Breaking down the estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) of business hotels in Toyama Prefecture for October 2026 by day of week, Saturday reached 97.7% while Sunday stayed at 80.7% — a 17.0-point step between two adjacent nights. The monthly average was a high 93.4% (N=33-35 properties / 4,833-4,964 rooms, based on listings on major booking sites), and Tuesday through Thursday also filled to 94.9%-97.4%. In other words, Toyama in October was a market where “almost every night runs at high occupancy, and only Sunday is a trough.” This article reads the booking curve at three points — 45 days out, 30 days out and the night before — to pinpoint when this day-of-week shape was set, and summarizes the operational implications.
Scope: Toyama Prefecture business hotels, N=33-35 properties / 4,833-4,964 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites; estimated OCC); estimated settled ADR uses N=72 properties (October 2026). The price metric in this article is the estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent), and occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of November 10, 2026.
- — Saturday 97.7%, Sunday 80.7%: The estimated OCC of Toyama Prefecture business hotels in October 2026 (OTA-listed inventory basis, day-of-week averages excluding the 3-day weekend) shows a 17.0-point step between two adjacent nights. The monthly average was a high 93.4%.
- — The gap opened after T-30: At 45 days out, Sunday (65.1%) was ahead of Monday-Wednesday (58.0-59.1%), but from 30 days out to the night before, Tuesday added +30.8pt and Wednesday +32.2pt while Sunday gained only +11.7pt.
- — Read holiday weekends by “night before a day off, or the last day”: The middle-day Sunday of the 3-day weekend (October 11) filled to 96.9%, while the final-day Monday holiday (October 12) came in at 78.2%, close to a regular Sunday.
- — Estimated settled ADR of ¥7,387 (+12.1% YoY): The final figure for October 2026 (N=72 properties). Precisely because high occupancy and rising rates coincide this month, how to design the Sunday trough becomes the key issue for monthly revenue.
Estimated OCC by Day of Week — Thursday and Saturday in the 97% Range, Only Sunday in the 80s
First, let us check the level for each day of week. The 3-day weekend of October 10-12 behaves differently from a normal week, so it is excluded; the chart below averages the remaining 28 days by day of week. Thursday (97.4%) and Saturday (97.7%) lead, followed by Wednesday at 96.1%, Tuesday at 94.9% and Friday at 93.8%. Monday is somewhat lower at 89.1%, and Sunday, at 80.7%, is the only day in the low 80s.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Notably, Sunday’s weakness is not the result of any single week. The three Sundays in scope fell within a narrow band of 78.5%-82.8%, each more than 10 points below the monthly average. Saturday, by contrast, was 96.6%-98.9% on all four dates, with almost no variance. The day-of-week shape itself appears stable. For the same Toyama business hotels viewed by day of week over the summer (June-August 2026), see Toyama business hotels: estimated OCC by day of week (June-August).
| Day | Days in Scope | Avg. Estimated OCC | Min | Max | vs. Monthly Avg. 93.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 3 days | 89.1% | 87.7% | 91.0% | −4.3pt |
| Tuesday | 4 days | 94.9% | 94.0% | 96.9% | +1.5pt |
| Wednesday | 4 days | 96.1% | 94.8% | 97.1% | +2.7pt |
| Thursday | 5 days | 97.4% | 94.7% | 98.9% | +4.0pt |
| Friday | 5 days | 93.8% | 86.6% | 97.7% | +0.4pt |
| Saturday | 4 days | 97.7% | 96.6% | 98.9% | +4.3pt |
| Sunday | 3 days | 80.7% | 78.5% | 82.8% | −12.7pt |
October 2026, Toyama Prefecture business hotels (N=33-35 properties / 4,833-4,964 rooms). 28 days excluding the 3-day weekend (October 10-12). The 93.4% monthly average is based on all 31 days. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Friday alone shows a wide range. Four of its five dates were 93.6%-97.7%, but October 30 at month-end sank to 86.6%, pulling the average down to 93.8%. Friday sits on the boundary between weekday business-travel demand and weekend leisure demand, so its profile tends to change from week to week. So at what stage of the booking process did these day-of-week gaps emerge? Next, we follow the timeline with booking curves.
