In Ginza, building plans whose principal use is hotel have piled up on 16 sites. Scheduled completions run from December 2026 to March 2030, and total floor area comes to 106,604 m². Of that, 99,094 m², or 93.0%, is concentrated on 10 sites due for completion in the second half of 2028 or later. Over the same period, the 2026 Prefectural Land Price Survey put the benchmark site in Ginza 2-chome at ¥52.5M per m² (+11.9% YoY). This article organizes the plans site by site, converts Ginza’s land prices—which vary more than tenfold even within Ginza—into “land cost per room,” and works backward to the average daily rate (ADR) each of limited-service and full-service hotels would require. Finally, it overlays those required levels on the rate distribution of the 39 hotels and 6,902 rooms already in Ginza to show which hotel types offer investment opportunities in which land-price bands.

Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting / MLIT Building Dynamics Statistics Survey / MLIT Prefectural Land Price Survey (as of July 1, 2026)

Ginza’s pipeline: 16 sites, 106,604 m² — consolidating duplicate rows into sites

From building plan data based on the MLIT Building Dynamics Statistics Survey and other sources, we extracted hotel-use plans located in Ginza, Chuo-ku, with scheduled completion in October 2026 or later. Because the same site is often registered in 2–4 rows owing to different lot-number notations (e.g., “Ginza 7-16-3” and “Ginza 7-205-1”) or different information sources, we merged rows with matching floor area, number of floors, owner and scheduled completion into one site. The result is the 16 sites below: 38 rows on a row basis become 16 on a site basis.

Almost none of the plans state a room count. The sole exception is the plan at Ginza 8-chome 16, which Accor has announced as Pullman Tokyo Ginza (プルマン東京銀座), a 12-story, 145-room hotel scheduled to open at the end of 2027 (scheduled completion in the building plan: October 2028). Dividing its 9,990 m² of floor area by 145 rooms gives 68.9 m² of floor area per room. In addition, Mitsubishi Corporation Urban Development announced in April 2025 that the plan at Ginza 8-chome 15-2 would “start construction in spring 2027 and open in autumn 2029 or later.” For all other plans, we do not estimate room counts and treat them by floor area.

Of the 16 sites, 7 are large plans exceeding 9,000 m² of floor area, totaling 88,851 m², or 83.3% of the whole. Owners include a general trading company, real estate companies, a steel-group developer, a film company, a newspaper-affiliated property company and local Ginza firms, and many plans choose hotel use when rebuilding existing buildings (such as the Ginza Boeki Building Redevelopment Plan). For the 14 plans that state site area, the floor-area multiple ranges from 6.1x to 13.1x, with a median of 9.9x. The estimates below use 10x, the rounded median, as “the floor area that one m² of site generates in a Ginza plan.”

Completions come in two waves — small sites in 2027, large sites in H2 2029

Lining up scheduled completions by half-year makes the structure of the pipeline clear. The 6 sites from H2 2026 to H2 2027 are small sites of 604–2,445 m² of floor area, totaling only 7,510 m². Many are slender 9–13-story buildings, a typical scale for limited-service hotels. From H2 2028 onward, by contrast, floor area builds to a peak in H2 2029: 24,485 m² in H2 2028 (2 sites), 16,066 m² in H1 2029 (3 sites), 48,943 m² in H2 2029 (4 sites) and 9,600 m² in H1 2030 (1 site).

Figure 1. Hotel plans in Ginza: floor area and number of sites by half-year of scheduled completion (N=16 sites, 106,604 m²). No. 8 is counted at the later date (December 2028). Source: compiled by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from the MLIT Building Dynamics Statistics Survey

Scheduled construction starts show that this peak is still at a stage where it can shift. Of the 7 large plans, 4 list construction starts in 2027 or later (January, April, June and September 2027). For large projects with long construction periods, the final investment decision is often made on construction costs and interest rates at the time of groundbreaking. Shifts of six months to a year in scheduled completion are not unusual, so the H2 2029 peak is best read as “the peak in the current plans.” From the perspective of anyone evaluating hotel land, openings may cluster in 2028–2030, while 2027 through H1 2028 will be a period with almost no new large-scale supply.

