For city hotels in Gunma, the settled ADR estimate (final value) for July 2026 came to ¥8,350 (N=13 properties), down 20.7% from the prior-year final value of ¥10,535 (N=11 properties). The decline widened from -9.0% YoY in June, and the August final value of ¥10,262 (N=13 properties) was also down 10.9% YoY, so the summer peak months stayed in negative territory. Business hotels in the same prefecture held up: ¥6,464 in July (N=100 properties, +2.0% YoY) and ¥7,081 in August (N=101 properties, +5.2%). The July price gap between city and business hotels narrowed from about ¥4,200 a year earlier to about ¥1,900.
To strip out changes in the sample, we compared only the same 11 city hotels that have final values for both July 2025 and July 2026. Their median fell 23.0%, from ¥10,535 to ¥8,117. None of the four properties that sold in the low-¥10,000s band (¥10,000-14,999) last year remained in that band this year, and three of them moved down to the ¥8,000-9,999 band. This article breaks down this “month when the high-rate band thinned out” with data, and sets out what revenue managers running city hotels in Gunma should protect along three dimensions: in-house spend per guest, length of stay, and segment mix.
Scope: Gunma city hotels N=13 properties (July 2026, settled ADR estimate); Gunma business hotels N=100 properties (same). Price metrics in this article are settled ADR estimates (the achieved-price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent); occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory. Definitions are at the end of the article. Data as of September 26, 2026.
- — -20.7% YoY: the July 2026 settled ADR estimate (final) for Gunma city hotels was ¥8,350 (N=13 properties), down from ¥10,535 a year earlier. August was also down 10.9%.
- — Median -23.0% even for the same 11 properties: the ¥10,000-14,999 band went from 4 properties to 0. The drop cannot be explained by changes in the sample.
- — 5th-largest decline among 47 prefectures: the national average for city hotels was -9.7% (N=1,117 properties). The 22.7pt gap versus business hotels YoY is the second largest after Okayama.
- — Business hotels +2.0% (¥6,464, N=100 properties). The July gap with city hotels narrowed from ¥4,198 to ¥1,886 (1.66x to 1.29x).
- — Occupancy alone cannot close the gap: getting back to last year’s room revenue at the July 2026 rate would require 89.2% occupancy (estimate at July 2026 levels), above even the Saturday average of 85.4%.
City hotel settled ADR: flat through spring, below last year in the peak months from May
We start by overlaying the monthly settled ADR estimate for Gunma city hotels year by year. YoY changes are calculated only for months where both years have final values (past months).
From January to April 2026 the rate stayed within ¥8,063-¥8,795, with YoY changes of -4.1% to +0.9%, essentially flat. The change came from May: ¥8,907 in May (-14.2% YoY), ¥8,612 in June (-9.0%), ¥8,350 in July (-20.7%) and ¥10,262 in August (-10.9%). In 2025 a seasonal peak built up toward summer: May (¥10,382), July (¥10,535) and August (¥11,519). In 2026 that peak was lower, and July even fell below July 2024, two years earlier (¥9,833, N=11 properties). In other words, prices did not fall uniformly across the year; the gap versus last year was largest in exactly the months that should sell at the highest rates.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
September onward are months that have not yet closed. Current estimates based on sales to date (N=13 properties) are ¥10,716 for September, ¥10,504 for October, ¥11,907 for November and ¥10,403 for December. These figures may change as sales progress, so we will wait for month-end finalization before comparing them directly with last year’s final values. The chart separates them with a dotted line.
Business hotels beat last year every month, narrowing the gap with city hotels
Over the same period, business hotels exceeded the prior-year final value in every month from January to August 2026. YoY changes ranged from +1.1% (April) to +10.3% (February), and July was +2.0%. They stayed positive even in May-August, when city hotels fell well below last year. The table sets the final values for both categories side by side.
