The same guest room can be either a room that has become 40% more expensive in seven years or a room that is cheaper than it was seven years ago, depending on the currency you look at it in. Comparing MetroEngines Research data on estimated settled ADR across five major areas (Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, Hokkaido and Okinawa) between July 2019 and July 2026, the figure is +38.3% in yen terms — but -7.9% in US dollars and -9.2% in Chinese yuan, both below pre-pandemic levels. Only the Korean won reading is higher, at +16.7%. This article quantifies that currency-by-currency gap using actual monthly average exchange rates.

+38% in Yen, -8% in Dollars — The Same Room Shows Opposite Faces by Currency

Start with the overall picture. The five-area average estimated settled ADR was ¥8,600 in July 2019 and ¥11,900 in July 2026. In yen that is +38.3% — roughly a 40% increase over seven years. On that number alone, there is no doubt that Japanese hotels have pushed price increases through.

Yet the picture reverses when the same two months are restated in the currencies inbound travelers actually pay in. In US dollars it moved from $79.4 to $73.2, or -7.9%, and in Chinese yuan from CNY 546 to CNY 496, or -9.2%. In Australian dollars it is -7.6% and in Taiwan dollars -4.6%. None of these reach the July 2019 level, because the yen’s decline has outpaced the size of the increases made in yen.

The one exception is the Korean won. From ₩93,451 to ₩109,073, or +16.7%, meaning that only for travelers from Korea are Japanese hotels “more expensive than seven years ago.” The reason is discussed below, but the won itself also weakened against the US dollar, so Korea has captured less of the weak-yen benefit than other markets.

Figure 1: Estimated settled ADR index for the five-area average (July 2019 = 100) — by currency

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team (covered properties: N=3,318 in July 2019 / N=3,847 in July 2026)

Figure 1 traces the index with July 2019 set to 100. The yen series (navy) accelerated from the second half of 2022 and peaked at 171.2 in November 2025. The dollar series (blue) sank to 60.3 in June 2022 and, even after recovering, stands at just 92.1 as of July 2026. A price that rose 70% in yen over seven years is still 8 points below its 2019 level in dollars.

The dollar index was above 100 only briefly, in the spring of 2025. The five-area average dollar index hit a high of 121.4 in April 2025, then gave that back to 92.1 in a little over a year as the yen weakened further. The sense overseas that “Japan has become expensive” did not last, because it was FX rather than pricing that pushed the level back down.

The Yen Fell 52% Against the Yuan and 50% Against the Dollar — but Only 19% Against the Won

The differences between currencies come down entirely to how far the yen fell against each one. Comparing monthly average rates for July 2019 and July 2026, the yen fell 52.4% against the Chinese yuan, 50.2% against the US dollar, 49.7% against the Australian dollar and 44.9% against the Taiwan dollar. Against the Korean won, the decline was just 18.5%.

Figure 2: Decline in the yen (July 2019 → July 2026, monthly average rates)

Source: European Central Bank (ECB) reference exchange rates and the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) closing interbank rate for NTD against USD; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

Source: European Central Bank (ECB) reference exchange rates and the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) closing interbank rate for NTD against USD; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

The won is the exception because the won itself fell against the US dollar. USD/KRW moved from a monthly average of ₩1,176.8 per dollar in July 2019 to ₩1,490.8 in July 2026 — a 21.1% weakening on the won side. Because both the yen and the won fell against the dollar, only an 18.5% decline remains in the yen-won cross. As a result, the Korean market alone absorbs close to the full extent of Japanese hotel rate increases.

This structure is hard to dismiss given that Korea is one of Japan’s largest inbound markets. According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), 3,148,600 international visitors arrived in June 2026 (-6.8% year on year), bringing the first-half total to 21,084,800, with 15 markets including Taiwan, Korea and the US posting record Junes. Even in markets where volume is growing, how price feels differs widely by market. Holiday demand in the Korean market is covered in our article on Chuseok and the second wave after Silver Week.

By Area, Tokyo Is the Only One Above 2019 in Dollar Terms

Looking at the five areas individually, every one exceeds its July 2019 level in yen terms, but only Tokyo clears 2019 in dollars.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team

Tokyo rose from ¥8,100 to ¥12,600, up 55.7% — the largest gain among the five areas — and edged above 2019 in dollars as well, from $75.0 to $77.8 (+3.7%). Hokkaido was +49.9% in yen and -0.2% in dollars, essentially flat. Kyoto (-16.4% in dollars), Osaka (-15.8%) and Okinawa (-9.7%) sit clearly below 2019 in dollar terms even though they raised yen rates by 20% to more than 30%.

Figure 3: Rate of change by area (yen / US dollar / Korean won)

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team (covered properties: N=3,318 in July 2019 / N=3,847 in July 2026)

Figure 3 shows how the sign flips by currency within the same area. Kyoto is +25.6% in yen against -16.4% in dollars — a 42-point spread. The smaller the yen increase in an area, the deeper the discount in foreign currency. Put the other way, only Tokyo and Hokkaido, which delivered yen increases above 50%, held their 2019 level on a foreign-currency basis.

Osaka Is Mid-Payback From the Expo — July 2026 Is Back at the Pre-Expo Level

Reading Osaka’s numbers requires separating out the payback from Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai. The Expo ran for 184 days, from April 13 to October 13, 2025, drawing 29.02 million cumulative visitors (25.58 million excluding AD-pass entries). Osaka’s estimated settled ADR was lifted substantially while it was open.

