Comparing the September 2026 settled ADR estimate (finalized) for Miyagi’s city hotels and business hotels against the finalized figure for September of last year, city hotels came in at ¥11,236 (N=21 properties), up +28.9% from ¥8,720 a year earlier (N=20), while business hotels reached ¥8,548 (N=142), up +17.3% from ¥7,288 (N=140). Both categories posted double-digit growth. Given that August’s year-over-year gains were City +7.7% and Business +6.5%, September marks a clear step up in the growth rate for both. However, this acceleration includes a “base effect”: last September’s level had dropped sharply from August. Carrying the +28.9% figure straight into October-November pricing risks misreading the market. This article lines up finalized-month YoY comparisons from January through September, decomposes the acceleration in terms of both seasonal shape and occupancy, and then sets out how to treat the October-December levels currently available only as provisional estimates.

Scope: Miyagi Prefecture city hotels N=21 properties and business hotels N=142 properties (as of September 2026, the settled ADR estimate sample). The price metric in this article is the settled ADR estimate (the realized price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-exclusive equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of: October 30, 2026.

Finalized September YoY — City +28.9%, Business +17.3%; January-September Average +12.0% and +10.3%

First, let us line up finalized-to-finalized YoY comparisons from January through September to see how “abnormal” the September figure really is. As the table below shows, the settled ADR estimate for city hotels grew at or near double digits through 2026 — February +9.0%, March +11.9%, April +11.2%, May +15.3% — then fell below last year in June (−3.7%) and July (−11.5%), recovered to +7.7% in August, and reached +28.9% in September. Business hotels, excluding January’s +24.4%, held relatively steady growth: +7.7% to +11.2% from February to May, +1.7% in June, +8.5% in July and +6.5% in August, before widening to +17.3% in September. On a simple January-September average, city hotels were ¥9,878 versus ¥8,816 a year earlier (+12.0%), and business hotels ¥7,769 versus ¥7,043 (+10.3%). The full-year trend for both categories therefore sits in the “low-teens percent” range.

Settled ADR estimate (tax-exclusive equivalent; finalized vs. finalized). Figures in parentheses are the number of properties covered. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

One caveat: the city hotel sample is limited to 20-21 properties. Because the series is built on area medians, it is designed to resist being pulled by a single extreme property, but at this sample size, rate changes or shifts in sales mix at a handful of properties can still show up in the aggregate. Swings such as January’s +49.1% or July’s −11.5% are best read as reflecting that characteristic. Business hotels, at around N=140, show little month-to-month noise, so September’s +17.3% can be treated straightforwardly as a genuinely “high month” in the series. The July episode in which city and business hotels moved in opposite directions, and the order in which rates should be reviewed in that situation, is covered in detail in Miyagi Settled ADR: City −11.5% vs Business +8.5% in July 2026.

Miyagi city hotels: settled ADR estimate (tax-exclusive equivalent), year-over-year overlay. Solid line = finalized; dotted line = provisional estimate based on current sales (subject to change). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Miyagi business hotels: settled ADR estimate (tax-exclusive equivalent), year-over-year overlay. Solid line = finalized; dotted line = provisional estimate based on current sales (subject to change). Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

What Drove the Acceleration — Last September’s Trough Meets a September That Held Up This Year

The jump from +7.7% in August to +28.9% in September is explained by comparing the August-to-September shape in the year-over-year overlay charts. In 2025, city hotels followed a seasonal pattern that fell 13.8%, from ¥10,120 in August to ¥8,720 in September. In 2026, by contrast, they rose 3.1%, from ¥10,903 to ¥11,236, with the summer peak extending right through September. Business hotels show the same pattern: in 2025 they fell 10.2%, from ¥8,116 to ¥7,288, while in 2026 they held roughly flat, from ¥8,642 to ¥8,548 (−1.1%). Had this September traced the same seasonal shape as last year (a drop of a little over 10% from August), September’s YoY would have stayed at August’s +7.7% and +6.5%. The entire widening of September’s YoY relative to August can thus be explained by a difference in shape: “the month that fell last year did not fall this year.”