| Stay month | City 2025 | City 2026 | YoY | Business 2025 | Business 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | ¥8,409 (N=11) | ¥8,063 (N=12) | -4.1% | ¥6,096 (N=96) | ¥6,512 (N=103) | +6.8% |
| Feb | ¥8,642 (N=11) | ¥8,683 (N=12) | +0.5% | ¥5,907 (N=96) | ¥6,518 (N=103) | +10.3% |
| Mar | ¥8,787 (N=11) | ¥8,672 (N=12) | -1.3% | ¥6,171 (N=98) | ¥6,520 (N=104) | +5.7% |
| Apr | ¥8,716 (N=11) | ¥8,795 (N=12) | +0.9% | ¥6,322 (N=98) | ¥6,393 (N=103) | +1.1% |
| May | ¥10,382 (N=11) | ¥8,907 (N=12) | -14.2% | ¥6,388 (N=98) | ¥6,719 (N=103) | +5.2% |
| Jun | ¥9,468 (N=11) | ¥8,612 (N=13) | -9.0% | ¥6,052 (N=98) | ¥6,227 (N=103) | +2.9% |
| Jul | ¥10,535 (N=11) | ¥8,350 (N=13) | -20.7% | ¥6,337 (N=98) | ¥6,464 (N=100) | +2.0% |
| Aug | ¥11,519 (N=11) | ¥10,262 (N=13) | -10.9% | ¥6,732 (N=96) | ¥7,081 (N=101) | +5.2% |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Looking at the price gap between the two categories in July: in 2025 city hotels were at ¥10,535 versus ¥6,337 for business hotels, a gap of ¥4,198 (city hotels at about 1.66x business hotels). In 2026 city hotels were at ¥8,350 and business hotels at ¥6,464, a gap of ¥1,886, or about 1.29x. From the guest’s point of view, the price difference between city and business hotels more than halved in a year. Put differently, the part of the reason to stay at a city hotel in summer that could be explained by price difference has shrunk.
Nationally and in neighboring prefectures: Gunma’s decline is 5th largest of 47 prefectures
To check whether July’s city hotel price decline was unique to Gunma, we lined up the settled ADR estimate (final) on the same definition across all 47 prefectures. In July 2026, city hotel settled ADR fell below last year in 34 of the 47 prefectures, and the national average weighted by property count fell 9.7%, from ¥13,907 to ¥12,559. Weak summer city hotel rates were a nationwide trend. Within that, Gunma’s -20.7% was the 5th-largest decline after Yamaguchi (-27.6%), Osaka (-25.1%), Okayama (-23.3%) and Nara (-21.4%), more than double the national average. Kyoto was also down 16.8% in July.
| Prefecture | City Jul 2025 | City Jul 2026 | City YoY | Business YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunma | ¥10,535 (N=11) | ¥8,350 (N=13) | -20.7% | +2.0% |
| Saitama | ¥10,229 (N=13) | ¥8,356 (N=12) | -18.3% | -3.9% |
| Tochigi | ¥7,688 (N=14) | ¥6,786 (N=15) | -11.7% | +1.5% |
| Ibaraki | ¥9,160 (N=18) | ¥8,586 (N=17) | -6.3% | -0.1% |
| Niigata | ¥8,444 (N=18) | ¥7,993 (N=18) | -5.3% | -1.1% |
| Nagano | ¥10,794 (N=16) | ¥10,564 (N=16) | -2.1% | +5.6% |
| National (47 prefectures, property-weighted) | ¥13,907 (N=1,096) | ¥12,559 (N=1,117) | -9.7% | -3.7% |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The other distinctive feature is the gap versus business hotels. In Gunma, city hotels were -20.7% and business hotels +2.0%, a YoY difference of 22.7pt. That is the second largest among the 47 prefectures after Okayama (23.0pt). Nationally, business hotels also fell 3.7%, yet Gunma’s business hotels beat last year. Six prefectures saw city hotels fall 10% or more while business hotels rose: Gunma, Tochigi, Miyagi, Nagasaki, Oita and Tottori. In Gunma, this reads less as an overall drop in lodging demand in the prefecture and more as a month in which only the city hotel price tier came down. Among neighboring prefectures, Saitama (-18.3%) posted a decline close to Gunma’s, while Nagano (-2.1%) and Niigata (-5.3%) saw only modest declines.
The decline remains even after removing sample changes: the low-¥10,000s band emptied out
The city hotel sample grew from N=11 properties in July 2025 to N=13 properties in July 2026. Depending on the price tier of newly added properties, the median can move from composition changes alone. So we isolated the same 11 properties that have final values for both July 2025 and July 2026 and compared them.
| Settled ADR estimate band | Jul 2025 (properties) | Jul 2026 (properties) | Aug 2025 (properties) | Aug 2026 (properties) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥8,000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| ¥8,000-9,999 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| ¥10,000-14,999 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| ¥15,000 and above | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Median | ¥10,535 | ¥8,117 | ¥11,519 | ¥9,898 |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
Even for the same 11 properties, the July median fell 23.0%, from ¥10,535 to ¥8,117. The median of property-level YoY changes was -11.4%, and 7 of the 11 properties were below last year. Meanwhile, the two properties that joined the sample from July 2026 were both in the ¥10,000s and did not pull the overall median down. This decline reads not as a result of composition changes but as a fall in the price level of properties that were already in the sample.
