China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged its citizens to avoid travel to Japan for the time being on November 14, 2025, and November 14, 2026 marks exactly one year since. According to visitor arrival data from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), Chinese arrivals fell to 330,435 in December 2025, the month after the advisory (−45.3% YoY), and the January–September 2026 total came to just 3,335,500 (−55.5% YoY). What is easy to overlook is that from the December 2026 figures onward, the “same month last year” baseline itself switches to this depressed level. This article quantifies how far the baseline has fallen, nationally and by prefecture, and sets out how to read the YoY figures that will be published from December onward.
• ADR (Average Daily Rate) = an estimated settled room rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying segment-specific adjustment factors to the lowest-plan rate each property publishes on OTAs (per room, 2 guests per room, tax included). Checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent 3 months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual settled rates and accounting figures.
• Area-level ADR (prefecture / municipality) is the median of the estimated settled rates of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for 2 guests per room (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuous tracking of OTA published rates for about 168,000 properties in Japan, of which about 27,000 are confirmed operating)
- — 330,435 (−45.3%): Chinese visitor arrivals in December 2025 (JNTO). YoY figures from December 2026 onward will be calculated against this low base.
- — +30.4% YoY is still −28.7% vs two years earlier: a worked example assuming December 2026 matches September (estimate) at 430,800. A positive YoY figure alone does not tell you how far demand has recovered.
- — A more than 6x gap between prefectures: Chinese guest nights in December 2025 fell −65.1% in Gifu and −60.0% in Shizuoka, but only −10.5% in Hyogo.
- — The rate baseline, by contrast, is high: estimated settled ADR in December 2025 exceeded the prior year in all 9 prefectures (from Chiba +6.1% to Yamanashi +32.7%).
- — The mix has shifted to Taiwan and Korea: China’s share of foreign guest nights in January–August fell from 21.9% to 11.4% nationally between 2025 and 2026, while Taiwan rose from 13.0% to 16.4%.
The November 14, 2025 Advisory — Dates and Wording Confirmed in Primary Sources
First, the dates and wording behind the premise. On the night of November 14, 2025, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency reported an announcement issued that day by the Foreign Ministry’s consular information account “Lingshi Zhitongche” (Consular Express), under the headline that the Foreign Ministry and the Chinese embassy and consulates in Japan solemnly remind Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan in the near term (English translation by the editorial team). The announcement went on to ask Chinese citizens already in Japan to pay attention to the local security situation and strengthen their safety precautions.
Advisories to the same effect were repeated afterwards. According to Xinhua, the Foreign Ministry urged citizens on January 26, 2026 to avoid visiting Japan during the Spring Festival, and on March 26 the ministry’s Department of Consular Affairs issued another reminder in the same wording. As far as the editorial team could confirm at the time of research (November 13, 2026), no withdrawal had been announced. This article does not assess the merits or background of the advisory; it only describes how the statistics moved after it, as the “post-advisory trend”.
Chinese Arrivals Fell to 330K in December — How Far the YoY Baseline Has Dropped
So how far has the baseline fallen? Overlaying JNTO’s monthly statistics for 2024, 2025 and 2026 shows that the drop becomes clear from December 2025. In November 2025, the month of the advisory, arrivals were 562,184 (+2.9% YoY), roughly flat because visits from the first half of the month were still counted. December, however, came in at 330,435, more than 270,000 below the 604,293 of December 2024.
Source: compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from JNTO “Visitor Arrivals” (August and September 2026 are estimates)
The level has not recovered in 2026 either. YoY changes for January–September ranged from −44.5% in September (the shallowest) to −60.7% in January (the deepest). Because Lunar New Year moved across months — January 29 in 2025 and February 17 in 2026 — January and February are better read together; combined, the two months fell −54.1%, from 1,703,444 to 782,030. The table below lists the 10 months that will serve as the “same month last year” baseline from December 2026 through September 2027. The rightmost column shows the growth each month would need to return to the level of one year earlier.