Booking Curves by Day of Week — Weekdays Build in the Final 30 Days, Sunday Stalls
Averaging estimated OCC from 45 days before the stay date to the night before, by day of week, reveals a ranking quite different from the final levels. At 45 days out, Sunday stood at 65.1%, actually ahead of Monday (58.0%), Tuesday (59.1%) and Wednesday (58.4%). In the early stage, Sunday was booking faster than the first half of the week.
The horizontal axis shows days remaining until the stay date (45 days out to the night before). Day-of-week averages excluding the 3-day weekend. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The gap opened from 30 days out onward. Tuesday climbed +30.8 points from 64.1% at T-30 to 94.9% the night before, and Wednesday +32.2 points from 63.9% to 96.1%, while Sunday rose only +11.7 points, from 69.0% to 80.7%. Wednesday overtook Sunday’s level 15 days before the stay date and Monday did so 11 days before, so the ranking flips at roughly the two-week mark.
| Day | T-45 | T-30 | Final (Night Before) | T-45 to T-30 | T-30 to Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 58.0% | 63.0% | 89.1% | +5.0pt | +26.1pt |
| Tuesday | 59.1% | 64.1% | 94.9% | +5.0pt | +30.8pt |
| Wednesday | 58.4% | 63.9% | 96.1% | +5.5pt | +32.2pt |
| Thursday | 66.4% | 72.6% | 97.4% | +6.2pt | +24.8pt |
| Friday | 73.9% | 80.6% | 93.8% | +6.7pt | +13.2pt |
| Saturday | 87.6% | 91.7% | 97.7% | +4.1pt | +6.0pt |
| Sunday | 65.1% | 69.0% | 80.7% | +3.9pt | +11.7pt |
October 2026 stays, Toyama Prefecture business hotels (N=33-35 properties / 4,833-4,964 rooms). Day-of-week averages excluding the 3-day weekend. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Saturday showed the opposite pattern. It was already at 87.6% at 45 days out and reached 91.7% at 30 days out; after reaching the 97% range two weeks before, it stayed almost flat to the end. It fills early and then barely moves. Thursday started earlier than other weekdays at 66.4% at T-45 and added another +24.8 points after T-30 to reach 97.4%. Thursday’s distinguishing feature is that it has both early depth and late pickup.
To sum up, Toyama business hotels follow three booking paths: Saturday, which fills early; Monday-Wednesday, which grow sharply in the final 30 days; and Sunday, which starts early but stalls midway. Even in the last 7 days alone, Tuesday added +11.2 points, Wednesday +10.1 and Monday +9.3, versus +4.5 for Sunday — a clear difference in the depth of last-minute demand.
The 3-Day Weekend — The Middle Sunday Behaves Like a Saturday, the Final Monday Like a Sunday
Looking separately at the excluded 3-day weekend (October 10-12) shows that occupancy is driven less by the day of week than by “whether the next day is a day off.” October 11, the middle day, filled to 96.9% despite being a Sunday — 16.2 points above the regular-Sunday 80.7%. Conversely, the final day, October 12 (Monday, national holiday), came in at 78.2%, below the regular-Monday 89.1% and close to a normal Sunday.
| Stay Date | Position in Holiday | T-45 | T-30 | Final (Night Before) | Closest Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 (Sat) | First day | 78.3% | 92.2% | 99.6% | Saturday-type (even higher) |
| Oct 11 (Sun) | Middle day | 66.8% | 76.6% | 96.9% | Saturday-type |
| Oct 12 (Mon, holiday) | Final day | 53.1% | 57.4% | 78.2% | Sunday-type |
October 2026, Toyama Prefecture business hotels (N=34 properties / 4,878 rooms). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The curve shapes swapped as well. The first-day Saturday was already at 92.2% at T-30, as early as a regular Saturday, and the middle-day Sunday added +20.3 points from 76.6% at T-30 to the night before. The final day, by contrast, started low at 53.1% at T-45 and 57.4% at T-30, directly reflecting the weakness of a night followed by a workday. In months that include a holiday weekend, it fits reality better to classify inventory not by “day of week” but by “night before a day off, or the last day of the holiday.” For the same October 3-day weekend tracked in another prefecture, see also Akita ryokan and business hotels: the 3-day weekend vs. regular weekends.
