In central and southern Okinawa Island, where hotel sites have become increasingly hard to acquire, there is essentially only one route through which large, contiguous parcels will newly come onto the market: land returned from US military bases. Under the 2013 “Consolidation Plan for Facilities and Areas in Okinawa,” more than 1,000 hectares south of Kadena Air Base are scheduled to be returned (Cabinet Office). This article reads that returned land not as a question of “Okinawa’s supply and demand” but as a primary supply route — “where will development land come from?” — and uses actual data to quantify how thin the current room stock is in Urasoe and Ginowan, the two cities that host these sites.

How This Article Differs from Our Previous Coverage — Not Volume, Not Downtown, Not the Outer Islands

HotelBank has covered the Okinawa hotel market from several angles. To avoid confusion, we first clarify where this article sits.

For developers searching for land, operating companies participating in redevelopment of the returned sites, and regional banks and funds underwriting Okinawa projects, the question is not “does Okinawa have enough rooms?” It is “when, where, and on what terms will large parcels of land come out?” The urban areas of central and southern Okinawa are already dense, and vacant lots of several hectares rarely trade. That is precisely why returned base land matters as a primary supply route.

Returned Base Land as Primary Supply — Four Sites Confirmed in Public Data

Among the returned (or to-be-returned) sites in central and southern Okinawa, we summarize the major ones whose area, timing, and redevelopment direction can be confirmed in public documents. All figures below are taken directly from published national, prefectural, and municipal materials; no estimates are included.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from Cabinet Office “Promotion of Utilization of Former US Military Land” and published materials of Ginowan City, Urasoe City, and Okinawa Prefecture

Three points stand out. First, a precedent model that has already been “implemented” exists. The West Futenma Housing Area was returned in 2015 and handed over in 2018; in 2025 the University of the Ryukyus Hospital opened and its Faculty of Medicine began classes. This gives a measured figure of about 10 years from return to use. Second, Urasoe alone hosts a returned site equivalent to about 14% of its city area. Its site utilization plan was adopted in 2024, so the administrative preparation is already well advanced. Third, the return of the Naha Port Facility is tied to its relocation to the Urasoe Pier district, meaning the western coastlines of Naha and Urasoe move as a single project. How to monetize the returned sites themselves as development projects is covered separately in our analysis of central Okinawa, Central Okinawa US Military Site Hotels: The Final Mega-Development & 3-in-1 Revenue Model.

From a land-acquisition standpoint, the most important point is that much of this land is privately owned. The Makiminato Service Area, covered by Urasoe’s site utilization plan, will change hands only after coordination with landowners and land readjustment following its return. In other words, the return date is not the date the land becomes acquirable. West Futenma’s timeline — “returned 2015 → handed over 2018 → facility opened 2025” — is the only measured sample showing that realistic lead time. For the option of structuring a project on leased land rather than ownership, our analysis back-calculating the maximum supportable ground rent across 9 markets provides useful reference points.

Room Stock in the Two Host Cities Is 1/23 and 1/149 of Naha’s

So how many rooms sit on top of — or next to — this land today? Within the scope tracked by MetroEngines Research, we tallied the room stock of operating properties by municipality across central and southern Okinawa Island (as of September 2026).

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (12 municipalities in central and southern Okinawa Island, operating properties N=456, as of September 2026). Chart shows total rooms (all formats) on a logarithmic scale; labels are in Japanese — see Table 3 for English names.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (master tally of operating properties, as of September 2026). “Hotels only” is the total of business hotels, city hotels, and resort hotels. The returned-base-land column is based on published materials of the Cabinet Office, Okinawa Prefecture, and each city.

The numbers are clear. Urasoe’s room stock is 111 rooms across 14 properties of all formats, or just 43 rooms across 4 properties when limited to hotels. That is 1/149 of Naha’s 16,614 rooms, and only about one-sixth of neighboring Ginowan’s 715 rooms. Ginowan, too, has only 715 rooms across 22 properties of all formats and 583 rooms across 7 hotels — 1/23 of Naha. For cities with populations around 100,000, both are extremely thin.

