Hotel rates in Kagawa Prefecture cannot be captured by a single prefecture-wide average. Breaking MetroEngines Research data down to the municipal level, the estimated settled ADR for June 2026 (actual basis) ranges from roughly ¥46,200 in Naoshima at the top to roughly ¥4,900 in Sakaide at the bottom — a gap of about 9.4x within one prefecture. And these tiers do not all lift uniformly heading into autumn; each rises at a distinctly different angle. This article organizes Kagawa’s 16 municipalities into four price tiers and overlays last autumn’s actuals with this autumn’s outlook to read where the remaining upside sits, tier by tier.

Kagawa’s 16 municipalities split into four price tiers

Lining up the June 2026 estimated settled ADR (actual basis) by municipality, the values are not distributed continuously — they cluster into four groups separated by clear steps. The largest step sits between Naoshima (roughly ¥46,200) and Manno (roughly ¥23,700), a difference of about ¥22,500. Next comes a step of about ¥6,500 between Shodoshima (roughly ¥16,600) and Kotohira (roughly ¥10,100), followed by a step of about ¥1,900 between Tonosho (roughly ¥9,100) and Takamatsu (roughly ¥7,200). Cutting on those three steps, Kagawa’s accommodation rate structure organizes into the following four tiers.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (June 2026 actual basis)

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (June 2026, estimated settled ADR; figures in parentheses are the number of properties in scope, n)

Within Tier 4, 11 municipalities cluster in a band from ¥4,900 to ¥7,200, with almost no difference between them. Structurally, the rate spread inside the prefecture is generated almost entirely by the five municipalities in Tiers 1 through 3. Put differently, the levers that move rates in Kagawa are concentrated in the islands and the shrine town. Such intra-prefecture gaps are not unique to Kagawa — comparable range differences are observed across every prefecture in Japan. We covered that nationwide spread in Japan Intra-Prefecture ADR Gaps Reach 5.2x: 368 Municipalities Ranked.

“Number of properties” has a dual structure — Naoshima’s 37 listed properties versus 3 in scope

There is one premise that cannot be skipped when reading this tier map: municipal aggregates contain two different property counts side by side. The number of properties aggregated for published prices is not the same as the number in scope for estimated settled ADR. Estimated settled ADR is calculated only for verified categories to which category-specific correction coefficients can be applied (business, city, resort, ryokan, capsule), so in areas with many pensions, minshuku and guesthouses, the calculation scope narrows sharply.

That divergence is most extreme in Naoshima. As of June 2026, 37 properties are aggregated for published prices, while only 3 fall within the estimated settled ADR scope. Moreover, the published-price average is roughly ¥20,600 while estimated settled ADR is roughly ¥46,200 — a large divergence in the opposite direction from the usual pattern. This stems from the difference in population mix: the small lodgings that make up most of the island’s 37 properties are included on the published-price side but not in the estimated settled ADR calculation. In fact, the 47 properties and 258 rooms we track in Naoshima average just 5.5 rooms per property, confirming that the island’s accommodation supply is centered on small lodgings.

Naoshima’s figure of roughly ¥46,200 therefore needs to be read as “the level of the 3 properties in scope,” not as “the typical accommodation rate across the island.” For a sense of the island average, the published-price basis of roughly ¥20,600 (37 properties aggregated) is closer to reality.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

A further caution: Naoshima’s calculation scope shrinks from 3 properties in June 2026 to just 1 property in October and November. The October outlook of roughly ¥24,000 for Naoshima is likewise the value of a single property in scope and cannot be compared directly with the June figure drawn from 3 properties. This decline does not indicate weakening demand; it is better understood as an apparent movement caused by turnover in the calculation scope. For reference, estimated settled ADR was not calculated at all for Naoshima in October and November 2025, so this island’s rates are an area where stable comparison across seasons is difficult.

For the same reason, Manno also requires careful handling. Its published-price aggregation covers 2–3 properties, and its estimated settled ADR scope is a single property across the entire period. The June figure of roughly ¥23,700 is the level of one specific property and cannot be called “the Manno average.” Throughout this article, Naoshima and Manno are treated as reference values and excluded from definitive municipality-to-municipality comparison. Tadotsu (1 property in scope), Zentsuji (1), Miki (2), Higashikagawa (2), Sanuki (3) and Utazu (3) are treated as reference values as well.

Municipal data table — actuals, outlook and supply scale

Note: “reference” marks municipalities where the estimated settled ADR scope is 3 properties or fewer, or where population bias is large enough to warrant caution in reading the figure as a municipal average. October and November are outlooks based on listed levels at the time of the survey, not actuals. Property and room counts are aggregated across properties with registered room counts within the scope MetroEngines Research tracks. Ayagawa is excluded from the table because it has no properties in the estimated settled ADR scope.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research

Autumn lift-off differs completely by tier — last year’s actuals show a roughly 5x slope gap

This is the core of the article. Rates across Kagawa’s municipalities do not rise in unison heading into autumn. The angle of lift-off differs clearly from tier to tier.