Where Estimated Settled ADR Stands — October Final at ¥7,387, +12.1% YoY
High occupancy also shows up in rates. The estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent) of Toyama Prefecture business hotels for October 2026 was finalized at ¥7,387 (N=72), +12.1% versus ¥6,591 (N=67) in the same month a year earlier. Overlaying the annual pattern, peaks fall in May and August, and October forms an autumn plateau. In 2026, October has risen to the second-highest level after August’s ¥7,719 (N=71).
Estimated settled ADR of Toyama Prefecture business hotels (tax-excluded equivalent, finalized months only). 2025: N=62-67 properties; 2026: N=67-72 properties. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Note that estimated settled ADR is a monthly metric and does not show rate differences by day of week. The point here is that a high 93.4% average occupancy and rates above the prior year occur in the same month. Because demand is deep across the month as a whole, how the one trough — Sunday — is handled is likely to be the issue that moves monthly revenue. Estimated OCC and estimated settled ADR cover different sets of properties, so read them as two views of the same market from different angles.
For Revenue Managers of Toyama Business Hotels — Implications and Action Plan
1. Measure pace with a day-of-week yardstick
The market’s T-30 level is 91.7% for Saturday versus 64.1% for Tuesday and 63.9% for Wednesday — a gap of nearly 30 points depending on the day. Judging your own booking pace against a single benchmark makes the early weekdays always look “behind” and Saturday always look “on track.” Only by lining up your own numbers against the day-of-week T-45, T-30 and final levels will the true pace become visible.
2. For Monday-Wednesday, “in the 60s at T-30” is the market norm
Tuesday and Wednesday added more than +30 points after T-30, and about 10 points in the last 7 days alone. Plenty of open inventory at 30 days out is simply normal in this market. It is worth considering not rushing early price adjustments and leaving room to capture last-minute demand.
3. Treat Sunday as a day that “does not grow much by waiting”
Sunday starts ahead of the early weekdays at 65.1% at T-45, but its gain from T-30 to the night before was only +11.7 points. Since late pickup cannot be counted on, acting earlier leaves more options. Given that Saturday fills to 87.6% as early as T-45 in this market, there appears to be room to build offerings for stays spanning Saturday and Sunday.
4. Read the final day of a holiday weekend as a “Sunday”
Over the October 3-day weekend, the middle-day Sunday hit 96.9% and the final-day Monday 78.2%, inverting the usual day-of-week relationship. For months that include a holiday weekend, color-coding the pricing and inventory calendar by whether the night precedes a day off — rather than by calendar weekday — keeps decisions consistent.
Mapped onto a timeline, the following review flow can be considered. Each step is meant for comparing the market figures in this article with your own property’s results; the effect will vary with each property’s location and guest mix.