| Baseline month | Chinese arrivals | Same month a year earlier | YoY | Growth needed to regain the prior-year level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | 330,435 | 604,293 | −45.3% | +82.9% |
| Jan 2026 | 385,519 | 980,520 | −60.7% | +154.3% |
| Feb 2026 | 396,511 | 722,924 | −45.2% | +82.3% |
| Mar 2026 | 291,686 | 661,817 | −55.9% | +126.9% |
| Apr 2026 | 330,776 | 765,189 | −56.8% | +131.3% |
| May 2026 | 313,123 | 790,089 | −60.4% | +152.3% |
| Jun 2026 | 340,803 | 798,001 | −57.3% | +134.2% |
| Jul 2026 | 428,296 | 974,564 | −56.1% | +127.5% |
| Aug 2026 (estimate) | 418,000 | 1,018,747 | −59.0% | +143.7% |
| Sep 2026 (estimate) | 430,800 | 775,657 | −44.5% | +80.1% |
Source: compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from JNTO “Visitor Arrivals”
Over the full 10 months, Chinese arrivals from December 2025 to September 2026 totaled about 3.666 million, −54.7% against the same 10 months a year earlier (about 8.092 million). In other words, YoY figures from December 2026 onward will be calculated against a denominator that has shrunk by more than half. China’s share of total visitor arrivals also fell from 21.3% for full-year 2025 to 10.9% in January–September 2026.
YoY From December 2026 — The Same Number Can Flip the Sign
When the baseline drops, the same number of visitors produces a very different YoY reading. To check this, we set three hypothetical arrival figures for December 2026 and calculated both the YoY change and the change versus two years earlier. All are arithmetic illustrations, not forecasts of December results.
| Hypothetical December 2026 arrivals | Chinese arrivals | YoY (vs Dec 2025) | 2-year change (vs Dec 2024) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same as Dec 2025 | 330,435 | ±0.0% (same) | −45.3% |
| Same as Sep 2026 (estimate) | 430,800 | +30.4% | −28.7% |
| Same as Dec 2024 | 604,293 | +82.9% | ±0.0% (same) |
Source: HotelBank Editorial Team calculations based on JNTO “Visitor Arrivals” (worked examples for hypothetical figures)
For example, if December arrivals matched the latest month, September 2026 (an estimated 430,800), YoY would be a large +30.4%, yet the figure would still be −28.7% versus December 2024. Conversely, returning to the December 2024 level would require +82.9% YoY growth. Even if headlines from December onward say “China has turned positive YoY”, that alone does not tell you whether demand is approaching its pre-advisory level.
One more thing to watch is the timing of Lunar New Year. In 2027 it falls on February 6, eleven days earlier than February 17 in 2026. Because travel around the holiday is more likely to spill into late January, YoY figures for January and February 2027 will swing on a calendar shift layered on top of the low base. It is safest to combine those two months and also compare them with two years earlier (1,703,444 in January–February 2025). The 2027 holiday calendar and the prefectures that absorb the demand are covered in Lunar New Year 2027: 4 Markets Converge Feb 6–9, Hokkaido ADR 1.18x.
December in the Accommodation Statistics — China −36.0%, Yet Foreign Guest Nights +2.5%
After visitor arrivals, we check the same December from the accommodation side. In the 2025 final figures of the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (facilities with 10 or more employees), Chinese guest nights in December 2025 were 1,565,450, down −36.0% from 2,445,180 a year earlier. November recorded 1,833,720 (−5.8% YoY), so, as with arrivals, the gap widens from December.
Total foreign guest nights, on the other hand, came to 13,566,450 in December, 2.5% above the prior year. Excluding China, the total rose +11.2% from 10,789,690 to 12,001,000; by market, Taiwan was up +20.5% (+323,720), Korea +9.6% (+167,390), the US +11.0% (+131,810) and Thailand +16.7% (+89,490). As a result, China’s share of December foreign guest nights fell from 18.5% to 11.5%. Looking only at the national total, the drop in the baseline does not show. The difference appears in regions where China’s share had been high.
9 Prefectures With a High China Share — The December Baseline Drop Differs by Prefecture
We therefore took the 18 prefectures that recorded 1 million or more foreign guest nights in 2025 and picked the 9 where China’s share exceeded the national average (19.7%): Shizuoka (39.7%), Hyogo (33.6%), Aichi (28.1%), Osaka (27.9%), Yamanashi (26.2%), Kanagawa (21.8%), Gifu (21.0%), Chiba (20.9%) and Kyoto (20.1%).