The change showed up clearly in the distribution across price bands. None of the four properties that sold at ¥10,000-14,999 in July 2025 remained in that band in July 2026, and the ¥8,000-9,999 band grew from 1 property to 5. The number of properties at ¥15,000 and above (2) and under ¥8,000 (4) was unchanged. At the property level, however, three of the four that were in the low-¥10,000s moved down to ¥8,000-9,999 and the remaining one moved up to ¥15,000 and above. One of the two properties at ¥15,000 and above dropped below ¥8,000, so even in bands where the count did not change, the membership turned over. In August, the number of properties at ¥10,000 and above fell only from 6 to 5, and the YoY change in the median for the same 11 properties was -14.1%, a smaller decline than in July.
On the occupancy side: July’s peak day kept building right up to arrival, reaching 97.9% the day before
How did occupancy behave in July, when the price peak was lower? The July 2026 monthly average estimated OCC (based on OTA-listed inventory) was 70.7% for city hotels (N=10 properties, 964 rooms) and 82.3% for business hotels (N=44-49 properties, 4,179-4,618 rooms). The highest day for city hotels was Saturday, July 18, the first day of the three-day weekend, at 97.9%, followed by Saturday, July 11, at 90.9%. Note that we do not make a YoY comparison of estimated OCC from the same data source.
The booking curve for Saturday, July 18 shows city hotels at 54.4% 45 days out, 64.1% 30 days out and 97.9% the day before, adding 33.8pt from 30 days out to arrival. Business hotels (N=47 properties, 4,590 rooms) were at 59.8% 45 days out, 66.5% 30 days out and 95.4% the day before, adding 28.9pt after 30 days out. City hotels started more slowly, with a curve in which bookings concentrated close to arrival.
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
| Jul 2026 estimated OCC | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Monthly avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City (N=10 properties, 964 rooms) | 64.0% | 72.4% | 68.6% | 72.9% | 71.7% | 85.4% | 63.6% | 70.7% |
| Business (N=44-49 properties) | 77.1% | 85.2% | 85.2% | 86.3% | 79.3% | 88.0% | 74.2% | 82.3% |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
By day of week, city hotels’ Saturday average of 85.4% stood out, with Sunday at 63.6% and Monday at 64.0%. Business hotels were stable in the 85-86% range from Tuesday to Thursday. In July, city hotels reached high occupancy on weekends and peak days as bookings built right up to arrival, but the achieved price level was well below last year. Even on days when occupancy was captured, they could not build a rate peak; that is the picture of July. The idea of filling low Sunday occupancy with multi-night stays is a useful lens for this gap.
Let us also check current pacing for October. On Saturday, October 10, the first day of the three-day weekend that includes Sports Day (Monday, October 12), estimated OCC for city hotels had already reached 96.6% at 15 days out. Weekdays are far behind: Wednesday, October 14 was at 46.1% and Wednesday, October 21 at 57.7%, leaving a wide weekend-weekday gap.
| Stay date | Category (properties) | 45 days out | 30 days out | Latest observation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct 10 (first day of 3-day weekend) | City (N=10) | 87.8% | 96.4% | 96.6% (15 days out) |
| Business (N=51) | 72.7% | 75.3% | 87.3% (15 days out) | |
| Wed, Oct 14 | City (N=10) | 42.6% | 47.0% | 46.1% (19 days out) |
| Business (N=51) | 50.0% | 55.3% | 62.7% (19 days out) | |
| Sat, Oct 17 | City (N=10) | 63.9% | 79.6% | 83.8% (22 days out) |
| Business (N=50) | 67.5% | 73.8% | 78.0% (22 days out) | |
| Wed, Oct 21 | City (N=10) | 55.6% | 56.2% | 57.7% (26 days out) |
| Business (N=50) | 53.3% | 61.0% | 63.7% (26 days out) |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
City hotels’ 964 rooms are a small base compared with roughly 4,600-4,700 rooms for business hotels, so peak days fill quickly. In July, the month ended without rates being pushed up enough on those peak days. Days like October 10 that fill early should be treated not as days to wait for last-minute pickup but as days to decide whether to revise the conditions on the remaining rooms. Last-minute pickup for ryokan and resorts in Gunma can be seen in our analysis of Gunma ryokan and resort booking curves for early September.
For revenue managers running city hotels in Gunma: what to protect in a month when the high-rate band thins out
Operational insights
1. The decline happened in the low-¥10,000s band. For the same 11 properties in July, the ¥10,000-14,999 band went from 4 properties to 0, and three of them moved to the ¥8,000-9,999 band. Checking which band your own July final rate fell into lets you separate whether your price moved with the market-wide decline or was set by your own decision.
