MetroEngines Research tracked remaining-room inventory across Tottori and Shimane prefectures for the peak night of Golden Week 2026 (stay date May 2). Of the 155 properties that list at least 30% of their total rooms on major booking sites, 19 sold out. Re-sorting the sold-out properties by estimated settled ADR band shows that hotel-type properties in the ¥12,000–¥20,000 band were thin on supply — just 5 properties with 546 rooms — yet 4 of them filled; in the ¥20,000+ band, 4 of the 8 onsen ryokan with 30 or more rooms sold out. This article overlays the sell-out pattern by price band on the depth of room supply, identifies the room rates and scale at which new development can target the two San’in prefectures, and estimates the ADR required for a new 80-room hotel.
• ADR (average daily rate) = an estimated settled rate (tax-excluded equivalent), calculated by applying a segment-specific adjustment factor to the lowest-plan level each property publishes on OTAs (per room, two guests per room, tax included). Cross-checked against property-level results disclosed by listed hotel REITs (91 properties, most recent three months), the median error is about 7%. These are estimates and differ from each property’s actual transaction prices and accounting figures.
• Area-level ADR (prefecture / municipality) is the median of the estimated settled rates of the properties covered (the level of a typical property in the area).
• Where listed prices are mentioned, they are per-room rates for two guests per room (tax included).
• OCC (occupancy) = rooms sold as a share of total rooms in the area (an estimate based on OTA sales inventory).
• Source: MetroEngines Research (continuously tracks OTA public prices for about 168,000 properties in Japan, of which about 27,000 are confirmed operating)
• LT (lead time) = days before check-in. Early sell-out LT = the lead time at which remaining rooms first reached zero (a larger value means an earlier sell-out). Sell-out days = the cumulative number of days on which zero remaining rooms were observed. In this article, “observed sell-out” refers to properties where zero remaining rooms were observed on at least one day by the day before the stay (LT1).
• Booking curve = the trajectory of OTA remaining rooms toward the check-in date. Only observations within 45 days of lead time are used.
• Occupancy (OTA-listed-inventory basis, estimated) is an estimate based on how inventory sold on OTAs is being absorbed, and differs from a property’s actual overall occupancy.
• Property-level remaining-room analysis covers only properties whose allotment on major booking sites is at least 30% of total rooms (Tottori: of 581 properties, 153 with inventory observations and 73 in scope; Shimane: of 800 properties, 186 with inventory observations and 82 in scope). Remaining rooms are counts within the published allotment and do not mean the entire property is full. The price-band analysis covers the 99 business hotels, city hotels, resort hotels and ryokan (4,089 rooms) for which an estimated settled ADR can be calculated.
• Room stock in this article covers lodging facilities with 10 or more rooms (excluding leisure hotels) within a 3,000 m radius of Matsue, Izumoshi, Yonago and Tottori stations. “Operating” means a selling price was confirmed on major booking sites in the last three months (September–November 2026) (as of November 6, 2026, MetroEngines Research).
- — 19 of 155 properties sold out — Tottori and Shimane on the GW 2026 peak night (stay date May 2). By price band, sell-outs clustered in two peaks: 9 hotel-type properties under ¥12,000 and 6 ryokan at ¥20,000+
- — Whitespace 1 is hotel-type at ¥12,000–¥20,000 — only 5 properties with 546 rooms, yet 4 sold out. Note, however, that sell-outs were concentrated at LT1–7 and the sample is small (N=5)
- — Whitespace 2 is onsen ryokan at ¥20,000+ with 30+ rooms — 4 of 8 properties (517 rooms) sold out at LT10–18. Food & beverage and staffing drive returns, so this is a case-by-case area
- — A new 80-room hotel needs an ADR of ¥16,000–¥20,000 — assuming total investment of ¥2.613bn including construction inflation, a 6–7% GOP yield and an assumed full-year occupancy of 70–75%
- — New builds in Matsue and Izumo; acquisition and renovation in Tottori and Yonago — city ADR in September 2026 was ¥12,000 in Matsue and ¥11,300 in Izumo, versus ¥8,700 in Tottori and ¥7,750 in Yonago
Summary — 19 Sell-Outs; the Gaps Are “Hotel-Type at ¥12,000–¥20,000” and “Mid-Size Onsen Ryokan at ¥20,000+”
To state the conclusion first, two gaps can be read in the price-band structure of the two San’in prefectures. The first is hotel-type properties at an estimated settled ADR of ¥12,000–¥20,000: business and city hotels combined number only 5 properties with 546 rooms, and 4 of them sold out on the GW peak night. The second is the ¥20,000+ band: the median room count of its 25 properties is a small 14 rooms, and among the 8 with 30 or more rooms, half filled 10–18 days before the stay date. Meanwhile, the under-¥8,000 and ¥8,000–¥12,000 bands hold 25 hotel-type properties with 1,813 rooms, and the 8 new properties of 50+ rooms (1,419 rooms) confirmed as opening in 2024–2026 fall almost entirely in these bands.