The underlying cause is the calendar. In September 2026, a five-day holiday ran from Saturday the 19th to Wednesday the 23rd (Autumnal Equinox Day), spanning Monday the 21st (Respect for the Aged Day) and Tuesday the 22nd (a national holiday). In September 2025, by contrast, Respect for the Aged Day fell on Monday the 15th and the Autumnal Equinox on Tuesday the 23rd, so the longest holiday was only three days. A five-day holiday concentrates leisure demand into a single peak and increases the number of days priced at weekend rates, which tends to lift the monthly average realized rate. Indeed, as shown later, estimated OCC for city hotels reached the 99% range on the 19th-21st.

In sum, September’s +28.9% and +17.3% reflect a double effect of “last year’s trough” and “this year’s holiday demand”; Miyagi’s underlying pricing strength did not suddenly intensify in September. The full-year trend is closer to the January-September averages of +12.0% and +10.3%, and these are the more realistic yardsticks for evaluating YoY from October onward.

Rate and Occupancy Rose Together in September — The Shape of Estimated OCC (OTA-Listed Inventory Basis)

To check whether rate growth came at the cost of lost demand, let us look at estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis) for the same September. Miyagi city hotels (10 properties, 1,047 rooms, based on major booking sites, 26 days observed) averaged 90.3% in September, and business hotels (60 properties, 8,658 rooms, 30 days observed) averaged 91.6% — both in the 90% range. Day by day, city hotels hit 99.5% on Sunday September 20, 99.4% on Saturday the 19th and 99.0% on Monday the 21st (holiday), meaning the first three days of the five-day holiday were effectively sold out, while the final day, Wednesday the 23rd (holiday), dropped to 82.5%, close to the monthly low. Business hotels stood out for high-occupancy weekdays, led by 98.3% on Wednesday the 9th; during the holiday they were also high at 95.9% on the 19th, 97.2% on the 20th and 96.3% on the 21st, but fell to 77.2% on the 23rd. How these five nights filled from 45 days out is tracked in Miyagi Sept Holiday: First 3 Nights 99% at T-14, Last 2 Gain 15pt+, which contrasts the booking patterns of the first three nights and the last two.

Averaged by day of week, city hotels came in at 89.6% Monday-Thursday (17 days), 98.8% on Saturdays (2 days) and 87.6% on Sundays (4 days); business hotels at 92.3% Monday-Thursday (18 days), 93.8% on Saturdays (4 days) and 86.4% on Sundays (4 days). City hotel demand concentrated on Saturdays, while business hotels showed little gap between weekdays and Saturdays — in other words, business hotels in September were filled by both leisure and business travel. With rates up by double digits YoY while listed-inventory occupancy held in the 90% range, September’s price level was not too high for demand; if anything, there may have been room to test higher price points on the peak holiday days. (The gap between Thursdays and Sundays for business hotels, and the Sunday level excluding the holiday, are examined in depth in Miyagi Business Hotels Sep: Thu 95.2%, Sun 86.4% — 82.8% Ex-Holiday.)

Note: The number of properties covered by estimated OCC (10 city, 60 business) is smaller than the settled ADR estimate sample (21 and 142). Estimated OCC uses a fixed cohort of properties listing at least 30% of their total rooms on major booking sites, so the two metrics are based on different populations.

November Saturday Booking Pace — Read the Booking Curve as Pickup from 45 Days Out

So how should hotels position for October-November? Starting with demand, we look at booking curves from 45 days before arrival to the latest observation for four November Saturdays (the 7th, 14th, 21st and 28th). For business hotels (62-63 properties, 9,040-9,160 rooms), Saturday November 14 stood at 66.9% at 45 days out, 75.8% at 30 days out and 86.7% at the latest reading (16 days out), a pickup of +19.8pt from 45 days out. Saturday November 21 is the first day of a three-day weekend (the 21st-23rd; the 23rd is Labor Thanksgiving Day) and was already at 88.7% at 45 days out, 92.5% at 30 days out and 95.8% at the latest reading (23 days out) — high from an early stage. Saturday November 28 went from 69.6% at 45 days out to 77.8% at 30 days out (+8.2pt), building at the same slope as the 14th. Saturday November 7 was already nearly sold out when observation began at 45 days out (business 99.0%, city 99.6%) and thereafter moved only within the range of listing adjustments, so it is excluded from the pickup comparison.