A note on the figures behind this theme: the “7 properties in Urasoe, 12 in Ginowan” that prompted this article were re-tallied independently, and we confirmed that the values change depending on how the population is defined. Limited to properties whose prices are continuously observed on OTAs, there were 7 in Urasoe and 16 in Ginowan as of July 2026; among operating properties in the property master, 14 in Urasoe and 22 in Ginowan; and restricted to the hotel formats, 4 in Urasoe and 7 in Ginowan. This article presents two series side by side: “hotels only,” the most conservative and clearly defined in use, and “all formats,” which is the most comparable. Whichever basis is used, the conclusion does not change: these two cities are the thinnest areas for rooms in central and southern Okinawa.

There is a reason for this thinness. About 14% of Urasoe’s city area is occupied by the Makiminato Service Area, and its western coast is the Urasoe Pier district — the relocation destination for the Naha Port Facility. In other words, the waterfront and arterial-road frontage that would be most valuable as hotel locations have been base and port land. In Ginowan, too, MCAS Futenma occupies about 25% of the city area. Rooms are scarce not because demand is absent but because there has structurally been no land on which to supply them. Conversely, as returns progress, this is exactly where room for new supply will emerge.

Prefecture-Wide Occupancy Hit 91.0% in July — Demand Is Waiting for Redevelopment

Before turning to land, let us confirm the level of demand. Overlaying Okinawa Prefecture’s estimated settled ADR year by year shows the summer peak rising each year: about ¥11,700 in July 2024, about ¥12,800 in July 2025, and about ¥13,700 in July 2026.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (Okinawa Prefecture, estimated settled ADR, N=481–508 properties per month, finalized months from July 2024 to August 2026). Chart lines: 2024 (grey), 2025 (light blue), 2026 (blue), by month (Jan–Dec).

Occupancy is also high. Okinawa Prefecture’s occupancy rate in July 2026 (estimated, based on OTA-listed inventory) was 91.0% across all properties (1,083 properties, 51,693 rooms), versus 87.3% in June and 87.8% in August. By format, city hotels were at 93.4%, resort hotels 91.7%, and business hotels 91.6% — all above 90%.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (Okinawa Prefecture, July 2026, estimated occupancy based on OTA-listed inventory). These are estimates based on how inventory sold on OTAs is absorbed, and differ from each property’s actual overall occupancy.

Price-Band Map — Ginowan Sits Between Chatan and Naha; Urasoe Lacks Even a Measurable Sample

Next, we look at which price band the host areas currently occupy. The average estimated settled ADR over the most recent 12 months (September 2025 to August 2026) is as follows.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (estimated settled ADR, average of the most recent 12 months = September 2025 to August 2026; number of properties shown under each bar). Bars from left: Onna, Chatan, Ginowan, Urasoe, Naha, Kitanakagusuku, Okinawa City.

Ginowan stands at about ¥13,700 (N=5 properties), between Chatan at about ¥15,700 (N=23–25) and Naha at about ¥10,100 (N=136–141). Onna Village, the flagship of the west-coast resort area, is at about ¥20,500 (N=38–42), 1.5 times Ginowan.

A caveat is needed here: Urasoe’s estimated settled ADR is based on only 1–2 properties and is not stable as an indicator. As a reference value, its 12-month average is about ¥12,200, but at this sample size a single property’s price change moves the area figure directly, and it is not precise enough to support investment decisions. This in itself supports the argument of this article. Urasoe is “a market without even enough properties to build a price index.” The market is not thin — it has not yet been established.

On the Map — Returned Sites vs. Existing Rooms

We overlaid existing lodging properties in Urasoe and Ginowan with the locations of the returned sites. Circle size represents room count. The map shows visually that Ginowan’s rooms are concentrated in the Ginowan Convention area on the west coast, while Urasoe has only small properties scattered along National Route 58.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (property locations and room counts); Cabinet Office, Okinawa Prefecture, and municipal materials (site locations). Blue dots = existing lodging properties (circle = room count); dashed circles = returned sites / relocation destination (approximate locations).

Of Ginowan’s 583 hotel rooms, the top two properties alone account for 480. The West Futenma Housing Area lies inland on the city’s east side, where a new demand generator — the University of the Ryukyus Hospital — began operating in January 2025. Medical institutions generate lodging demand from patients’ families, healthcare workers, and academic conference attendees, yet Ginowan’s current room stock is skewed toward the west coast. West Futenma is an area where the conditions for an “urban clinic-adjacent” medical-stay hotel are increasingly coming together.