First, a note on aligning the basis of comparison. Estimated settled ADR has two bases: actual, once a month has closed and the figure switches to a verified basis, and outlook, calculated from listed levels at the time of the survey. June 2026 is an actual; July onward is an outlook, so comparisons that cross this boundary carry a basis difference. Indeed, for Kagawa as a whole, 2025 moved from roughly ¥7,200 in June to roughly ¥7,700 in October, a rise of +7.5% (both on an actual basis), whereas 2026 moves from roughly ¥7,100 in June to roughly ¥10,900 in October, +54.4% (actual to outlook) — an apparently order-of-magnitude larger increase. A substantial part of that difference is likely attributable to the basis difference and to the composition of inventory still remaining at the time of the survey. To read the shape of the season itself, the reliable approach is to look at last year’s trajectory, where actuals can be compared with actuals.

We therefore indexed estimated settled ADR from June to December, setting June 2025 = 100 (all on an actual basis). The result was unambiguous.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (2025, estimated settled ADR all on an actual basis, June 2025 = 100)

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (2025, estimated settled ADR on an actual basis)

Tiers 2 and 3, driven primarily by leisure demand, lift into autumn at an angle of +45% to +75% versus June. Tier 4 — the prefectural capital and regional cities — stays within +8% to +15%: Takamatsu +14.7%, Kanonji +13.4%, Marugame +8.1%. Within the same prefecture, autumn elasticity differs by roughly 5x. Tier 4 is structured to capture business and wide-area travel demand steadily throughout the year, and the smaller seasonal swing can equally be read as room to raise rates during event periods that has simply been left on the table. This split between leisure destinations and the prefectural capital is common to other prefectures as well; we verified it under the same four-tier framework in Gunma Hotel Market 2026: Four ADR Tiers and a ¥5,700 Upper-Mid Gap.

Another point of interest is that peak months shift by tier. Across the two autumn months, Kotohira and Tonosho run higher in October, while Shodoshima peaks clearly in November. This one-month offset aligns almost exactly with the autumn event calendar discussed below. One caveat: Sakaide belongs to Tier 4 yet shows a relatively large +53.8% rise, but its calculation scope narrows to 8 properties in October, so the figure may include the effect of turnover in the underlying population.

Autumn 2026 outlook — Tier 3 moves into the ¥15,000–¥18,000 band

The chart below plots estimated settled ADR in absolute yen for the same municipalities, from June 2026 (actual) through December (outlook). July onward is an outlook based on listed levels at the time of the survey and rests on a different basis from the actuals, so the step up from June cannot be read directly as demand growth. What deserves attention here is the relative positioning between municipalities.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (June 2026 is an actual; July onward is an outlook based on listed levels at the time of the survey)

On an outlook basis, October brings Tonosho to roughly ¥17,700 (8 properties in scope) and Kotohira to roughly ¥14,700 (14 properties) — both well above the Tier 3 band. In November, Shodoshima reaches roughly ¥30,300 (7 properties), close to double its June level of roughly ¥16,600. Takamatsu, the prefectural capital, also steps up from roughly ¥7,200 in June to roughly ¥11,300 in October (69 properties) and roughly ¥10,600 in November (65 properties). With a scope as deep as 69 and 65 properties, Takamatsu’s outlook ranks among the most reliable in the prefecture.

The pattern last year’s actuals revealed — Tier 3 holding high through autumn, Tier 2 peaking in November — carries through into the 2026 outlook. Kotohira sits at nearly the same level in October and November (roughly ¥14,700 and roughly ¥15,000), while Shodoshima stands out in November. The difference in peak month by tier is best treated as a recurring structure rather than a one-year coincidence.

Geographic distribution of supply — price tier and room scale are inversely correlated

To understand the price tiers one level deeper, we mapped the distribution of supply. Circle size represents each property’s room count (square-root scale) and color indicates its price tier. The map plots the 554 properties in Kagawa with registered room counts within the scope we track.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (N=554 properties)

What the map shows is an inverse correlation: the higher a municipality’s rates, the smaller its circles. Takamatsu has 163 properties and 7,714 rooms, averaging 47.3 rooms per property, and Marugame has 27 properties and 1,624 rooms, averaging 60.1 — the prefecture’s room stock is concentrated in the urban areas along the Seto Inland Sea. By contrast, top-rate Naoshima has 47 properties and 258 rooms, averaging 5.5 rooms, and Shodoshima has 45 properties and 592 rooms, averaging 13.2: few rooms relative to the number of properties.

In other words, in Kagawa the areas that hold room scale and the areas that command rates are almost entirely separated. That separation is precisely what creates the price-band gap examined next.