Applying this structure to a new 80-room build, total investment including construction-cost increases during the build period comes to ¥2.61bn, and the ADR needed for a 6–7% GOP yield is ¥16,000–¥20,000 at an assumed full-year occupancy of 70–75%. Matsue City’s ADR was ¥12,000 in September 2026 and Izumo City’s was ¥14,000 in May, so the condition for success is a product designed to capture the upper half of the gap band on a full-year basis.
Market Trends — Occupancy Trails the National Average, but Rates Peak in November
First, the macro environment of the two prefectures from public statistics. According to the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey for full-year 2025 (final figures), total guest nights were 2.57 million in Tottori (−1.1% YoY) and 3.43 million in Shimane (−0.5%), still recovering at −10.9% and −5.9% respectively versus 2019. Room occupancy was 52.2% in Tottori and 54.2% in Shimane, below the national 61.6%; even for business hotels, Tottori’s 68.5% and Shimane’s 67.7% trailed the national 75.3% by around 7pt. Foreign guest nights, however, grew to 204,000 in Tottori (+72.0% YoY) and 114,000 in Shimane (+36.5%), so the demand base is broadening.
Rates, on the other hand, are resilient. According to MetroEngines Research data, the estimated settled ADR in October 2026 was ¥9,000 in Tottori (N=154, +9.2% YoY) and ¥10,800 in Shimane (N=179, +7.5%). Looking at the annual shape, Tottori peaks in August (¥10,100) and November–December, and Shimane in August (¥10,900) and November; Shimane’s November 2025 figure of ¥12,600 was the highest of the year. November 2026, estimated from listed levels at the time of the survey, stands at ¥11,500 in Tottori (N=147) and ¥15,400 in Shimane (N=168), so the autumn peak is being observed at a higher level than last year.
Behind Shimane’s November peak is Kamiarizuki, the month when the gods gather at Izumo Taisha. According to Izumo Taisha, in 2026 the Kamimukae Shinji and Kamimukae-sai are held on the evening of November 18, Kamiari-sai on the 19th, 23rd and 25th, and Karasade-sai on the 25th. By municipality, November 2025 ADR was ¥17,800 in Matsue City and ¥15,300 in Izumo City, +60.7% and +45.8% above the respective September levels. That the rate-lifting months are clearly defined across the year is a useful anchor when building a full-year ADR for the development scenario later in this article. How quickly Izumo and Matsue inventory fills on the night of Kamimukae-sai is tracked day by day in Kamiari Festival Nov 18: Izumo at 100% estimated OCC from 45 days out (estimates for the stay date of November 18, 2026).
ADR by Municipality — Two Tiers: Matsue and Izumo Around ¥12,000, Yonago and Tottori Around ¥8,000
Next, the geographic distribution of price bands at the municipal level. Among the eight main municipalities, the September 2026 estimated settled ADR was highest in the onsen town of Misasa (¥17,000, N=19), followed by cities in eastern and central Shimane in the low-¥10,000s: Matsue ¥12,000 (N=56), Izumo ¥11,300 (N=36) and Oda ¥10,500 (N=13). On the Tottori side, Tottori City stood at ¥8,700 (N=37) and Yonago at ¥7,750 (N=44), followed by Hamada ¥6,500 (N=15) and Kurayoshi ¥5,400 (N=15). Year on year, all four main cities rose — Yonago +16.0%, Tottori +10.8%, Matsue +8.3% and Izumo +7.8% — so the whole structure is moving up while the two rate tiers remain intact.