In Urasoe, the land between National Route 58 and the west coast is the Makiminato Service Area, and existing properties are squeezed onto the east side of Route 58. If the Urasoe Pier district moves forward, a large block of development land will emerge on the waterfront within a 20-minute drive of Naha Airport.

Land Prices Are Moving First — Urasoe Commercial +7.14%, Ginowan +8.89%

Land prices in these two cities are rising even before the primary supply of land comes into view. In the 2026 official land price publication, Urasoe’s average commercial land price was ¥274,000/㎡, up 7.14% year on year, and its average residential land price was ¥164,416/㎡, up 5.07%. Ginowan’s municipal rate of change was +8.89%, among the highest in the prefecture, and the top residential gainer was Nodake 3-chome in Ginowan at +18.6%. Residential land across Okinawa Prefecture rose 6.4%, ranking 8th nationwide.

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) “Official Land Prices” (2026); Okinawa Times “[Okinawa Official Land Prices 2026] Land price growth ranking”; Tochidai Data (aggregation based on MLIT official land prices)

That land prices are rising ahead of time is a headwind in terms of acquisition cost, but it is also a signal that the market has begun to price in the future potential of the returned sites. We have back-calculated the land-price ceiling at which hotel use remains feasible in a separate analysis, and competition for land with condominium use is also a realistic issue in central and southern Okinawa. The standout rise in Ginowan’s residential land can be read as a reflection of the returned land being valued first for residential and medical uses. When pursuing land for hotel use, the business case must be built on the assumption of competing with residential and commercial uses.

One 200-Room Project Planned in Urasoe — 1.8x the Current Stock

Checking the current construction pipeline using MLIT’s “Building Construction Dynamics Statistics,” among projects registered for hotel use in Okinawa Prefecture, the only one in central and southern Okinawa is a single project in Nishihara 6-chome, Urasoe (200 rooms, 17 stories above ground, total floor area 20,700㎡; construction started April 2023, scheduled completion July 2026).

This single project carries significant weight. Urasoe’s current room stock is 111 rooms across all formats, so just one 200-room property coming online would increase the city’s room count by about 2.8 times. Limited to hotels, 43 rooms would become 243 — 5.7 times. In other words, Urasoe is so thin that a single building decision rewrites the structure of the market itself. For first movers, it is an environment where a pioneer premium can be captured; on the other hand, it should be factored in that if a second or third building enters at the same time, the supply-demand balance will shift abruptly.

*Based on building confirmation applications as of the time of research. Confirmation applications are typically filed 1–2 years before opening, so the number of projects and rooms is expected to increase as further applications are added. Please treat this as the lower bound of the confirmed pipeline at this point.

Note that the issue of whether a site lies inside or outside an urbanization promotion area — and which zoning designation applies — affecting opening schedules is not unique to Okinawa. Nationwide, 61% of 2026 hotel openings sit outside urbanization promotion areas, where development permits and farmland conversion lengthen the time to opening; this is a useful reference point when estimating the lead time for redeveloping returned base land.

Source: Compiled by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from MLIT “Building Construction Dynamics Statistics”

Feasibility Sensitivity — Three Lead-Time Scenarios and ADR × OCC

All figures so far are “facts observable today.” What those pursuing land actually need to judge are the two questions beyond that: when can the land be acquired and at what level will the hotel perform. The following is a sensitivity framework based solely on the published and measured values confirmed in this article; it is not a financial forecast for any specific project.

1. Lead Time — Three Scenarios from Return to Room Supply

For redevelopment of returned base land in Okinawa, only one sample — the West Futenma Housing Area — can be observed end to end from return to actual facility operation. Placing its measured timeline (returned March 2015, handed over March 2018, anchor facility — the University of the Ryukyus Hospital — operating in 2025) as the base case and flexing up and down gives the following.

Assumptions: Compiled by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from the return, handover, and operation record of the West Futenma Housing Area (Ginowan City), the Makiminato Service Area Site Utilization Plan (Urasoe City, 2024), and the history of the Naha Port Facility relocation (Okinawa Prefecture). There is only one measured sample, so these are estimated ranges.

The practical implication is clear. Even in the base case, one should expect roughly 10 years from getting involved at the acquisition stage of a site with a published return schedule to opening. Conversely, building MCAS Futenma or the Naha Port Facility — whose return depends on relocation — into a business-plan timeline is not viable at present. What can realistically be pursued is effectively limited to the Makiminato Service Area, where a site utilization plan is in place and partial returns have begun, and the remaining use allocations at the already-handed-over West Futenma Housing Area.