Figure 4: Monthly estimated settled ADR for Osaka (year overlay)

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team (Osaka covered properties: N=575 in July 2019 / N=647 in July 2026)

The April-October average during the Expo period was ¥13,100 in 2025 against ¥9,200 in the same months of 2024 — roughly 43% higher while the Expo was running. July 2026 came in at ¥8,800, down 30.7% from ¥12,600 a year earlier. Against July 2024, before the Expo, the gap is only -1.3%. In other words, Osaka’s “decline” is best read as normalization to the pre-Expo level.

Osaka’s -15.8% in dollars in Table 2 therefore combines the FX effect with the trough of the post-Expo payback. Even excluding Osaka, the four-area average dollar index for July 2026 is 93.7 — still below 2019 — so the conclusion that prices have become cheaper in foreign-currency terms holds with or without Osaka.

Tokyo’s Seasonality — Peaks in April and November, a Trough in June-July, and the Shape Has Not Changed

The seven-year comparison is July against July, so seasonality does not distort it. Still, it is worth noting that the impression changes depending on which month you take. Overlaying Tokyo’s monthly series by year shows price levels stepping up each year while the shape of the year stays almost constant.

Figure 5: Monthly estimated settled ADR for Tokyo (year overlay)

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team (Tokyo covered properties: N=998 in July 2019 / N=1,136 in July 2026)

Peaks in April and November with a trough from June into July have been consistent since 2023. April 2026 was ¥17,800, the yearly high, and June was ¥12,100, the yearly low — a 47% spread within a single year. July sits among the lowest months of the year, which makes a July-to-July comparison one taken at the most conservative point in the calendar.

Markets Where Price Is Not a Constraint, and Markets Where It Is Becoming One

Organizing the numbers so far from an operator’s perspective shows that the issues worth examining differ by market.

In the US dollar, Chinese yuan, Australian dollar and Taiwan dollar blocs, Japanese hotel prices sit roughly 5-9% below their 2019 level (from -4.6% in Taiwan dollars to -9.2% in Chinese yuan). For these travelers, price is unlikely to be what constrains a visit. Arrivals from China were roughly halved year on year in March 2026, but JNTO cites travel advisories and reduced flight capacity as the background, so that needs to be kept separate from price. In yuan terms Japanese hotels are 9.2% cheaper than in 2019, so the price hurdle is low whenever demand returns.

The Korean market is the one market where price has clearly become heavier in practice. It is +16.7% in won, and for Tokyo alone ₩88,307 to ₩115,987, or +31.3% — a gain of more than 30% in seven years. Given the short-haul, high-frequency, short-stay profile of Korean travel, higher rates tend to show up as shorter stays or a downward shift in property grade. This is where there is room for plan design that accounts for price elasticity.

The Japan Tourism Agency’s inbound consumption survey puts travel spending at ¥244,000 per person for the April-June 2026 quarter (+3.3% year on year), with lodging the largest expense category. Total lodging spend is growing, but whether that growth reflects higher rates or changes in nights and party size differs by market. The distance between consumption totals and ADR is set out in our article comparing April-June lodging spend with real-world ADR.

The other point worth holding onto is that this discount is produced by FX rather than by anything Japanese operators have done. The dollar index in Figure 1 climbed to 121.4 in April 2025 and returned to 92.1 in a little over a year. If the yen strengthens, foreign-currency prices rise without operators in Japan doing anything at all. The current foreign-currency discount is best treated as a temporary state tied to the FX regime, not as structural competitiveness. The effect of a USD/JPY level near 160 on the top of the rate spectrum is examined in our article on ultra-high-rate ryokan demand.

FX Sensitivity — Even With Yen Rates Held Flat, ¥130/USD Puts the Dollar Index Back Above 2019

This “it depends on FX” quality can be shown as a range by substituting the conversion mechanically. Holding the five-area average estimated settled ADR at its July 2026 level of ¥11,888 and moving only the exchange rate gives the following. The base is $79.4 in July 2019 (¥8,593 at ¥108.2098/USD), indexed to 100.

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team. Index = (yen ADR / yen per USD) / $79.4 x 100. Shaded cells are 100 or above (at or above the July 2019 level); the outlined cell is the July 2026 actual.

The 92.1 in the middle of the outlined area is the July 2026 actual. Even a 10% increase in yen ADR (to ¥13,100) reaches only 101.5 at ¥162.5/USD — barely back to the 2019 level. Conversely, holding yen rates flat while the rate returns to ¥130/USD lifts the index to 115.2. The size of that range is what shows the foreign-currency discount depends far more on FX than on pricing policy. Note that this table is a mechanical combination of yen ADR and FX levels; it is neither an FX forecast nor a price forecast, and it does not incorporate demand-side responses such as changes in length of stay or property grade.

Methodology and Caveats

The estimated settled ADR in this article is calculated from those properties, among roughly 168,000 domestic properties tracked by MetroEngines Research, whose activity can be confirmed on OTAs and other booking sites. Covered properties total 3,318 across the five areas in July 2019 and 3,847 in July 2026. Area-level values are the median of each property’s daily average price, not a simple mean.

Across the 85 months from July 2019 to July 2026, none of the five areas showed missing months or extreme drops in covered property counts (the minimum monthly count for each area is at least 85% of its median). All months are settled past months; no estimates based on forward listed prices are included.

The “yen decline” used here is calculated as the rate of increase in the yen price of one unit of foreign currency (how many percent more yen are needed to obtain the same amount of foreign currency). Note that this differs in definition from the loss in the yen’s own value as seen from the foreign currency (33.4% against the US dollar). All FX conversion uses monthly average rates. Because the rates travelers actually receive when exchanging money or paying include fees, the discount or premium they perceive will not match the figures here. This article also covers room rates only; it is not a comparison of total trip cost including airfare and on-the-ground spending. The area average is an equally weighted simple average of the five areas with no weighting by lodging demand volume, so it differs from a national average for Japan.

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