Source: compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2024 and 2025 final figures, facilities with 10+ employees)
Comparing Chinese guest nights in December 2025 with a year earlier, four prefectures had fallen by more than half: Gifu −65.1%, Shizuoka −60.0%, Osaka −52.5% and Aichi −52.1%. Hyogo, by contrast, fell only −10.5%, while Kyoto (−37.8%) and Kanagawa (−37.1%) were close to the national figure (−36.0%). Even among “high China share” prefectures, the December baseline fell by amounts that differ more than sixfold.
| Prefecture | China share, 2025 | China, Dec 2024 (guest nights) | China, Dec 2025 (guest nights) | YoY | China share in December | Foreign guest nights in December, YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan (national) | 19.7% | 2,445,180 | 1,565,450 | −36.0% | 18.5% → 11.5% | +2.5% |
| Shizuoka | 39.7% | 43,030 | 17,210 | −60.0% | 30.2% → 13.4% | −10.1% |
| Hyogo | 33.6% | 38,450 | 34,400 | −10.5% | 29.8% → 21.7% | +22.7% |
| Aichi | 28.1% | 84,570 | 40,490 | −52.1% | 24.0% → 11.2% | +2.5% |
| Osaka | 27.9% | 514,110 | 244,440 | −52.5% | 25.6% → 13.1% | −7.4% |
| Yamanashi | 26.2% | 32,430 | 18,050 | −44.3% | 20.9% → 11.6% | +0.3% |
| Kanagawa | 21.8% | 71,740 | 45,120 | −37.1% | 20.7% → 14.8% | −12.0% |
| Gifu | 21.0% | 30,100 | 10,500 | −65.1% | 19.6% → 8.5% | −20.0% |
| Chiba | 20.9% | 53,010 | 27,510 | −48.1% | 15.1% → 9.4% | −16.2% |
| Kyoto | 20.1% | 262,550 | 163,400 | −37.8% | 21.8% → 13.8% | −2.0% |
Source: compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2024 and 2025 final figures, facilities with 10+ employees)
This gap will feed straight into how the prefecture-level December 2026 statistics read. In Gifu and Shizuoka, where the baseline fell by more than 60%, even a small recovery in Chinese stays can produce a large positive YoY figure. In Hyogo, where the baseline fell much less, the same recovery in numbers will show up as a smaller YoY swing. When comparing the size of YoY changes across prefectures, check the difference in denominators first. Note also that the first preliminary release of the accommodation statistics has no prefecture table; prefecture-by-nationality figures appear only from the second preliminary release, so the full prefecture figures for December 2026 will arrive about a month after the national figures.
Market Mix, January–August 2026 — Taiwan and Korea Gained Share
After the baseline dropped, how did the guest mix in the 9 prefectures change? Taking a different angle from our earlier month-by-month breakdown, we check it here using the cumulative January–August mix. From the January 2026 data, the survey’s stratification basis changed from number of employees to number of guest rooms, and the nationality tables switched from “facilities with 10+ employees” to “facilities with 20+ rooms”. Because comparing raw guest-night counts with the previous year could mix in the effect of this revision, we convert them into shares within the same month and prefecture.
Source: compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2025: final figures, facilities with 10+ employees; 2026: second preliminary figures, facilities with 20+ rooms)
Nationally, China’s share of foreign guest nights fell from 21.9% in January–August 2025 to 11.4% in January–August 2026, while Taiwan rose from 13.0% to 16.4% and Korea from 11.3% to 13.6%. Within the 9 prefectures the moves were even larger. In Shizuoka, China fell 25.0pt from 44.7% to 19.7% while Korea grew from 7.1% to 15.9%. In Hyogo, Taiwan rose from 17.7% to 31.4%, overtaking China (18.5%), and in Aichi Taiwan has also become the largest market at 28.6%. In Kyoto, the US rose from 15.3% to 18.1%, almost double China’s share (9.8%). Which markets replaced demand in the China-dependent prefectures is a question worth tracking prefecture by prefecture in the monthly data.