Estimated OCC (OTA-listed inventory basis, based on major booking sites). Observed from 45 days before arrival to the latest reading. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

Miyagi business hotels: booking curves for Saturdays November 14, 21 and 28 (62-63 properties, 9,040-9,160 rooms). X-axis = days remaining until the stay date. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

City hotels were already at 88% to the 99% range at 45 days out on all four dates, with small pickups of +2.6 to +8.7pt. Business hotels, on the other hand, varied widely at 45 days out (67-89% depending on the date) and then picked up +7 to +20pt by the latest reading. In other words, November Saturdays in Miyagi are structured so that city hotels fill early, while business hotels are completed by short-lead demand from 30 days out to arrival — which means the point at which rate increases should be decided differs by category.

Provisional October-December Estimates — Treat Them as a Separate Yardstick from Finalized Figures

On the pricing side, October-December settled ADR figures are available as “provisional estimates based on current sales.” City hotels stand at ¥13,792 for October, ¥13,311 for November and ¥12,200 for December (all N=21); business hotels at ¥11,140 for October (N=136), ¥10,692 for November (N=136) and ¥10,141 for December (N=137). However, these use a different basis from finalized figures (which are based on historical sales results): they are listing-snapshot estimates reflecting the price level of inventory currently on sale. It is therefore not appropriate to calculate YoY by setting them against last year’s finalized figures — City ¥9,342 (October), ¥9,955 (November), ¥8,902 (December); Business ¥7,130, ¥8,148, ¥6,873. A like-for-like comparison with finalized figures must wait until each month is finalized.

Settled ADR estimate (tax-exclusive equivalent). October-December 2026 are provisional estimates based on current sales and will change as sales progress. A like-for-like comparison with finalized figures must wait until month-end finalization. Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team

The value of provisional estimates lies not in measuring YoY but in understanding “where the price band currently being sold in the market sits.” Use them as a yardstick to check where your own October-December rates sit relative to the current selling bands — around ¥13,000 for city hotels and ¥10,000-¥11,000 for business hotels — and re-evaluate YoY once finalized figures are in. Keeping these two uses separate is the crux of revenue management decisions for October-November. Last October was even lower than September (City ¥9,342, Business ¥7,130), so October’s finalized YoY is also likely to come out large, as September’s did — but that, too, should be read as a number reflecting last year’s trough.

For Revenue Managers at City and Business Hotels in Miyagi — Implications and Action Plan

The action plan is an illustrative example based on the figures aggregated in this article and does not guarantee results.

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading YoY

Miyagi’s finalized September showed large headline YoY gains — City ¥11,236 (+28.9%) and Business ¥8,548 (+17.3%) — but these break down into “a trough where last September fell a little over 10% from August” and “a September this year that held up thanks to the five-day holiday.” The full-year trend is closer to the January-September averages of +12.0% and +10.3%. We offer three reusable yardsticks. First, when a single month’s YoY departs sharply from adjacent months, check last year’s seasonal shape for the same period (the August-to-September drop) first. Second, read rate YoY together with estimated OCC for the same month; when occupancy holds in the 90% range, as in September, the rate increase can be judged as supported by demand. Third, do not use current- and future-month settled ADR estimates as material for YoY; limit them to measuring your relative position against the selling band, and wait for finalized figures to evaluate YoY. With these three in hand, you will be able to read the market from October onward without being dragged by last year’s trough.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Is September’s +28.9% YoY proof that Miyagi pricing suddenly strengthened?
A. Not necessarily. Last September’s finalized figure of ¥8,720 was 13.8% below August’s ¥10,120, so simply holding at August levels this September produces a large YoY. The January-September average of +12.0% is the more appropriate measure of the underlying trend.

Q. What YoY change do the October-November settled ADR estimates (e.g., City ¥13,792 and ¥13,311) represent?
A. Provisional estimates use a different basis from finalized figures, so YoY against last year’s finalized figures has not been calculated. Use them as a guide to the current selling price band, and evaluate YoY after month-end finalization.

Q. Why does estimated OCC cover fewer properties than the settled ADR estimate?
A. Estimated OCC is defined using a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on major booking sites, so its population differs from the settled ADR estimate sample. The two are read together, but their property counts do not match.

About the Data

Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team