Checking the booking curves of accommodation in Hakone Town (箱根町) as of November 11, 2026, the Saturdays in the first two weeks after the autumn foliage season had already built up to an estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis) of 95.2% for November 28 at 18 days out (N=164 properties, 4,442 rooms) and 91.4% for December 5 at 25 days out (N=161 properties, 4,383 rooms). The Sundays of the same weeks, by contrast, stood at only 85.3% for November 29 and 79.0% for December 6, and the gap to Saturday widened week by week, from 9.9pt to 12.4pt. Friday December 4 was at 84.1%, 7.3pt below Saturday. This article uses the booking curves to identify when the gap between post-foliage Saturdays and their neighboring Fridays and Sundays opens up, and lays out for Hakone operators what to check 30 days (T-30) and 14 days (T-14) before the stay date.

Scope: all properties in Hakone Town, Kanagawa, N=154–171 properties / 4,359–4,556 rooms (based on listings on major booking sites; varies by stay date). The price metric in this article is the estimated settled ADR (the settled price level estimated from OTA and other sales data, tax-excluded equivalent), and occupancy is an estimate based on OTA listed inventory. Both are defined at the end of the article. Data as of: November 11, 2026 (latest curve observation: November 10).

Four Saturday Booking Curves — The 45-Day Starting Point Drops Each Week

First, lining up only the Saturdays shows how they relate from the foliage peak through mid-December. Hakone’s autumn colors begin around Lake Ashi (芦ノ湖) at higher elevation; peak viewing is typically late October to early November at Lake Ashi and mid-November in Gora (強羅) (Walkerplus, “Autumn Foliage Spots 2026”). This year Labor Thanksgiving Day falls on a Monday, creating a three-day weekend from November 21 to 23. Its first day, Saturday November 21, stood at 93.8% at 45 days out and 99.6% at the latest reading 11 days out (N=165 properties, 4,451 rooms), pinned almost at the ceiling. A comparison of booking progress for this three-day weekend against other prefectures, taken as an October 9 snapshot, is available in Nov 21–23 Foliage Weekend booking progress.

The Saturdays after the holiday weekend, by contrast, start from a lower point at 45 days out. November 28 began at 85.2%, December 5 at 81.3% and December 12 at 75.6% — roughly 4–9pt lower with each week. The pace of build-up from there, however, is not slow. November 28 added +10.0pt from 45 days out to the latest reading at 18 days out, December 5 added +10.1pt through 25 days out, and December 12 had already added +8.9pt by 32 days out to reach 84.5%. The starting point falls, but the capacity to build remains about the same as on foliage-season Saturdays.

Estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis), all properties in Hakone Town. N=161–165 properties / 4,383–4,471 rooms (based on major booking site listings). Horizontal axis: days remaining until the stay date. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis). “—” indicates stay dates that have not yet reached 30 days out. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

As a benchmark, consider October, which has already closed. The five Saturdays in October stood at 94.3–98.7% the day before arrival (N=150–162 properties, 4,120–4,450 rooms), and the average across all October days was 92.5%. Saturday December 5 is already approaching the lower end of this band at 25 days out, and the estimated share of properties with no listed inventory visible on OTAs has passed half, at 51.6%. For November 28, the same share has reached 64.6%. The current picture from the curves is that Saturdays fill even after the foliage season, and the issue shifts from Saturday to the days on either side of it.

The Gap to Friday and Sunday — Set at 45 Days Out, Then Running in Parallel

Next, compare the Fridays and Sundays that flank each Saturday at the same three points. At 45 days out, the Saturday–Sunday gap was 10.5pt in the week of November 28, 13.5pt in the week of December 5, 15.5pt in the week of December 12 and 16.8pt in the week of December 19 — widening the further the date is from the foliage season. The gap to Friday also opened in the same direction, at 4.4pt, 6.8pt, 6.8pt and 11.4pt, strengthening a “only Saturday stands up” pattern toward late December.

What stands out is that this gap barely moves after 45 days out. In the week of December 5, pickup from 45 days out to the latest reading was +9.6pt for Friday, +10.1pt for Saturday and +11.2pt for Sunday — almost level — so the Saturday–Sunday gap narrowed by only 1.1pt, from 13.5pt to 12.4pt. The week of November 28 moved at the same pace, with Friday +10.8pt, Saturday +10.0pt and Sunday +10.6pt, and the gap went from 10.5pt to 9.9pt. In other words, Fridays and Sundays are weak not because late pickup is sluggish but because their starting point at 45 days out is low. How far November Friday stays build up by 45 days out is examined for Hakone and Atami side by side in Do Citizens’ Day Friday stays show up at hotels?

Estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis), all properties in Hakone Town. Stay dates November 20 – December 20, N=154–171 properties / 4,359–4,556 rooms (based on major booking site listings). Bars show 45 days out; the line shows the latest observation on November 10 (10–40 days out depending on stay date). Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis), all properties in Hakone Town. “—” indicates stay dates that have not yet reached 30 days out. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Looking only at the 15 days from 45 to 30 days out, pickup was +6.1 to +7.6pt for Fridays, +6.2 to +6.8pt for Saturdays and +7.7 to +8.4pt for Sundays (4th week of November and 1st week of December). Sunday’s slightly larger gain is consistent with Saturday availability thinning first and bookings spilling over to the adjacent day. The window from 30 to 14 days out can be checked on mid-November stay dates that have already passed 14 days out: Friday November 13 gained +3.8pt, Friday November 20 +4.2pt and Sunday November 15 +3.7pt, while Saturdays November 14 and 21 each gained only +2.2pt. Fridays and Sundays retain more room to move late in the curve than Saturdays, which are already near the ceiling.

Broken down by property type, the day-of-week gap does not appear uniformly. At the latest reading for the 1st week of December, ryokan (N=106–108 properties, 2,827–2,888 rooms) stood at 92.6% on Saturday versus 85.3% on Friday and 78.4% on Sunday, a 14.2pt gap to Sunday. Resort hotels (N=20 properties, 926 rooms) were at 90.2% on Saturday, 88.4% on Friday and 84.8% on Sunday, with a gap of only 5.4pt to Sunday and 1.8pt to Friday. In the 4th week of November, too, the Saturday–Sunday gap was 11.1pt for ryokan versus 6.5pt for resort hotels. The pattern suggests that ryokan, whose products center on one-night stays with dinner and breakfast included, see demand concentrate more heavily on the single Saturday night.

Estimated OCC by property type in Hakone Town (OTA listed-inventory basis, based on major booking site listings). The latest observation is 24–26 days before the stay date. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Estimated Settled ADR — Monthly Rates Are Nearly Level in November and December; the Gap Shows Up in Day-of-Week Occupancy

Viewed from the price side, however, a “post-foliage slump” does not show up strongly in the monthly numbers. The estimated settled ADR (final) for ryokan in Hakone Town was ¥28,600 in November 2025 (N=138 properties), up +12.4% YoY, and ¥27,600 in December 2025 (N=139 properties), up +5.3% YoY. December was 3.3% below November, but in 2024 the reverse held, with December (¥26,200, N=158 properties) 3.3% above November (¥25,400, N=158 properties); across the two years, the difference between the two months stays in the 3% range. Because December includes the busy year-end days at the end of the month, its monthly average likely holds at a level comparable to the foliage month.

The pattern is even stronger for resort hotels: ¥36,700 in November 2025 (N=28 properties, +9.5% YoY) versus ¥37,800 in December (N=29 properties, +24.0% YoY), with December the higher of the two. In October 2026, the most recent finalized month, ryokan were at ¥26,400 (N=154 properties), up +4.8% YoY, and resort hotels at ¥43,600 (N=29 properties), up +29.0% YoY — rates continue to run above the prior year.

Estimated settled ADR of ryokan in Hakone Town (tax-excluded equivalent). N=138–162 properties (finalized months); November and December 2026 are estimates based on current sales (N=147 properties, dotted line) and may change. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Estimated settled ADR in Hakone Town (tax-excluded equivalent). YoY compares finalized months (2025 ÷ 2024). November and December 2026 are estimates based on current sales; a direct comparison with final values must wait until the month closes. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

For November and December 2026, estimates based on current sales put ryokan at ¥28,100 and ¥27,200 (both N=147 properties) and resort hotels at ¥38,400 and ¥40,500 (both N=29 properties). These values will move with further sales, and a direct comparison with final values must wait until each month closes. Even so, the shape of monthly rates being nearly level between November and December also appears in the 2026 estimates. To sum up so far, what opens up in post-foliage Hakone is not the monthly average rate but the distribution of occupancy between Saturday and the Friday and Sunday of the same week. For the range of day-of-week pricing, see also Weekend Premium 2026: Tokyo Business 24% vs Hakone Ryokan 10%.