| Prefecture | China | Korea | Taiwan | Hong Kong | US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan (national) | 21.9% → 11.4%(−10.5pt) | 11.3% → 13.6%(+2.2pt) | 13.0% → 16.4%(+3.4pt) | 4.3% → 4.7%(+0.4pt) | 11.1% → 11.8%(+0.7pt) |
| Shizuoka | 44.7% → 19.7%(−25.0pt) | 7.1% → 15.9%(+8.8pt) | 8.7% → 12.4%(+3.7pt) | 5.0% → 6.1%(+1.2pt) | 4.7% → 6.5%(+1.8pt) |
| Hyogo | 36.5% → 18.5%(−18.0pt) | 9.9% → 13.5%(+3.7pt) | 17.7% → 31.4%(+13.7pt) | 4.3% → 5.6%(+1.4pt) | 5.8% → 5.5%(−0.3pt) |
| Aichi | 31.5% → 11.4%(−20.1pt) | 11.7% → 17.1%(+5.4pt) | 18.8% → 28.6%(+9.8pt) | 6.1% → 6.8%(+0.6pt) | 3.4% → 3.5%(+0.1pt) |
| Osaka | 31.1% → 13.1%(−18.0pt) | 11.7% → 17.0%(+5.3pt) | 9.0% → 12.5%(+3.5pt) | 3.2% → 4.4%(+1.2pt) | 7.5% → 9.4%(+1.9pt) |
| Yamanashi | 30.0% → 11.5%(−18.5pt) | 2.5% → 4.4%(+2.0pt) | 15.6% → 16.6%(+1.0pt) | 5.3% → 6.7%(+1.4pt) | 5.1% → 6.8%(+1.7pt) |
| Kanagawa | 23.8% → 16.1%(−7.7pt) | 4.3% → 5.7%(+1.4pt) | 7.7% → 10.3%(+2.6pt) | 3.1% → 3.9%(+0.8pt) | 17.8% → 17.7%(−0.1pt) |
| Gifu* | 24.3% → 7.4%(−16.9pt) | 5.2% → 8.4%(+3.3pt) | 14.4% → 19.5%(+5.1pt) | 5.6% → 4.8%(−0.8pt) | 4.6% → 6.0%(+1.4pt) |
| Chiba | 21.9% → 9.5%(−12.4pt) | 4.9% → 6.7%(+1.8pt) | 11.2% → 14.0%(+2.8pt) | 2.1% → 2.3%(+0.1pt) | 15.6% → 16.9%(+1.2pt) |
| Kyoto | 22.0% → 9.8%(−12.3pt) | 4.6% → 5.2%(+0.6pt) | 7.2% → 9.8%(+2.7pt) | 1.9% → 1.9%(+0.1pt) | 15.3% → 18.1%(+2.8pt) |
Source: compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from the Japan Tourism Agency Overnight Travel Statistics Survey. 2025 figures are final (facilities with 10+ employees) and 2026 figures are second preliminary (facilities with 20+ rooms), so the facility coverage differs. *Gifu China figures include months with a standard error rate of 30% or more
For September, only the national figures from the first preliminary release have been published: China recorded 1,314,790 guest nights, 12.7% of foreign guest nights (10,386,730). Judging by the mix, China’s share has stayed just above 10% into the autumn. From December onward, YoY figures will compare this “just over 10%” market against a baseline that has fallen by more than half.
The Rate Baseline Is High — December ADR in the 9 Prefectures
While the volume baseline is low, the rate baseline points the other way. Comparing estimated settled ADR in the 9 prefectures across finalized months in MetroEngines Research data, December 2025 exceeded the prior year in all 9. The increases ranged from +6.1% in Chiba to +32.7% in Yamanashi; Kyoto rose +13.2% from ¥15,800 to ¥17,900 and Osaka +10.0% from ¥10,100 to ¥11,100.