What stands out here is that the ¥12,000 level roughly matches the rate of a typical property in Matsue and Izumo. In other words, the ¥12,000–¥20,000 band sits “just above the city median” in eastern Shimane, but at “about 1.4–2.6 times the city median” in Tottori and Yonago. The same price band therefore means a different distance from existing properties depending on the target city.
Location Analysis — 9,825 Operating Rooms Within 3 km of Four Stations, 82% in Business Hotels
Turning to the station areas of the four candidate cities: within a 3 km radius of Matsue, Izumoshi, Yonago and Tottori stations, 95 operating properties hold 9,825 rooms, of which business hotels account for 8,100 rooms (82.4%). By ring, Matsue Station has 32 properties / 3,172 rooms, Tottori Station 24 / 2,658, Yonago Station 24 / 2,521 and Izumoshi Station 15 / 1,474.
| Matsue Station | 32 properties / 3,172 rooms |
| Tottori Station | 24 properties / 2,658 rooms |
| Yonago Station | 24 properties / 2,521 rooms |
| Izumoshi Station | 15 properties / 1,474 rooms |
| Matsue Sta. front (Asahimachi) | Commercial zone / 500% |
| Tottori Sta. front (Sakaemachi) | Commercial zone / 600% |
| Yonago Sta. front (Meijicho) | Commercial zone / 500% |
| Izumoshi Sta. front (Imaichicho) | Commercial zone / 500% |
Land in Asahimachi in front of Matsue Station is the most expensive of the four at ¥175,000 per ㎡ (+1.7% YoY), followed by Sakaemachi in front of Tottori Station at ¥114,000, Meijicho in front of Yonago Station at ¥99,500 and Imaichicho in front of Izumoshi Station at ¥97,200. All are commercial zones with designated floor-area ratios of 500–600%, so an 80-room limited-service hotel fits on a site of around 600 ㎡. Land accounts for only 4–5% of total investment in Plan B below, so development returns in San’in are determined almost entirely by construction cost and room rate.
Tracing supply back by opening year, rooms have increased in all four rings since 2017. The largest growth was in the Tottori Station ring, up 858 rooms (+43.1%) from 1,991 in 2017 to 2,849 in 2026. The Matsue Station ring grew 683 rooms (+18.4%) from 3,715 to 4,398, the Yonago Station ring 523 rooms (+26.5%) from 1,971 to 2,494, and the Izumoshi Station ring 151 rooms (+11.0%) from 1,369 to 1,520.
GW Peak-Night Inventory — Shimane at 82% 45 Days Out, Tottori Fills in the Final Two Weeks
From here, inventory data is used to gauge the strength of demand. Looking at the prefecture-level booking curve for the May 2, 2026 stay date, Shimane (51 properties / 3,704 rooms in scope, major booking-site listed basis) showed occupancy (OTA-listed-inventory basis, estimated) of 82.0% 45 days out, 89.8% 30 days out and 95.9% 14 days out — high from early on — reaching 97.9% the day before. Tottori (43 properties / 3,438 rooms, same basis) was at 67.6% 45 days out and 76.7% 30 days out, then absorbed the remainder in the final two weeks, from 89.7% at 14 days to 94.8% at 7 days and 97.6% at 2 days. Even within the same Golden Week, Shimane fills more than a month ahead while Tottori keeps moving until the last minute.
At the property level, 19 of the 155 properties in scope (4,353 rooms) sold out (1,967 rooms). By prefecture, Tottori had 9 and Shimane 10; by type, 11 business hotels, 6 ryokan and 2 city hotels. The median early sell-out LT was 14, and the earliest property sold out at LT32 in Tottori and LT30 in Shimane. No sell-outs were observed among the 56 properties (264 rooms) — vacation rentals, guesthouses and the like — that fall outside the estimated settled ADR scope.