Ginza land prices span 18x — the lower the price, the faster the growth

From the MLIT Real Estate Information Library, we obtained official land prices for commercial land in Ginza 1–8-chome (standard sites of the Official Land Prices and benchmark sites of the Prefectural Land Price Survey). 2026 prices at 19 points range from ¥3.65M to ¥67.1M per m². The benchmark site “Ginza 2-chome 2-19 et al.,” reported as the highest price in Japan, is ¥52.5M, up +11.9% from ¥46.9M the previous year. The highest standard site in the Official Land Prices (as of January 1), “Ginza 4-chome 2-4,” is ¥67.1M (+10.9%).

Even within Ginza, there is an 18-fold gap between high- and low-priced points. Dividing them into three price bands and indexing the 17 points with a complete eight-year series from 2019 (2019 = 100), the 8 high-priced points of ¥30M or more had a median of 116.6, the 5 mid-priced points of ¥9M–¥20M 121.7, and the 4 low-priced points under ¥8M 143.5. The lower the price, the faster the recovery from the 2021–2022 decline. In 2026 as well, the median YoY change was +11.3% for high- and mid-priced points versus +14.2% for low-priced points, and the benchmark site “Ginza 7-chome 205-14” rose +19.5%, the highest rate among Ginza’s 19 points.

Figure 2. Official land prices in Ginza: index by price band (2019 = 100, median of each band; high N=8, mid N=5, low N=4 points; only points with all eight years). Source: compiled by MetroEngines Research & Consulting from the MLIT Real Estate Information Library

Overlaying the hotel plans, most of the 16 sites are not near the high-priced points but in blocks close to mid- and low-priced points in 7- and 8-chome and in 1–3-chome (13 of the 16 sites have a nearest official land price point below ¥20M per m²). The period of strong land-price growth at low-priced points coincides with the run of hotel plans in these blocks. However, official land prices are appraisals of individual points and do not represent the acquisition price of any particular planned site. In a separate analysis of 394 transactions in 10 markets, commercial land traded at 0.86 times the official land price, and at 1.19 times for the top 25%. In the estimates below, we use land prices not as the economics of any specific site but as a guide to “how much per room it costs to build a hotel on land in this price band in Ginza.”

Land cost per room — ¥21.8M at a ¥5.45M point, ¥210M at a ¥52.5M point

Land cost per room is obtained as “land price × site area ÷ number of rooms.” Site area ÷ number of rooms can be rewritten as “floor area per room ÷ floor-area multiple,” so setting the floor-area multiple at 10x, the median of Ginza’s plans, gives land cost per room = land price × floor area per room ÷ 10. Floor area per room, including common areas, was set at 40 m² for limited-service and 70 m² for full-service hotels. The latter is close to Pullman Tokyo Ginza’s published figures (9,990 m² for 145 rooms = 68.9 m²).

For the construction cost of the building itself, we applied the 2025 average for steel-frame (S) construction based on MLIT’s Building Construction Starts Statistics, ¥2.405M per tsubo (3.3 m²), to limited-service hotels, and this article’s assumed value of ¥3.3M per tsubo, intended to reflect the luxury tier, to full-service hotels. In addition, since completions are concentrated in 2028–2029, we set the midpoint of the construction period at 2028 and compounded Turner & Townsend’s construction cost forecasts (+5.3% for 2026 and +5.0% for 2027) together with this article’s assumption of +4.5% for 2028, reflecting an expected slowdown in growth (+15.5% vs. 2025). Construction cost per room for a limited-service hotel is ¥29.1M on a 2025-actual basis and ¥33.62M after inflation.

At a point priced at ¥5.45M, land is only 39.3% of per-room investment, and construction cost is the larger component. The land share rises to 54.6% at ¥10.1M, 70.1% at ¥19.7M and 86.2% at ¥52.5M. At high-priced points, per-room investment barely moves even if construction costs are trimmed, and project viability is determined almost entirely by how the land cost is absorbed. Conversely, at low-to-mid points, rising construction costs feed directly into the economics, making the design of price-escalation clauses and procurement methods a key issue—in particular, how increases in construction cost are shared between owner and contractor under the price-escalation provisions of the revised Construction Business Act.