| Prefecture | ADR, Dec 2024 | ADR, Dec 2025 | YoY | Properties covered (prior year / current year) | ADR, Oct 2026 | YoY | Properties covered (prior year / current year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shizuoka | ¥13,032 | ¥15,546 | +19.3% | N=848/802 | ¥12,683 | +0.4% | N=809/859 |
| Hyogo | ¥13,564 | ¥15,145 | +11.7% | N=575/540 | ¥13,772 | +3.3% | N=539/554 |
| Aichi | ¥8,329 | ¥9,056 | +8.7% | N=517/495 | ¥11,077 | +26.8% | N=497/507 |
| Osaka | ¥10,106 | ¥11,120 | +10.0% | N=648/627 | ¥10,580 | −21.0% | N=641/661 |
| Yamanashi | ¥10,307 | ¥13,680 | +32.7% | N=297/280 | ¥11,266 | +1.8% | N=284/306 |
| Kanagawa | ¥13,403 | ¥15,289 | +14.1% | N=597/545 | ¥14,695 | +7.9% | N=556/579 |
| Gifu | ¥10,539 | ¥12,081 | +14.6% | N=394/352 | ¥12,527 | +1.6% | N=358/381 |
| Chiba | ¥10,034 | ¥10,646 | +6.1% | N=421/406 | ¥10,323 | +9.1% | N=403/426 |
| Kyoto | ¥15,829 | ¥17,918 | +13.2% | N=589/580 | ¥20,564 | +6.9% | N=576/602 |
Source: compiled by MetroEngines Research and the HotelBank Editorial Team (estimated settled ADR, tax-excluded equivalent; all months are finalized values)
In other words, December 2026 ADR will be compared against a “high baseline” — the opposite of Chinese visitor volume. YoY changes for October 2026, the latest finalized month, show many prefectures roughly flat — Shizuoka +0.4%, Gifu +1.6%, Yamanashi +1.8% — while Kanagawa (+7.9%), Kyoto (+6.9%) and Chiba (+9.1%) remain positive. Aichi’s +26.8% coincides with the Asian Games held in September–October, and Osaka’s −21.0% coincides with October of the prior year having been the closing stretch of Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai. Osaka’s ADR is itself an example of a high baseline making YoY look negative. When reading December rates, keep in mind that the December level a year earlier was high.
Booking Pace for Saturday, December 12 — Interim Reading at LT30
Finally, a note on how December capacity is filling right now. Looking at MetroEngines Research booking curves for the night of Saturday, December 12, 2026, estimated occupancy (based on OTA-listed inventory) at a lead time of 30 days (observed November 12) ranged from 70.6% (Gifu) to 79.6% (Yamanashi) across the 9 prefectures. The 15-day build-up from LT45 to LT30 was largest in Kanagawa (+10.6pt), Chiba (+10.1pt) and Kyoto (+9.1pt), with Osaka at +8.5pt.
Source: compiled by Metro Engines, Inc. and the HotelBank Editorial Team (night of December 12, 2026, LT45–LT30; occupancy is an estimate based on OTA-listed inventory)
| Prefecture | Coverage (Dec 12 night) | Sat Dec 12 night, LT45 | Same, LT30 | Build-up LT45 → LT30 | Reference: Sat Nov 14 night, LT30 | Reference: same, LT45 → LT30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shizuoka | 884 properties / 32,385 rooms | 65.5% | 73.4% | +7.9pt | 81.7% | +6.6pt |
| Hyogo | 583 properties / 20,476 rooms | 71.0% | 79.0% | +8.0pt | 90.7% | +6.1pt |
| Aichi | 360 properties / 34,555 rooms | 66.4% | 73.5% | +7.1pt | 92.1% | +5.5pt |
| Osaka | 455 properties / 63,145 rooms | 62.4% | 70.9% | +8.5pt | 89.1% | +6.6pt |
| Yamanashi | 360 properties / 9,843 rooms | 75.2% | 79.6% | +4.4pt | 85.7% | +8.2pt |
| Kanagawa | 449 properties / 31,486 rooms | 61.3% | 71.9% | +10.6pt | 78.7% | +9.2pt |
| Gifu | 312 properties / 11,377 rooms | 65.3% | 70.6% | +5.3pt | 85.3% | +6.4pt |
| Chiba | 465 properties / 27,197 rooms | 65.0% | 75.1% | +10.1pt | 74.1% | +6.5pt |
| Kyoto | 788 properties / 33,216 rooms | 66.3% | 75.4% | +9.1pt | 89.1% | +6.4pt |
Source: compiled by Metro Engines, Inc. and the HotelBank Editorial Team. Coverage is properties and rooms listed on major booking sites (property / room counts shown in the table); LT30 observed on November 12 and October 15, 2026
For reference, lining up the night of Saturday, November 14 (autumn foliage season) at the same LT30, the level for the December 12 night is 6–19pt lower in 8 of the prefectures (all except Chiba). However, the 15-day build-up for December 12 exceeded that for November 14 in 7 of the 9 prefectures. December Saturdays start from a lower position, but current pick-up is running as fast as or faster than in foliage season. The data do not show a breakdown by nationality, but they confirm that inventory is being absorbed even in prefectures where Chinese stays fell sharply last December.