2. The price gap with business hotels narrowed. The July gap went from ¥4,198 to ¥1,886. It has become harder to show a “reason to stay at a city hotel” through room rate alone. There is room to differentiate through value beyond the room, such as food and beverage, parking and early check-in.
3. Peak days filled, but no rate peak was built. July 18 reached 97.9% the day before arrival, yet the rate for the month as a whole was 20.7% below last year. It is worth reviewing whether rates and conditions were raised on days that fill.
4. Weekday and Sunday occupancy is low. In July, Sunday was 63.6% and Monday 64.0%, versus 85.4% on Saturday. If vacancies on low-occupancy days can be filled with multi-night guests or other segments, there is room to make up revenue without cutting rates.
In a month when the high-rate band thins out, what is worth protecting is less the room rate figure itself than the content of revenue per booking. This article organizes it into three points. In-house spend: whether F&B and ancillary services are making up for the lower room rate. Length of stay: whether peak Saturdays are sold not only as single nights but combined with low-occupancy Sundays. Segment mix: whether you are avoiding greater dependence on individual guests who compare you with business hotels on price, and maintaining the share of segments less driven by price gaps alone, such as corporate, groups and stays with banquets.
Estimate: how much of the rate decline can occupancy and in-house spend recover?
We estimate at July 2026 levels. Assuming occupancy stays at this July’s monthly average of 70.7%, room revenue per available room would be ¥7,448 at last year’s rate of ¥10,535 and ¥5,903 at this year’s ¥8,350, a gap of 20.7%. Closing that gap through occupancy alone at a rate of ¥8,350 would require 89.2% occupancy (estimate at July 2026 levels), above even July’s Saturday average of 85.4%. Because there is a limit to what occupancy can recover, a realistic target is a combination such as adding ¥2,185 per room (¥10,535 – ¥8,350) in in-house spend at the same occupancy, or bringing the rate back to ¥9,500 and capturing 78.4% occupancy (also an estimate at July 2026 levels).
| Settled ADR estimate / Occupancy | 65% | 70.7% | 75% | 80% | 85% | Occupancy needed to match last year (¥7,448) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ¥8,350 (July 2026 actual) | ¥5,428 | ¥5,903 | ¥6,262 | ¥6,680 | ¥7,098 | 89.2% |
| ¥9,000 | ¥5,850 | ¥6,363 | ¥6,750 | ¥7,200 | ¥7,650 | 82.8% |
| ¥9,500 | ¥6,175 | ¥6,716 | ¥7,125 | ¥7,600 | ¥8,075 | 78.4% |
| ¥10,535 (July 2025 actual) | ¥6,848 | ¥7,448 | ¥7,901 | ¥8,428 | ¥8,955 | 70.7% |
Bold cells are at or above last year’s level (¥10,535 x 70.7% = ¥7,448). This is a guide combining the market-average rate (settled ADR estimate, N=13 properties) and occupancy (estimated OCC, N=10 properties), not the results of any individual property.
| Timing | Action | Trigger | Aim |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week | Map your own July and August final rates onto the market price-band distribution (¥8,000-9,999 / ¥10,000-14,999) | If your July rate was in the band around the market settled ADR estimate of ¥8,350 | Separate price cuts that followed the market from your own decisions |
| This week | For remaining rooms on Saturday, October 10, review minimum length of stay, restriction to breakfast-included plans and cancellation terms | If market estimated OCC stays nearly full, as at 96.6% at 15 days out | Secure rate and revenue per booking on peak days |
| Within 2 weeks | Consider multi-night plans combining Saturday and Sunday, and length-of-stay conditions that add perks to Sunday nights | If your own property shows the same gap as July’s day-of-week estimated OCC (Sunday 63.6%, Monday 64.0% vs Saturday 85.4%) | Fill low-occupancy days without cutting rates |
| Within 2 weeks | Review pricing for plans that bundle ancillary services such as F&B, parking and late check-out | If room-only plans are the core of revenue while the gap with business hotels has narrowed to around July’s ¥1,886 | Show differentiation beyond room rate and build in-house spend |
| Toward next month | Check corporate, group and banquet-stay inquiries for November-December, and decide the allocation versus inventory for individual guests | If your booking pace for individual guests is behind versus the current November estimate of ¥11,907 (N=13 properties) | Reduce dependence on individual guests, who are prone to price competition |
| Toward next month | Design early how to build the seasonal peak for next year’s May-August peak months (price tables for event days and holidays) | Given that May-August 2026 were months at -9.0% to -20.7% YoY | Decide in advance the dates on which to defend the high-rate band |
In every case, the effect will vary with the property’s location, room mix and guest mix. We recommend using the market figures as a benchmark against which to hold up your own numbers, and making decisions only after cross-checking them with your own booking data.
