥8,300 in November — a single-peak pattern with November alone standing out, repeated two years in a row. Year over year, November 2025 was up 4.4%, so the height of the peak itself is edging up gradually.

That said, this November step-up is not unique to Toyota City. Neighboring Okazaki (15 properties) rose 10.9%, from ¥6,700 in October 2025 to ¥7,400 in November, and Aichi Prefecture as a whole (497 properties) rose 11.7%, from ¥8,700 to ¥9,800 — moving in the same direction in the same month. The reasonable reading is that, on top of a prefecture-wide seasonality in which autumn leisure travel overlaps with mid-fiscal-year corporate demand, Korankei’s draw adds a few extra points in Toyota City. Indeed, Toyota City’s ADR was 17.5% above Okazaki’s in November 2025, a wider gap than in October (+14.9%). The year-round rate structure by municipality within the prefecture, including Toyota, Okazaki and Kariya, is covered in Aichi Hotel ADR Gap 2.8x: Minamichita ¥16,900 vs Kariya ¥6,100.

Broken down by segment, the step-up is even clearer. Toyota City’s business hotels (21 properties) rose 23.5%, from ¥6,800 in October 2025 to ¥8,500 in November. Weekday corporate demand supports the floor, and weekend foliage visitors are layered on top. Meanwhile, September 2026 coincided with the Asian Games (September 19 – October 4), and Toyota City’s settled ADR estimate jumped to ¥9,700, up 32.4% year over year. Because months from October onward can only be estimated from current listings, this article uses the confirmed November 2025 figures as its baseline.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Toyota City, median settled ADR estimate, 29–32 properties, confirmed months only)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (settled ADR estimate, tax-exclusive equivalent, confirmed months)

Booking Curves for Three Saturdays — November 7 Leads at 87.7% 20 Days Out

So how full are the festival-period weekends? The curves below overlay three dates — Saturday, October 31; Saturday, November 7; and Saturday, November 14 — from LT45 to the latest observation, for 16 properties / 1,182 rooms in Toyota City (based on listings on major booking sites). The final observation date was October 18, which corresponds to LT13, LT20 and LT27 respectively.

The three lines start from different places. At LT45, October 31 was at 68.1% and November 14 at 69.8%, while November 7 was already about 10pt higher at 80.2%. November 7 then kept ticking up — 83.1% at LT36, 85.2% at LT30, 87.6% at LT25 — reaching 87.7% (145 rooms left) at LT20. Aligned at the same LT27, the figures are 69.8% for October 31, 86.2% for November 7 and 77.7% for November 14, meaning November 7 leads October 31 by 16.4pt and November 14 by 8.5pt.

October 31, on the other hand, stayed flat at around 68.1% for three weeks from LT45, then began moving close in: 72.1% after LT22, 76.1% at LT15 and 76.4% at LT13 (279 rooms left). It is the night before the festival opens, before the light-up has started, so its shape is close to that of a normal Saturday in Toyota City. November 14 is the weekend when the leaves begin to peak, but at LT27 it stood at 77.7% (263 rooms left), 8.5pt below November 7 at the same lead time. Given that foliage demand tends to book later for peak-color weekends, how this date builds over the next four weeks is the point to watch.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Toyota City, 16 properties / 1,182 rooms based on listings on major booking sites, LT45 to latest, pulled October 19, 2026)

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (occupancy estimated from OTA-listed inventory; 16 properties / 1,182 rooms based on listings on major booking sites. “—” = lead time not yet reached)

Why November 7 Leads Cannot Be Pinned to One Cause — Stadium Match, Festival’s First Weekend, Bamboo Lanterns

This article does not attribute the fact that only Saturday, November 7 was already high 45 days out to any single cause. There are at least three candidates. First, the official J.League schedule has Meiji Yasuda J1 League Matchday 14, Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyoto Sanga F.C., at Toyota Stadium at 2:00 p.m. that day. The stadium is within walking distance of Toyota-shi Station, and overnight stays in the city by away fans and long-distance supporters tend to accumulate from 45 days out as demand independent of the foliage. Second, November 7 is the first Saturday after the festival opens; according to the Asuke Tourism Association, the weekend “wish candles” begin that day, and the bamboo lanterns at Kojaku-ji Temple are also held on weekends from 6:00 to 8:30 p.m. Third, other events within the prefecture that could spill over into Toyota City — such as large concerts or trade shows in Nagoya — cannot be ruled out.