The size of the sold-out properties is also distinctive. Splitting the 99 properties in the price-band analysis by room count, 12 of the 17 properties with 80+ rooms sold out, versus 7 of the 82 properties with fewer than 80 rooms. San’in’s Golden Week demand appears to flow first to mid-to-large station-front hotels and flagship onsen ryokan, with small properties often landing with 1–2 rooms left in their published allotment.
Among high-rate properties that filled early, Kasuitei (華水亭, 79 rooms) in Kaike Onsen reached 0/79 remaining rooms at LT15 with sell-outs observed on 11 days in total; Misasa Onsen Izanro Iwasaki (三朝温泉 依山楼 岩崎, 79 rooms) reached 0/79 at LT14; and Kyokusui no Niwa Hotel Gyokusen (曲水の庭 ホテル玉泉, 124 rooms) in Tamatsukuri Onsen reached 0/124 at LT18. Among small properties, Yunokawa Onsen Yuyado Soan (湯の川温泉 湯宿 草菴, 10 rooms) reached 0/10 at LT30, with sell-outs continuing for 26 days in total. All have estimated settled ADRs above ¥20,000, showing that San’in onsen resorts can draw early bookings even at high rates.
Positioning Analysis — By ADR × Early Sell-Out LT, Hotel-Type Supply at ¥12,000–¥20,000 Is Thin
Now let us overlay the sell-out pattern on price bands. The scatter chart below plots the 99 properties with each property’s estimated settled ADR for May 2026 on the horizontal axis and early sell-out LT on the vertical axis. The 80 properties with no observed sell-out are placed along the bottom row.
The chart shows that sell-outs split into two peaks. On the left, under ¥12,000, nine hotel-type properties sold out, and the under-¥8,000 band had the earliest median early sell-out LT at 25.5. On the right, at ¥20,000+, six ryokan sold out, with a median of 16.5. In the ¥12,000–¥20,000 band in between, the four hotel-type sell-outs were concentrated late, at LT1–7, and none of the 21 ryokan and resorts sold out. Counting properties and rooms by price band gives the following table.
| Estimated settled ADR band | Properties | Rooms | Of which hotel-type | Of which ryokan / resort | Sell-outs | Sell-out rate | Median early sell-out LT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥8,000 | 19 | 977 | 13 properties / 861 rooms | 6 properties / 116 rooms | 4 | 21.1% | 25.5 |
| ¥8,000–¥12,000 | 29 | 1,250 | 12 properties / 952 rooms | 17 properties / 298 rooms | 5 | 17.2% | 9 |
| ¥12,000–¥20,000 | 26 | 1,158 | 5 properties / 546 rooms | 21 properties / 612 rooms | 4 | 15.4% | 5.5 |
| ¥20,000+ | 25 | 704 | — | 25 properties / 704 rooms | 6 | 24.0% | 16.5 |
| Total | 99 | 4,089 | 30 properties / 2,359 rooms | 69 properties / 1,730 rooms | 19 | 19.2% | 14 |
Hotel-type rooms are deep in the under-¥8,000 band (861 rooms) and the ¥8,000–¥12,000 band (952 rooms), but there are only 546 in the ¥12,000–¥20,000 band and none at ¥20,000+. Even so, 4 of the 5 hotel-type properties in the ¥12,000–¥20,000 band sold out — the highest share of any band on that measure alone. However, they filled late, 1–7 days before the stay date, so it is more reasonable to read this as a band chosen after the lower bands fill rather than one where bookings build early.