Compared With Nearby Onsen Towns — Only in Hakone Does the Weekend Gap Not Widen After 45 Days Out

To check whether Hakone’s pattern — “the gap is set at 45 days out and then runs in parallel” — is common to onsen destinations, we compare it with five nearby onsen municipalities using the same estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis, observed November 10, 2026) (Table 5). Averaging the Saturday–Sunday gap across the four post-foliage Saturdays and the following Sundays, Hakone Town was at 14.1pt at 45 days out and 14.0pt at the latest reading — virtually unchanged. By contrast, in Atami (5.8pt → 8.3pt), Ito (12.5pt → 14.4pt), Kusatsu (18.9pt → 21.0pt), Nikko (8.8pt → 11.9pt) and Fujikawaguchiko (3.2pt → 6.4pt), the gap widened by +1.9 to +3.2pt after 45 days out in every case.

Estimated OCC for all properties (OTA listed-inventory basis, based on major booking site listings). Gap = Saturday − Sunday. Rooms covered: Hakone Town 4,383–4,556, Atami City 4,747–4,832, Ito City 3,823–3,848, Kusatsu Town 2,231–2,253, Nikko City 4,580–4,689, Fujikawaguchiko Town 2,532–2,624. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

In terms of the size of the gap itself, Kusatsu’s 21.0pt is the largest, and Hakone’s 14.0pt sits in the middle, alongside Ito (14.4pt). Weak Sundays are not a Hakone-specific problem but a pattern common to onsen destinations whose demand concentrates on a single Saturday night. What distinguishes Hakone is that Sundays build at almost the same pace as Saturdays, so the gap hardly widens from where it stood at 45 days out. In Atami, Sunday exceeded Saturday by 2.4pt in the week of December 5–6, likely because the winter edition of the Atami Marine Fireworks Festival (熱海海上花火大会) is scheduled for Sunday December 6 (Walkerplus, “Fireworks Festivals 2026”). The contrast — weeks with a demand anchor on Sunday see the gap narrow, weeks without one see it widen — offers a clue for how to build Sunday-night business.

How Far Will December Sundays Build? Three Scenarios and a Two-Axis Sensitivity Table

If the gap set at 45 days out continues to run in parallel, a Sunday’s landing can be roughly gauged from its current value plus pickup over the remaining period. Because the December 2025 curves cannot be traced back for Hakone Town, we used as a yardstick the pickup of five Sundays in October–November 2026 that have already landed (October 4, 18 and 25, and November 1 and 8; October 11, the middle day of a three-day weekend, is excluded) (Table 6). Sunday December 13 is at 67.5% at 33 days out, and pickup from the same number of days remaining was a minimum of +4.9pt, a median of +12.2pt and a maximum of +14.7pt. Applying these gives a landing of 72.4%–82.2%, with a mid case of 79.7%, which leaves a 13.4pt gap to the mid-case landing of 93.1% for Saturday December 12 calculated the same way.

Estimated OCC for all properties in Hakone Town (OTA listed-inventory basis, N=161–171 properties). Pickup is the increase in estimated OCC from the same number of days remaining to the day before arrival for five Sundays (five Saturdays) in October–November 2026. Landings are projections capped at 100%. Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

The October–November Sundays fell in foliage season, with high starting points of 75–88%, so they built up from less remaining inventory than December Sundays. December Sundays, with more inventory available, have room to swing above the mid case if demand materializes, but demand on the scale of the foliage season is hard to expect. The scenario range should be read as a guide that reflects both sides. Because an individual property’s position often differs from the market average, Table 7 lets you draw a landing estimate on two axes: your current value for Sunday December 13 and the pickup over the remaining 33 days. For example, a property currently at 60% would land at 72.2% with mid-case pickup and no higher than 74.7% even at maximum pickup. Closing the gap to the market’s Saturday mid-case landing of 93.1% requires raising the current value itself rather than counting on larger pickup — consistent with the “gap is set at the starting point” structure this article has traced.

The pickup columns are the actual results of five Sundays in October–November 2026 (33 days out → day before arrival, in ascending order). Source: projection by HotelBank Editorial Team based on MetroEngines Research estimated OCC

For Revenue Managers of Ryokan and Resort Hotels in Hakone — Implications and Action Plan

Taking November 11 as the starting point, the dates on which the Friday, Saturday and Sunday of the four post-foliage weeks reach T-30 and T-14 are as follows. The 4th week of November and the 1st week of December have already passed 30 days out, so the remaining checkpoint is 14 days out.

Market position is the estimated OCC for all properties in Hakone Town (OTA listed-inventory basis, N=161–171 properties). Source: compiled by HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Following this calendar, the actions for each time frame are summarized below together with decision guidelines.

All of these are check frameworks that use market aggregates as a yardstick; the right position for your own property will vary with location, room mix and meal format. Use the figures as a starting point for decisions and read them alongside your own results.