Looking at the same three dates for Aichi Prefecture as a whole as a comparison (362 properties / 34,573 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites), the picture is the reverse of Toyota City’s. Prefecture-wide at LT45, October 31 was at 69.3% and November 7 at 72.1%, while November 14 was the highest at 86.8%, reaching 93.3% by LT27. In other words, at the prefectural level there is a big demand peak on the November 14 weekend, while Toyota City has its own separate peak on November 7. This “offset” is precisely what makes it easier to explain Toyota City’s lead on November 7 with factors specific to the city (the stadium match and the festival’s first weekend). However, inventory data cannot separate how many points each factor contributes.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (Toyota City = 16 properties / 1,182 rooms; Aichi Prefecture = 362 properties / 34,573 rooms; both based on listings on major booking sites)

Overflow Capacity Lies Within a 30–60 Minute Drive — 3,648 Active Rooms Around Toyota-shi, Higashi-Okazaki, Kariya, Fujigaoka and Korankei

Asuke itself has very little lodging. Within a 5,000m radius of Korankei there are 4 listed properties with 10 or more rooms, totaling 40 rooms, and only one active property with 10 rooms had confirmed selling prices in the past three months. Demand from visitors who stay for the light-up until 9:00 p.m. and then need a bed inevitably flows to urban areas 30–60 minutes away by car or bus. We therefore counted room supply under the same conditions around four hubs: Toyota-shi Station and Higashi-Okazaki Station, the starting points for public transport to Korankei; Kariya Station, on the route from the Tokaido Line / Tomei and Isewangan Expressway directions; and Fujigaoka Station in eastern Nagoya.

Room supply in this article covers lodging properties with 10 or more rooms (excluding leisure/love hotels) within a 3,000m radius of Toyota-shi Station; “active” refers to properties with selling prices confirmed on major booking sites in the past three months (August–October 2026) (as of October 20, 2026, compiled by MetroEngines Research). Higashi-Okazaki Station and Kariya Station use the same 3,000m radius; Fujigaoka Station and Korankei use a 5,000m radius.

Source: MetroEngines Research (10+ rooms, excluding leisure hotels, as of October 20, 2026). Bus travel times per the Toyota City Asuke Tourism Association; driving times are approximate

The numbers show that the center of gravity of this overflow capacity is around Toyota-shi Station. Of the 16 active properties / 1,673 rooms within 3km, business hotels account for 1,423 rooms, and the 101–200-room class is the thickest at 962 rooms. The Higashi-Okazaki Station area follows with 879 rooms, but the bus to Korankei takes about 70 minutes, and the prefecture’s tourism site warns that there are no return buses via Higashi-Okazaki after 7:00 p.m. on weekdays. The 773 rooms around Kariya Station can readily serve as a night-before base for travelers coming from the Tokaido Line / Tomei direction. The Fujigaoka Station area is thin at 313 rooms, and with no direct bus from Yakusa Station in 2026, its advantage as a public-transport gateway to Korankei is weaker than last year.

● Blue = Toyota-shi Station area　● Navy = Higashi-Okazaki Station area　● Light blue = Kariya Station area　● Gray = Fujigaoka Station area　● Red = Korankei 5km area　★ = Korankei. Circle size reflects room count; dashed lines show the counting radius.