The ¥20,000+ band, meanwhile, has the highest sell-out rate of the four bands at 24.0%, and an early median early sell-out LT of 16.5. Yet the 25 properties in this band have a small median of 14 rooms, and a breakdown by size reveals a clear skew.
| Estimated settled ADR band | 29 rooms or fewer | 30–79 rooms | 80–149 rooms | 150+ rooms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥8,000 | 9 (0 sold out) | 6 (0 sold out) | 3 (3 sold out) | 1 (1 sold out) |
| ¥8,000–¥12,000 | 17 (1 sold out) | 6 (1 sold out) | 4 (1 sold out) | 2 (2 sold out) |
| ¥12,000–¥20,000 | 17 (0 sold out) | 3 (0 sold out) | 4 (3 sold out) | 2 (1 sold out) |
| ¥20,000+ | 17 (2 sold out) | 7 (3 sold out) | 1 (1 sold out) | — |
Properties at ¥20,000+ with 30 or more rooms number just 8 (517 rooms), and 4 of them sold out. Given that only 2 of the 17 properties with 29 rooms or fewer (187 rooms) sold out, high-rate demand tends to concentrate on onsen ryokan with a meaningful room count. Summing up, the price-band structure of the two San’in prefectures can be divided into the following three areas.
CrowdedUnder ¥12,000 × hotel-type
25 properties / 1,813 rooms
Holds 76.9% of hotel-type rooms. 7 of the 10 properties with 80+ rooms sold out, so demand is strong, but the 8 new properties (1,419 rooms) of 2024–2026 are also centered on this band, so a new entrant would compete head-to-head with existing properties.
Whitespace 1¥12,000–¥20,000 × hotel-type
5 properties / 546 rooms
23.1% of hotel-type rooms. All 4 properties with 80+ rooms sold out. In Matsue and Izumo this sits just above the city median, leaving room for limited-service hotels that earn rate through a large public bath or larger rooms.
Whitespace 2¥20,000+ × onsen ryokan with 30+ rooms
8 properties / 517 rooms
4 sold out 10–18 days before the stay date. The median room count across the band is 14, so high-rate properties of meaningful scale are scarce. Onsen resorts such as Kaike, Misasa and Tamatsukuri are candidates.
New Supply — 8 New Properties (1,419 Rooms) in 2024–2026 Pile Into the Under-¥12,000 Band
To confirm where the gaps lie, it is also worth checking which bands new supply is entering. Within MetroEngines Research’s coverage, 8 properties with 50+ rooms (1,419 rooms) were confirmed as opening in the two prefectures in 2024–2026 (Tottori 5 properties / 928 rooms, Shimane 3 / 491), all classified as business hotels. Of the 7 for which a September 2026 estimated settled ADR can be calculated, 6 are under ¥12,000 and only 1 falls in the ¥12,000–¥20,000 band. Most new rooms are being added on top of bands that are already deep. For supply from 2027 onward, Route Inn Grand Izumo: 244 Rooms Add 8.9% to Izumo’s Hotel Supply analyzes the addition relative to Izumo City’s total rooms based on published figures.
*Based on confirmed OTA listings. Listings appear several months before opening, so recent and future months may increase as more listings appear. Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (confirmed OTA listings, N=8 properties)
As for investor holdings, of the 337 properties held by listed hotel-focused and diversified REITs (9 investment corporations including Ichigo Hotel REIT (3463), Invincible Investment Corporation (8963), Nippon Hotel & Residential Investment Corporation (3472), Japan Hotel REIT (8985), Hoshino Resorts REIT (3287), Mori Trust REIT (8961) and Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT (401A); MetroEngines Research count as of November 2, 2026), only one can be confirmed from its name as located in the two San’in prefectures: Hoshino Resorts REIT’s KAI Tamatsukuri (界 玉造; 24 rooms, acquired July 2013 for ¥680M). The acquisition price of about ¥28.3M per room is a reference precedent for a high-rate onsen ryokan becoming an institutional investment holding.