White space in scale × rate — the gap above ¥12,000 at mid scale

Plotting average rooms per property on the horizontal axis, June 2026 estimated settled ADR on the vertical axis, and property count as circle size, Kagawa’s municipalities fall into a clear L-shape.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from MetroEngines Research (June 2026, estimated settled ADR; circle size = number of properties)

Two gaps stand out in this chart.

For Gap 1, the autumn outlook offers a clue. In October and November, Tonosho reaches roughly ¥17,700–¥18,700, Kotohira roughly ¥14,700–¥15,000, and Shodoshima roughly ¥30,300 in November — several municipalities climb to around ¥15,000 and above. That means demand accepts this price band at the seasonal peak, and there is upside in product design that can sustain the level year-round. Kotohira, with 26.1 rooms on average across 33 properties and 862 rooms, holds comparatively consolidated room stock for a leisure area in the prefecture — an advantage as a starting point for filling this gap.

Gap 2 points to room for products that raise the value of a stay in the islands. In Naoshima, small lodgings account for most of the supply, and within that 5.5-room average structure a handful of properties achieve levels above ¥40,000. If depth were to emerge in the band between, it would be an opportunity to widen the range of visitors the island as a whole can host. On that front, the opening of edit x seven Setouchi Shodoshima — the first new hotel on Shodoshima in 34 years — is an instructive example of a property capable of carrying a new price band in the islands.

Autumn 2026 demand calendar — three axes that explain the offset peaks

The offset in peak months by tier corresponds precisely to Kagawa’s autumn event calendar. All of the following was confirmed against primary sources.

Source: Compiled by the HotelBank Editorial Team from Kotohira-gu “Annual Events at Kotohira-gu, Reiwa 8 (2026)”, information published by Shodoshima Town and Kankakei Ropeway, information published by the Setouchi Triennale, and information published by Benesse Art Site Naoshima

One important clarification. The Setouchi Triennale is held once every three years; the most recent main edition was in 2025, and 2026 is not a main edition year. Autumn 2026 demand in the islands will therefore be supported not by the festival itself, but by year-round art facilities and natural scenery. On that point, the regular public openings of indoor artworks beginning in FY2026 deserve attention. Until now, opportunities to view indoor exhibits outside the festival period were limited to long holidays such as Golden Week and Obon; with regular openings, viewing becomes possible on the second Saturday and Sunday of each month from May to November on Shodoshima, Megijima and Ogijima, and every Saturday, Sunday, Monday and public holiday on Teshima. In addition, the Setouchi Asia Gallery on Shodoshima has announced a “Special Exhibition 2026,” which may create a fresh reason to visit the islands in a non-festival year.

Kotohira’s October peak matches the Grand Festival (October 9–11); Tonosho’s elevated level through October and November matches its role as the gateway for island crossings; and Shodoshima’s November peak matches the Kankakei foliage season — each aligning month for month. That the peaks in the data line up this closely with the event calendar shows that Kagawa’s autumn accommodation demand has clear anchors.

Conclusion — four tiers the prefectural average hides, and different plays for each

Kagawa’s prefecture-wide estimated settled ADR stood at roughly ¥7,100 in June 2026 (162 properties in scope), essentially flat against roughly ¥7,200 the same month a year earlier. Yet inside that single figure sit four tiers separated by a 9.4x rate gap between municipalities and by autumn slopes that differ about 5x. Watch the prefectural average alone and this structure is invisible.

Organized by tier, the direction of play diverges as follows. Tiers 2 and 3 showed autumn elasticity of +45% to +75% versus June on last year’s actuals, so product design aimed at the peak months (October–November for Kotohira, November for Shodoshima) works readily. Tier 4 swings only +8% to +15% across the year; that stability means the room to capture event-period demand remains fully intact as upside. Takamatsu carries the prefecture’s deepest population at 69 properties in scope, and with its October outlook of roughly ¥11,300 stepping up from a June actual of roughly ¥7,200, the groundwork is there to translate autumn demand into rate.

Across the prefecture as a whole, the range that combines scale and rate — an average of 25+ rooms with ADR above ¥12,000 — is entirely vacant. At the autumn peak, several municipalities reach around ¥15,000 and above, so demand willing to accept that band demonstrably exists. A product that can sustain it year-round is the single largest remaining opportunity in Kagawa’s accommodation market.

Related reading

• Japan Intra-Prefecture ADR Gaps Reach 5.2x: 368 Municipalities Ranked
• Mandarin Oriental Setouchi — ¥298M/Room Investment Yield Analysis
• Supply Absorption Capacity in 8 Regional Core Cities — GW2026 Sellout Rate × New Openings Map
• Gunma Hotel Market 2026: Four ADR Tiers and a ¥5,700 Upper-Mid Gap
• Golf Town Hotels: ¥5,200–¥21,300 Autumn ADR Across 15 Municipalities