2. ADR × OCC — RevPAR Sensitivity by Room Rate and Annual Occupancy

Next, we set out on two axes the performance level of a hotel operated on such land. The rate axis follows the market levels confirmed in this article: within the range from Naha’s approximately ¥10,100 to Onna’s approximately ¥20,500, we step through ¥10,000 to ¥18,000, the band realistically targeted by sites on returned land in central and southern Okinawa. The occupancy axis is on an annual basis. The prefecture-wide 91.0% is a value for July 2026, a peak month, and must not be substituted as an annual assumption (June’s 87.3% and August’s 87.8% of the same year are both summer months). On an annual basis including winter, read the table on the assumption that occupancy will fall below this band.

Top line = RevPAR (per room per night); bottom line = annualized room revenue (RevPAR × 365 days, per room). The shaded cell is the midpoint (ADR ¥14,000 × annual OCC 80% (estimate, as of 2026, annual assumption)). The rate range is based on market levels of the estimated settled ADR by MetroEngines Research & Consulting (most recent 12 months = September 2025 to August 2026).

*This table covers room revenue only. It excludes ancillary revenue (F&B, banquets, parking, etc.), operating expenses, land acquisition costs, construction costs, and financing terms entirely. NOI, yield, or IRR therefore cannot be read directly from it. It is not a financial forecast for any specific project, but a calculation showing how much the choice of rate and occupancy moves room revenue.

At the midpoint (ADR ¥14,000 × annual OCC 80% (estimate, as of 2026, annual assumption)), RevPAR is ¥11,200 and annual room revenue per room is about ¥4.09 million. Using Ginowan’s market rate of about ¥13,700, a 5-point swing in annual OCC moves annual revenue by about ¥250,000 per room. For a 200-room property, that is a difference of roughly ¥50 million per year; the feasibility of a site on returned land is more sensitive to how much annual occupancy can be built up than to the rate level. Building an annual plan from the summer peak alone means taking this swing head-on.

Urasoe requires a further caveat. Its estimated settled ADR is based on only 1–2 properties, so the rate axis of this table cannot be read as Urasoe’s market level. Neighboring Ginowan’s approximately ¥13,700 and Naha’s approximately ¥10,100 serve as the realistic upper and lower bounds.

Practical Issues for Land Seekers — Five Checkpoints

Translating the data so far into land-acquisition practice boils down to the following five points.

Summary

When searching for hotel land in central and southern Okinawa Island, chasing the urban areas’ circulating inventory has its limits. The route through which large new parcels emerge is effectively concentrated in the more than 1,000 hectares of returned base land under the Consolidation Plan. And the room stock of Urasoe and Ginowan, the cities hosting that land, is just 111 and 715 rooms respectively across all formats, or 43 and 583 rooms in hotels — 1/149 and 1/23 of Naha.

The thinness is not due to weak demand. Prefecture-wide estimated occupancy reached 91.0% in July 2026, and the summer peak of the estimated settled ADR has risen by about ¥2,000 in two years. Supply simply has not structurally occurred because the most valuable locations — the waterfront and arterial-road frontage — were base and port land. Return is the only primary supply route that lifts that constraint, and the West Futenma Housing Area, a measured sample of “about 10 years from return to use,” provides a benchmark for that lead time.

The practical conclusion for land seekers is clear. Waiting to act until tradable land comes onto the market is too late. Get involved from the stage when use quotas under the site utilization plan are decided, and align the business plan with the land readjustment schedule. Land prices are already moving ahead, and that timeline will not wait.

Related Reading

• Okinawa 2026: 2,842 New Rooms, 0.6% Business vs 22.1% City Inventory
• Okinawa’s 2% Lodging Tax: ¥60–¥340 per Guest Night by Municipality
• Central Okinawa US Military Site Hotels: The Final Mega-Development & 3-in-1 Revenue Model
• Leasehold Hotel Development: 1.38x Land Price Reach Across 9 Markets
• Hotel vs Condo Land Rivalry: ADR-Implied Feasible Land Price Map
• Autumn on Japan’s Islands: 2.37x ADR Gap Across 10 Municipalities