Development Scenario — Placing 80 Rooms in Whitespace 1 Requires an ADR of ¥16,000–¥20,000
So what rate is needed to build an 80-room limited-service hotel in Whitespace 1? Assuming commercial land in front of Matsue Station, we compared three 80-room plans at different price points. Room sizes are set at 18 ㎡, 22 ㎡ and 26 ㎡; steel-frame construction cost at ¥2.2M, ¥2.405M and ¥2.6M per tsubo (3.3 ㎡); FF&E and pre-opening costs at 10% of construction cost; and land at 600 ㎡ × ¥175,000/㎡ = ¥105M.
| Item | A. Crowded band (ADR ¥10,000) | B. Whitespace 1 (ADR ¥17,000) Recommended | C. Upper band (ADR ¥20,000) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rooms / room size | 80 rooms / 18 ㎡ | 80 rooms / 22 ㎡ | 80 rooms / 26 ㎡ |
| Gross floor area | 2,118 ㎡ (641 tsubo) | 2,708 ㎡ (819 tsubo) | 3,355 ㎡ (1,015 tsubo) |
| Construction cost (2025 actual basis) | ¥1.409bn | ¥1.970bn | ¥2.639bn |
| Total investment (same basis) | ¥1.655bn | ¥2.272bn | ¥3.007bn |
| Assumed occupancy | 72% | 70% | 68% |
| Annual room revenue | ¥210M | ¥347M | ¥397M |
| GOP (GOP margin) | ¥105M (50%) | ¥156M (45%) | ¥159M (40%) |
| GOP yield (2025 actual basis) | 6.35% | 6.88% | 5.28% |
| Total investment (incl. construction inflation) | ¥1.900bn | ¥2.613bn | ¥3.465bn |
| GOP yield (same basis) | 5.53% | 5.98% | 4.58% |
| Simple payback (same basis) | 18.1 years | 16.7 years | 21.8 years |
For construction cost, we used the 2025 steel-frame cost of ¥2.405M per tsubo compiled by archi-book from MLIT’s Statistics on Building Construction Starts. In those statistics, the all-structure average for accommodation buildings rose +41% in two years, from ¥1.38M in 2022 to ¥1.95M in 2024, so further increases between construction start and opening need to be anticipated. This article therefore also shows a second set of figures assuming a 2029 opening with the construction midpoint in 2028, compounding +5% a year for three years. The GOP margin for Plan B is set at 45%. The GOP margin of the 91 domestic hotels operated by MHM and disclosed by Invincible Investment Corporation was 38.9% (fiscal period ended December 2024), and business hotels centered on room revenue are generally said to achieve relatively high GOP margins, so 45% was chosen as a level that exceeds this while remaining conservative.
Comparing the three, Plan B delivers the highest yield. Plan A keeps investment low but its rate is low, while Plan C cannot fully absorb the construction cost of larger rooms through its rate. Plan B’s yield is 6.88% on a 2025 actual basis and 5.98% including construction inflation. Rising construction costs weigh on returns, but they also tend to restrain subsequent new supply, which can ease the competitive environment for properties that open first.
Working back from target yields, the required ADR including construction inflation is ¥15,900 at an assumed full-year occupancy of 75% and ¥17,000 at 70% for a 6% GOP yield, and ¥18,600 at 75% and ¥19,900 at 70% for a 7% yield. On 2025 actual construction costs, the same conditions bring it down to ¥13,800–¥17,300. All fall within the Whitespace 1 band. The levels including construction inflation are higher than Matsue City’s September ADR of ¥12,000 and Izumo City’s May ADR of ¥14,000, so the condition for success is a full-year rate 30–70% above Matsue’s September level. Given that business-hotel occupancy in Japan Tourism Agency statistics (full-year 2025) was 68.5% in Tottori and 67.7% in Shimane, 70% is a sensible baseline for occupancy.