Note on figures for future dates:Occupancy for the December 12 night is an interim reading as of the survey date (observed November 12, 2026) and will change toward the check-in date. It is an estimate based on the take-up of inventory sold on OTAs and differs from a property’s actual overall occupancy. Only observations within a 45-day lead time are used.
Implications for Operators — Read Post-December Figures With Three Yardsticks
To sum up, China-related YoY figures published from December 2026 onward will be compared against a low baseline for volume and a high baseline for rates. If you use the monthly figures for your own property decisions, add one more yardstick: alongside YoY, line up the change versus two years earlier (against December 2024–September 2025). If YoY is +30% but the two-year change is −29%, it is natural to read that as a recovery still in progress.
Next, compare prefecture statistics only after checking the difference in denominators. Prefectures such as Gifu and Shizuoka, where the December baseline fell by more than 60%, and prefectures such as Hyogo, where it fell only about 10%, will show different YoY swings for the same recovery in numbers. Checking in the tables which type your own prefecture resembles makes it easier to interpret the monthly news calmly.
It is also a chance to compare the market mix with your own booking data. In the 9 prefectures, the shares of Taiwan, Korea and the US have risen, and in Hyogo and Aichi Taiwan has become the largest market. When building sales plans on last December’s results, bear in mind that China’s share had already fallen by then; reviewing language support and channel allocation for the growing markets early can create room to capture more demand from year-end through Lunar New Year. For where Taiwanese guests stay by prefecture, see also Where Taiwanese Visitors Stay in Japan: 54.6% Outside Major Metros.
Summary
One year on from the November 14, 2025 advisory, the “same month last year” in the statistics switches to the post-advisory level from the December 2026 figures. Chinese arrivals fell to 330,435 (−45.3%) in December 2025, and stayed below half of the prior-year level for the following 10 months. From December onward, therefore, flat volume will read as 0% YoY and a modest recovery as a large positive. In the accommodation statistics, the December drop in Chinese guest nights differed by prefecture — −65.1% in Gifu versus −10.5% in Hyogo — so YoY swings will differ by prefecture as well. Meanwhile, December ADR in the 9 prefectures was above the prior year, so rates face a high baseline. Reading the change versus two years earlier and the market mix alongside YoY is the key to not misreading the figures after this milestone.
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References and Sources
■ Data sources
JNTO “Visitor Arrivals” (released October 21, 2026; August and September 2026 are estimates); Japan Tourism Agency “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey” (2024 and 2025 annual final figures, January–August 2026 second preliminary figures, September 2026 first preliminary figures); MetroEngines Research estimated settled ADR for the 9 prefectures (finalized months) and booking curves for the nights of December 12 and November 14, 2026 (LT45–LT30).
■ Calculation assumptions
“Growth needed to regain the prior-year level” is the prior-year same-month figure divided by the figure for the month in question, minus 1. The three December 2026 figures are arithmetic illustrations of how YoY will read, not forecasts. The 9 prefectures are those, among the 18 prefectures with 1 million or more foreign guest nights in 2025, where China’s share exceeded the national average.
■ Limitations
From the January 2026 data the accommodation survey changed its stratification basis, and the nationality coverage switched from “facilities with 10+ employees” to “facilities with 20+ rooms”, so 2025 and 2026 are compared by share rather than by raw guest nights. ADR and occupancy are estimates based on OTA listings and differ from individual properties’ actual results. Occupancy for the December 12 night is an interim reading as of the November 12, 2026 observation and does not include a nationality breakdown.