Summary — Three Yardsticks for Reading Post-Foliage Hakone

First, Saturdays fill even after the foliage is over. November 28 was at 95.2% at 18 days out and December 5 at 91.4% at 25 days out, approaching the 94.3–98.7% band at which October Saturdays landed the day before arrival. Second, the gap to Friday and Sunday is set at 45 days out and then runs in parallel. The Saturday–Sunday gap in the 1st week of December was 13.5pt at 45 days out and still 12.4pt at the latest reading, so T-30 and T-14 are less days for closing the gap than days for measuring it and applying the lesson to the next week. Third, monthly estimated settled ADR is nearly level between November and December: ryokan at ¥28,600 in November 2025 versus ¥27,600 in December, and resort hotels at ¥36,700 versus ¥37,800. What moves after the foliage is the day-of-week distribution of occupancy, not the rate level. The three perspectives — starting point, parallel movement and day-of-week distribution — can serve as a framework for preparing the weeks right after any peak, not only the end of foliage season.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. How full do Saturdays get in Hakone in December, after the autumn foliage?

A. On estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis) observed November 10, 2026, Saturday November 28 had built up to 95.2% at 18 days out and Saturday December 5 to 91.4% at 25 days out. That is close to the 94.3–98.7% band at which the five October Saturdays landed the day before arrival; Saturdays continue to fill even after the foliage season.

Q. How large is the gap between Saturday and Friday/Sunday in Hakone?

A. As observed November 10, 2026, the Saturday–Sunday gap was 9.9pt for the week of November 28–29, 12.4pt for December 5–6, 17.0pt for December 12–13 and 16.7pt for December 19–20, growing larger later in December. The gap to Friday was 3.6–10.8pt. Most of the gap is already in place at 45 days out.

Q. Does the weekend gap narrow close to the stay date?

A. In Hakone Town it tends neither to narrow nor widen. Averaged over the four post-foliage weeks, the Saturday–Sunday gap was 14.1pt at 45 days out and 14.0pt at the latest observation on November 10, 2026 — almost the same. Over the same period the gap widened by +1.9 to +3.2pt in Atami, Ito, Kusatsu, Nikko and Fujikawaguchiko; of the six municipalities compared, Hakone was the only one where it ran in parallel.

Q. Where should we expect Sunday December 13 to land?

A. Estimated OCC as of November 10, 2026 (33 days out) is 67.5%. Applying the actual pickup of five October–November Sundays gives a landing of 72.4%–82.2%, with a mid case of 79.7%. A 13.4pt gap is expected to remain versus the mid-case landing of 93.1% for Saturday December 12 calculated the same way. This is only a guide based on applying past pickup.

Q. Do ryokan rates in Hakone fall in December?

A. Not significantly, on monthly estimated settled ADR (tax-excluded equivalent). Ryokan were at ¥28,580 in November 2025 (N=138 properties) versus ¥27,634 in December (N=139 properties), −3.3%; in 2024, conversely, December was 3.3% above November. Resort hotels were higher in December: ¥36,690 in November 2025 versus ¥37,803 in December.

About the Data

References and Sources

■ Data sources

MetroEngines Research estimated OCC (OTA listed-inventory basis; all properties in Hakone Town, Atami City, Ito City, Kusatsu Town, Nikko City and Fujikawaguchiko Town, plus ryokan and resort hotels in Hakone Town; stay dates October–December 2026; latest observation November 10, 2026) and estimated settled ADR for Hakone Town (ryokan and resort hotels; monthly from January 2024 to March 2027; finalized months based on actual sales, November 2026 onward estimated from current sales). Foliage and fireworks dates are based on information published by Walkerplus.

■ Projection assumptions

Tables 6 and 7 are simple projections that add to the estimated OCC observed November 10, 2026 the pickup (minimum, median, maximum) from the same number of days remaining to the day before arrival for five Sundays (five Saturdays) in Hakone Town that landed in October–November 2026, capped at 100%. Changes in December demand levels or sales measures are not reflected. The gaps in Table 5 are four-week averages of Saturday estimated OCC minus the following Sunday’s.

■ Limitations and caveats

Estimated OCC is on an OTA listed-inventory basis and counts unlisted rooms and stop-sells as taken, so it reads higher than actual room occupancy. Because the December 2025 curves fall outside the observation period, the pickup yardstick is limited to the foliage months of October–November and reflects days with high starting points. Estimated settled ADR for November and December 2026 will change with sales and cannot be compared with final values.

■ References