| Plan B sensitivity | Base case | ADR −10% | Occupancy −5pt | Both |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADR / occupancy | ¥17,000 / 70% | ¥15,300 / 70% | ¥17,000 / 65% | ¥15,300 / 65% |
| Annual room revenue | ¥347M | ¥313M | ¥323M | ¥290M |
| GOP | ¥156M | ¥141M | ¥145M | ¥131M |
| GOP yield (2025 actual basis) | 6.88% | 6.19% | 6.39% | 5.75% |
| GOP yield (incl. construction inflation) | 5.98% | 5.39% | 5.56% | 5.00% |
| ADR \ full-year occupancy (assumed) | 60% | 65% | 70% | 75% | 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ¥15,300 (−10%) | 4.62% | 5.00% | 5.39% | 5.77% | 6.16% |
| ¥16,150 (−5%) | 4.87% | 5.28% | 5.68% | 6.09% | 6.50% |
| ¥17,000 (base) | 5.13% | 5.56% | 5.98% | 6.41% | 6.84% |
| ¥17,850 (+5%) | 5.39% | 5.83% | 6.28% | 6.73% | 7.18% |
| ¥18,700 (+10%) | 5.64% | 6.11% | 6.58% | 7.05% | 7.52% |
Reading combinations of assumed full-year occupancy and ADR as three scenarios, the yield is 5.00% in the pessimistic case (ADR −10%, occupancy 65%), 5.98% in the middle case (¥17,000, 70%) and 7.05% in the optimistic case (ADR +10%, occupancy 75%). Of the 25 combinations, 12 secure a GOP yield of 6% or more, and the middle case sits on that boundary.
On sensitivity, a 10% fall in ADR lowers the yield by 0.6–0.7pt, and a 5pt fall in occupancy by 0.4–0.5pt. Within these ranges, rate has the larger impact; but because the calculation fixes the GOP margin at 45%, in practice costs do not fall in proportion when rates drop, so the yield decline tends to be larger than this. Even if both happen at once, the calculation holds 5.00% including construction inflation, but the margin of safety is not large. For the onsen ryokan format in Whitespace 2, F&B revenue from half-board stays and staffing levels drive returns, so it does not suit a simple room-revenue-only estimate. It is an area to examine through an individual feasibility study that includes acquisition and repositioning.
Investment Takeaways — Whitespace 1 in Matsue and Izumo; Acquisition and Renovation First in Tottori and Yonago
Applying the data above city by city, the direction splits two ways. Matsue and Izumo already have city ADRs around ¥12,000 and a track record of rising to ¥15,000–¥18,000 in November. With the shortest distance to the required ADR, they are the easiest locations in which to consider a new build in Whitespace 1. Tottori and Yonago, by contrast, have city ADRs around ¥8,000, roughly half the required ADR. Considering also that rooms within 3 km of their stations have grown +43.1% and +26.5% since 2017, acquiring existing properties and renovating them into the upper band should be considered before new builds.
| Point to check | Details | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Demand seasonality | Shimane ADR peaks in November and bottoms in June (¥9,000 in June 2026) | Design full-year ADR as a combination of peak-month upside and weekday corporate / leisure demand |
| Depth of the band’s track record | Only 5 hotel-type properties at ¥12,000–¥20,000, with sell-outs concentrated at LT1–7 | Given the small sample, a plan to raise rates in stages after opening is realistic |
| Construction cost | At +5% a year for three years, total investment rises from ¥2.272bn to ¥2.613bn | Construction timing moves the yield by about 0.9pt; procurement method and structure choice are key |
| New supply | 8 properties of 50+ rooms (1,419 rooms) in 2024–2026 | Centered on the under-¥12,000 band; keep monitoring whether followers move into the upper band |
| Range of estimates | Estimated settled ADR has a median error of about 7% against REIT-disclosed results | Hold off on a decision when the gap to the required ADR is around ¥1,000 |
The assumed schedule is site confirmation and schematic design in 2027, construction start in the second half of that year, and opening in spring 2029 after an 18-month build. As a next step, it would be useful to map competitors’ rates and room mix within a 1 km radius of each candidate site and decide whether a large public bath, breakfast or room size will be the lever to break through the ¥12,000 ceiling. Then, build up month-by-month rate results for November (including Kamiarizuki) and summer to test whether a full-year ADR of ¥16,000 is achievable.
Conclusion
During GW 2026 in Tottori and Shimane, 19 of the 155 properties in scope sold out. Sell-outs split into two peaks — hotel-type properties under ¥12,000 and onsen ryokan at ¥20,000+ — while in the ¥12,000–¥20,000 band between them, hotel-type supply was a thin 5 properties with 546 rooms, 4 of which filled. In the ¥20,000+ band, too, only 8 properties have 30 or more rooms, yet half of them sold out early.