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Source: Compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (10+ rooms, excluding leisure hotels, as of October 20, 2026)

Reading the November 21–23 Three-Day Weekend Through Last November’s Confirmed ADR

The three-day weekend from Saturday, November 21 to Monday, November 23 (Labor Thanksgiving Day), which coincides with the peak of the foliage, was more than 45 days from check-in at the time of our data pull, so its booking curve includes observations taken before inventory was fully loaded and does not reflect booking progress. We therefore do not present figures for the long weekend and limit ourselves to describing levels using last November’s confirmed values. Toyota City’s settled ADR estimate for November 2025 was ¥8,700, and ¥8,500 for business hotels alone — levels 13.4% and 23.5% above October, respectively. A step-up of this size in the average for the whole of November suggests that rate peaks are concentrated on the peak-foliage weekends and the long weekend.

As a reference point, our earlier report, which read booking progress for the same three-day weekend across five prefectures — Kyoto, Nagano, Tochigi, Gifu and Kanagawa — as of October 9, found 18% of rooms left at Kyoto ryokan and 32% in Nagano. Aichi was not covered, but given the strength of Toyota City’s November 7 lead and the prefecture-wide peak on November 14, there is room for the initial build of the long-weekend curve, once it enters LT45 in early October, to come in on the early side, as in other prefectures with strong foliage demand. We intend to observe it again once the curve is within LT45 and cover it in a follow-up.

Implications for Operators — A Leading November 7, and Upside Remaining on October 31 and November 14

Putting this together, Toyota City’s lodging market presents three opportunities. The first is Saturday, November 7. With 87.7% occupancy and 145 rooms left 20 days out, this is a date where the remaining inventory can be captured on rate. The confirmed November 2025 ADR of ¥8,700 is evidence that the market accepted a 13.4% premium over October, and on a date where a stadium match overlaps with the first foliage weekend, there is room to test stepwise rate increases on the remaining close-in inventory.

The second is Saturday, October 31 and Saturday, November 14. At 76.4% (LT13) and 77.7% (LT27) respectively, they have more rooms left than November 7 — 279 and 263. October 31 is the night before the light-up begins, a date on which properties can pitch “stay the night before and be there for the opening” to guests who want to arrive first thing on the festival’s opening day. November 14 is the weekend when peak color begins, and since foliage visitors move after checking peak forecasts, a close-in pickup can be expected over the next four weeks. Including distinctive terms such as “Korankei,” “light-up” and “until 9 p.m.” in plan names, and building the roughly 40-minute Meitetsu Bus route from Toyota-shi Station into guest information, should be effective ways to differentiate from hotels in Nagoya.

The third is positioning as overflow capacity. With only 10 active rooms in Asuke, guests who stay for the light-up return to urban areas to sleep. The 1,673 rooms around Toyota-shi Station, 879 around Higashi-Okazaki and 773 around Kariya all have a base of weekday corporate demand, so capturing foliage visitors on weekends has a large effect in filling the day-of-week trough (the day-of-week troughs for Aichi business hotels can be seen in Aichi Business Hotels: Thu 92.5%, Sun 84.8% OCC — A Friday Dip Too). In 2026, the absence of the direct bus from Yakusa Station means the public-transport route from eastern Nagoya is thinner than usual, which could also be a tailwind for properties around Toyota-shi Station.

Summary

The 71st Korankei Momiji Festival runs November 1–30, with the light-up held every day from sunset to 9:00 p.m. Toyota City’s settled ADR estimate peaked at ¥8,700 in November 2025, up 13.4% from October, forming a November peak for the second straight year, confirming a pattern in which a Korankei premium sits on top of prefecture-wide seasonality. Of the three festival Saturdays, November 7 leads at 87.7% 20 days out; the stadium match and the festival’s first weekend are candidate drivers, but we do not draw a firm conclusion on how much each contributes. The shortfall in Asuke lodging is absorbed by 3,648 active rooms across four hubs within a 30–60 minute drive plus the Korankei area, with the center of gravity in the 1,673 rooms around Toyota-shi Station. We will observe the November 21–23 three-day weekend again once it enters LT45.

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