| Lead Time | Action | Decision Trigger (figures in this article) | Objective |
|---|---|---|---|
| T-45 | Take stock of Sunday and holiday-final-day inventory as a “separate bucket” | Market level at T-45: Sunday 65.1%, holiday final day 53.1%. Is your property tracking below these on the same days? | Identify early the days with little upside, and secure time to review channels and stay conditions |
| T-45 | Review Saturday selling conditions | Saturday has reached 87.6% at T-45. Is your property filling just as early? | Check rate opportunities on early-filling days and offerings for Saturday-Sunday multi-night stays |
| T-30 | Confirm a policy of not moving Tuesday-Wednesday inventory hastily | Tuesday 64.1% and Wednesday 63.9% are the market levels at T-30. More than +30pt was added from there to the final night | Keep room for late business-travel demand and preserve scope to hold rates |
| T-30 | Decide on additional measures for Sunday | Sunday gained only +11.7pt, from 69.0% at T-30 to 80.7% at the final night. Has your Sunday reached the market’s 69.0% at T-30? | For days with little pickup, have the option to act rather than wait |
| T-14 | Compare weekday and Sunday pace side by side | In the market, Wednesday overtook Sunday at T-15 and Monday at T-11. Is the same crossover happening at your property? | Judge each day’s pace against the market’s shape |
| Final days | Track remaining Monday-Wednesday inventory daily in the final week | Pickup in the last 7 days: Monday +9.3pt, Tuesday +11.2pt, Wednesday +10.1pt | Sharpen decisions on stop-sell and condition changes for days with deep last-minute demand |
Summary — View Days of Week in Three Types: “Fills Early, Grows Late, Stalls Midway”
In October 2026, Toyama Prefecture business hotels ran at a high 93.4% monthly average, with only Sunday sinking to 80.7%. The gap arose not from the early booking pace but from how bookings grew from 30 days before the stay date onward. Saturday filled to 87.6% by T-45, Monday-Wednesday added 26-32 points in the final 30 days, and Sunday stalled at +11.7 points.
This three-way classification — “days that fill early,” “days that grow late” and “days that stall midway” — is a yardstick that can be carried over to other months and other areas. For a neighboring prefecture, Niigata Prefecture business hotels by day of week (September 2026 results) treats the Sunday trough with the same framework. A good starting point is to record your own day-of-week pace at T-45, T-30 and the final night, and overlay it on the market’s shape. In Toyama, where October’s estimated settled ADR was finalized at +12.1% YoY, how to design the Sunday trough and the final day of holiday weekends will be the entry point for finding the next gains.
About the Data
| Estimated OCC definition | OTA-listed inventory-based occupancy = 100 − 100 × OTA-listed remaining rooms ÷ total rooms. The scope is a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date; property counts are as shown in “Breakdown of N=” below). It is an estimate based on the sell-through of inventory sold on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it reads higher because unlisted rooms are counted as sold). |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the latest point. “Final” in this article means the value as of the night before the stay date. Target month: October 2026 stays. |
| Estimated settled ADR definition | The settled price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level × segment-specific factor, an ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are final figures; current and future months are estimates based on current sales. Median error of 6.6% when checked against published operating results. This article uses finalized months only. |
| Breakdown of N= | Estimated OCC and booking curves: Toyama Prefecture business hotels, N=33 properties / 4,833 rooms (October 1-2), N=34 properties / 4,878 rooms (October 3-30), N=35 properties / 4,964 rooms (October 31), all based on listings on major booking sites. Day-of-week averages cover 28 days excluding the 3-day weekend (October 10-12): Mon 3, Tue 4, Wed 4, Thu 5, Fri 5, Sat 4, Sun 3. Estimated settled ADR: Toyama Prefecture business hotels, N=72 properties (October 2026), N=67 properties (October 2025). |
| Data as of | Data as of November 10, 2026. Sales and inventory change daily, so the figures in this article are a snapshot at the time of retrieval. |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
■ Data Sources
Aggregated data from MetroEngines Research’s daily observation of listed inventory and selling prices on major booking sites. Estimated OCC and booking curves: Toyama Prefecture business hotels, N=33-35 properties / 4,833-4,964 rooms; estimated settled ADR: N=62-72 properties (varies by month). Data as of November 10, 2026.
■ Calculation Assumptions
Estimated OCC by day of week is the simple average, by day of week, of daily values for the 28 days excluding the 3-day weekend (October 10-12). Booking curves likewise average, by day of week, the estimated OCC for each stay date at T-45, T-30 and the night before. The YoY figure compares finalized estimated settled ADR values (October 2025 and October 2026).
■ Limitations and Caveats
Because estimated OCC is based on the sell-through of OTA-listed inventory, it reads higher than actual room occupancy. Monday and Sunday each have only 3 dates in scope, so a single day’s movement has a large effect on the average. Estimated OCC and estimated settled ADR cover different sets of properties, and since estimated settled ADR is a monthly metric it does not show rate differences by day of week. Estimated settled ADR for November 2026 onward is a mid-sale estimate and is not used in this article.
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