Modeling a new 80-room build, the required ADR including construction inflation is ¥16,000–¥20,000, close to the peak-month results of Matsue and Izumo. The investment opportunity in San’in lies not in adding rooms to the already-deep band around ¥10,000, but in bringing in a product that can command rates one step above it. Rate movements heading into Kamiarizuki in November will likely be the first test of whether that is feasible.
⚠ Note on ADR for future dates: The estimated settled ADRs in this article are estimates calculated from selling prices published on OTAs at the time of the survey, and will change as the check-in date approaches. Please note that prices currently set high may fall with last-minute discounting.
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- Kamiari Festival Nov 18: Izumo 100% OCC from T-45, Matsue Has Rooms
- Route Inn Grand Izumo: 244 Rooms Add 8.9% to Izumo’s Hotel Supply
- ADR Band Whitespace 2026: ¥6-10k Sells Out First, New Supply ¥20k+
References and Sources
■ Data sources
MetroEngines Research OTA public-price and remaining-room data (area-level estimated settled ADR as property medians, January 2025–December 2026), property-level remaining-room trajectories (stay date May 2, 2026; 155 properties with a published allotment of 30%+; 99 properties in the price-band analysis), booking curves (lead time within 45 days), and room stock within 3 km of four stations (as of November 6, 2026). Public statistics are from the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (full-year 2025, final), and land prices and zoning from the MLIT Real Estate Information Library.
■ Estimate assumptions
New 80-room build (Plan B: 22 ㎡ rooms, guest-room share 65%, gross floor area 2,708 ㎡), steel-frame cost ¥2.405M per tsubo, FF&E and pre-opening costs at 10% of construction cost, land 600 ㎡ × ¥175,000/㎡, opening in 2029 (construction cost compounded at +5% a year for three years — an assumption of this article), GOP margin 45%, occupancy 70% (assumed full-year value). Yield = annual GOP ÷ total investment. Revenue is room revenue only, excluding F&B and other revenue.
■ Limitations
The sell-out analysis is based on a single stay date in GW 2026 (May 2) and does not represent full-year demand. Remaining rooms are values within the published allotment and do not mean the entire property is full. Price bands are classified by the estimated settled ADR for May 2026 (which includes GW), while the bands of new supply use the September 2026 ADR, so some properties fall into different bands in other months. Hotel-type properties at ¥12,000–¥20,000 are a small sample (N=5), so their sell-out share is indicative only. The estimates are simple sensitivities with a constant GOP margin; GOP margins tend to fall when rates decline. GOP yield is before deducting property tax, insurance, FF&E reserves, management fees and the like, so NOI yield will be lower. Floor-area ratios are designated values and do not reflect restrictions such as frontage road width. The median error of the estimated settled ADR is about 7% (against REIT-disclosed results).
■ Market data
- MetroEngines Research & Consulting — estimated settled ADR (Tottori N=140–154, Shimane N=163–181, eight main municipalities), property-level remaining-room trajectories (stay date May 2, 2026; 155 properties with a published allotment of 30%+), booking curves and occupancy (OTA-listed-inventory basis, estimated), room stock within 3 km of four stations (as of November 2026), new openings (confirmed OTA listings)
■ Government statistics and public data
- Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2025, full-year, final)” (published July 6, 2026)
- Japan Tourism Agency, “Overnight Travel Statistics Survey”
- MLIT Real Estate Information Library — Official Land Price Publication, Prefectural Land Price Survey, zoning
- MLIT, “Statistics on Building Construction Starts”
■ REIT and industry materials
- Hoshino Resorts REIT, “Portfolio List” (Japanese)
- Invincible Investment Corporation, “Hotel Portfolio” (GOP results, Japanese)
- archi-book, “Construction Cost per Tsubo, 2025 Edition” (cost per tsubo by structure based on construction-start statistics, Japanese)
- Relo Hotel Solutions, “What Is GOP?” (GOP margin trends by hotel type, Japanese)
■ Event schedule