Chuo Ward rates: 12-month average ¥19,100, +9.5% YoY — existing Ginza hotels median ¥30,400

First, the market-side level to compare against required ADR. On MetroEngines Research’s estimated settled ADR, the 12-month average for Chuo Ward as a whole from September 2025 to August 2026 was ¥19,100 (148–152 hotels covered), up +9.5% from ¥17,400 in the prior-year period. By segment, business hotels were ¥17,900 (127–129 hotels, +9.8%) and city hotels ¥40,700 (19–20 hotels, +4.7%). For comparison, Chiyoda Ward was ¥16,300, Minato Ward ¥17,700 and Taito Ward ¥14,400, placing Chuo Ward in a higher rate band than all three.

Figure 3. Chuo Ward estimated settled ADR, monthly (overlaid by year, median of all segments, 148–152 hotels, settled months September 2024–August 2026). Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting

Monthly, April 2026 at ¥23,800 was the peak of the last 24 months, and there is clear seasonality: higher in autumn (October–November) and spring (March–April), lower in summer. Meanwhile, June–August 2026 came in 5.5%, 6.8% and 15.0% below the same months a year earlier. Although the 12-month average exceeds the prior year, summer rates have not grown as much as last year, so seasonal rate swings also need to be factored in ahead of the cluster of openings in 2028–2030.

Ginza itself sits well above the area as a whole. Of the 39 hotels and 6,902 rooms in Ginza 1–8-chome with sales confirmed in at least 10 of the last 12 months, the 32 hotels (6,003 rooms) for which estimated settled ADR can be calculated had a median 12-month average of ¥30,400, a lower quartile of ¥22,100 and an upper quartile of ¥39,400. Among the 32 hotels with a full prior-year comparison, the median change was +4.2%, and 24 hotels were above the prior year. Note that upper-tier hotels (deluxe, etc.) outside the scope of estimated settled ADR are not included in this distribution, so the upper end of Ginza’s rate distribution is in fact wider still.

Working back to required ADR — limited-service opportunities in low-to-mid land-price bands

Multiplying per-room investment by the target yield gives the annual net operating income (NOI) required per room. Dividing this by the NOI ratio to room revenue converts it back to annual room revenue, and dividing by 365 days × occupancy gives the required ADR. The target yield is based on the 4.1% expected yield for limited-service hotels in Tokyo from the Japan Real Estate Institute’s 54th Real Estate Investor Survey (as of April 2026), with three cases at ±0.5 pt. Occupancy was set at 80%, reflecting the 81.5% for Tokyo business hotels in the Japan Tourism Agency’s Overnight Travel Statistics Survey (2025 final figures), and the NOI ratio at 35% of room revenue.

Figure 4. Required ADR by land-price band (limited-service and full-service, yield 4.1%) and market rate levels. Full-service: 70 m² of floor area per room, construction cost ¥3.3M/tsubo × 1.155, occupancy 77% (full-year assumption; 2025 full-year actual for Tokyo city hotels: 77.2%), NOI = room revenue × 30%. Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting

The required ADR of ¥22,200 at a ¥5.45M point is above Chuo Ward’s overall ¥19,100 but below the ¥30,400 median of existing Ginza hotels, and 22 of the 32 existing hotels with an estimated settled ADR are already selling at or above this level. The ¥29,700 at a ¥10.1M point is also roughly in line with the existing median. In other words, in Ginza’s low-to-mid land-price bands, even a limited-service hotel reaches its target yield if it can ride Ginza’s existing rate band—which is where investment opportunities appear to concentrate. The small-site plans due for completion in 2026–2027 sit squarely in this zone.

At a ¥19.7M point, by contrast, the required ADR is ¥45,100, and only 4 of the 32 existing hotels reach it. At a ¥52.5M point it is ¥97,700, which is hard to make work with a limited-service configuration. At high-priced points, the prerequisite is full-service or luxury formats that can command higher per-room rates, or mixed-use designs that devote the lower floors to retail and share the land cost through rental income. We also estimate required ADR levels for converting existing commercial floors to hotels in Department Store Sites: 6 of 14 Go Hotel, ADR Needs 1.4-3.1x Market. That 4 of the 7 large plans include retail, restaurants or parking is consistent with this structure.

For full-service hotels (70 m² of floor area per room), the required ADR is ¥57,800 even at the low ¥5.45M point and ¥73,600 at ¥10.1M. These far exceed the ¥40,700 median for Chuo Ward city hotels, so full-service viability presupposes pricing as an upper-tier format capturing high-spending inbound demand, rather than the existing city-hotel rate band. That Mitsubishi Corporation Urban Development has stated an upscale-to-luxury hotel development for its Ginza 8-chome plan is consistent with this back-calculation.