Summary: three yardsticks for reading a month when the high-rate band is thin
In July 2026, the final settled ADR estimate for Gunma city hotels was ¥8,350 (N=13 properties), down 20.7% YoY. Even for the same 11 properties the median was down 23.0%, so the decline cannot be explained by changes in the sample. Business hotels beat last year by 2.0% in the same month, and the price gap between the two categories narrowed. Based on this data, we propose the following three yardsticks to check regularly.
| Yardstick | What to look at | July 2026 value |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Band depth | Number of like-for-like properties remaining in the ¥10,000-14,999 band | 4 properties to 0 (N=11) |
| 2. Gap between categories | Gap and ratio between city and business hotel settled ADR estimates | ¥1,886, about 1.29x (last year ¥4,198, about 1.66x) |
| 3. Peak-day pickup | Estimated OCC added from 30 days out to arrival | Sat, Jul 18, city +33.8pt |
Source: MetroEngines Research; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team
The lower the room rate peak in a month, the more revenue differences come down to whether you have protected the “content of each booking”: in-house spend, length of stay and segment mix. Once final values for September onward are in, it is worth checking these three yardsticks again.
About the data
| Item | Description |
|---|---|
| Estimated OCC | Occupancy based on OTA-listed inventory = 100 – 100 x OTA-listed remaining rooms / total rooms. Covers a fixed cohort of properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on OTAs (the same set of properties for each stay date). It is an estimate based on the take-up of inventory sold on OTAs and is defined differently from actual room occupancy (it runs higher because unlisted rooms are counted as taken). |
| Booking curve | Based on observations from 45 days before the stay date to the most recent date. |
| Settled ADR estimate | The achieved-price level (tax-excluded equivalent) estimated from OTA and other sales data (lowest-plan level x category-specific factor, ensemble across multiple channels). Past months are final values; current and future months are estimates based on sales to date. Median error of 6.6% against published operating results. |
| Sample N | Settled ADR estimate: Gunma city hotels N=11 (January 2024-September 2025), N=12 (October 2025-May 2026), N=13 (June-December 2026). Gunma business hotels N=96-104 (January 2025-August 2026, shown by month in the tables). Like-for-like comparison: 11 city hotels with final values for July (August) in both 2025 and 2026. Estimated OCC: city hotels N=10 properties, 964 rooms; business hotels N=44-51 properties, 4,179-4,707 rooms (varies by stay date, based on listings on major booking sites). |
| Data as of | September 26, 2026. Because sales and inventory change daily, the figures in this article are a snapshot as of the retrieval date. |
References and Sources
■ Data sources
Aggregated data from MetroEngines Research (compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team, as of September 26, 2026). Settled ADR estimate: Gunma city hotels N=11-13 properties, Gunma business hotels N=96-104 properties (final values for January 2025-August 2026; September-December are estimates). National comparison covers city hotels (July 2026, N=1,117 properties) and business hotels (same, N=7,398 properties) across 47 prefectures. Estimated OCC and booking curves: Gunma city hotels N=10 properties, 964 rooms; business hotels N=44-51 properties.
■ Estimate assumptions
Room revenue estimates are “settled ADR estimate x occupancy” (per available room, tax-excluded equivalent). The prior-year benchmark is the July 2025 settled ADR estimate of ¥10,535 x the July 2026 monthly average estimated OCC of 70.7% = ¥7,448. The national average is the settled ADR estimate of the 47 prefectures weighted by each prefecture’s number of sample properties. Price-band distributions and property-level YoY changes are calculated for the same 11 properties with final values for July (August) in both 2025 and 2026.
■ Limitations and caveats
The settled ADR estimate and estimated OCC cover different sets of properties (N=13 and N=10), so the estimate table is a market guide and does not show the earnings of any individual property. Estimated OCC is based on OTA-listed inventory and runs higher than actual room occupancy. We do not make a YoY comparison of estimated OCC from the same data source. With only 11-13 city hotels, a single property’s price change can move the median significantly. Values from September onward are estimates while sales are in progress and may change when finalized.
■ Market data
- MetroEngines Research (settled ADR estimate, estimated OCC, booking curves; compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team, as of September 26, 2026)
- Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, “National Holidays” (Marine Day, July 20, 2026; Sports Day, October 12, 2026) https://www8.cao.go.jp/chosei/shukujitsu/gaiyou.html