Moving occupancy by 5 pt shifts required ADR by about 6–7%, while moving the NOI ratio by 5 pt shifts it by about 12–17%. The latter is more sensitive because the NOI ratio sums up operating profitability (labor costs, distribution fees, rent structure). In locations like Ginza, where land carries a large weight, operational measures that raise the NOI ratio—such as increasing the direct-booking share to curb distribution fees—not just rate setting, are the lever that can widen the viable land-price bands by a notch.

Table 5 moves only one assumption at a time, but in practice occupancy and the NOI ratio move together. Table 6 shows combinations moving both at once for a ¥10.1M point, close to the existing Ginza median. At 85% occupancy (full year) and a 40% NOI ratio, required ADR falls to ¥24,500, and 21 of the 32 existing hotels sell at or above this level. Conversely, at 75% occupancy (full year) and a 30% NOI ratio it is ¥37,000, reached by only 9 existing hotels. Even at the same land price, operating assumptions move the required level from “the upper half of the existing rate band” to “the top 30%.”

How the pipeline overlaps existing supply — 60% of planned floor area in 7- and 8-chome

We tallied the 39 operating hotels (6,902 rooms) in Ginza 1–8-chome by chome and set them alongside the floor area of the 16 planned sites. Existing rooms are concentrated in 6-chome (7 hotels, 1,298 rooms), 7-chome (6 hotels, 1,161 rooms) and 8-chome (6 hotels, 1,118 rooms), followed by 1-chome and 5-chome with about 900 rooms each. On the plan side, 7-chome (4 sites, 36,992 m²) and 8-chome (5 sites, 26,669 m²) together total 63,661 m², or 59.7% of floor area. Since 7- and 8-chome account for 33.0% of existing rooms, new floor space is skewed further south (toward Shimbashi) than existing supply.

Figure 5. Existing rooms (39 operating hotels, 6,902 rooms) and planned floor area (16 sites, 106,604 m²) by chome in Ginza. No plans in 4–6-chome. Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting (based on confirmed OTA listings, N=39 hotels) / MLIT Building Dynamics Statistics Survey

2-chome also stands out: existing supply is small at 4 hotels and 506 rooms (7.3% of the total), while plans cover 3 sites and 24,726 m² (23.2%). Two of these are a roughly 20,000 m²-class plan (the Ginza Boeki Building Redevelopment Plan) and a roughly 4,000 m²-class plan, so a new cluster may emerge on Ginza’s northern side. Meanwhile, no new plans were found within the scope of this tally in 4–6-chome, where existing supply is dense. Rather than new floor space piling onto blocks where hotels already cluster, it spreads into blocks with thin supply—a positive factor for the market’s overall absorption capacity, since it makes head-to-head competition for the same guests between existing and new hotels less likely.

Figure 6. The 16 hotel plan sites in Ginza (blue numbers = No. in Table 1), 39 existing operating hotels (gray; circle size = rooms) and 19 official land price points (small navy circles; values in units of ¥10,000 per m²). Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting / MLIT Real Estate Information Library

By opening date, 29 of the 39 existing hotels (5,217 rooms, 75.6% of rooms) opened in 2014 or later or reopened after a rebrand. Ginza already went through one supply wave centered on limited-service hotels in the late 2010s, and most of those hotels continue to sell in the current rate band (median ¥30,400). The wave of large sites from H2 2028 differs from the previous one in scale and format, and is likely to be configured to capture a higher rate band.

Figure 7. Rooms of existing operating hotels in Ginza by opening period (N=39 hotels, 6,902 rooms; opening dates include reopenings after rebrands; excludes 1 hotel with 14 rooms whose opening date is unknown). Source: MetroEngines Research & Consulting

Conclusion — Ginza land decisions hinge on the “land-price band × hotel type” combination

Ginza’s hotel pipeline comprises 16 sites and 106,604 m², split into a 2027 wave of small sites and a wave of large sites peaking in H2 2029. Converting land prices, which span 18x from ¥3.65M to ¥67.1M per m², into land cost per room, the required ADR for a limited-service hotel is ¥22,200 at a ¥5.45M point and ¥29,700 at ¥10.1M, within range of the ¥30,400 median of existing Ginza hotels. The low-to-mid land-price bands are serving, as in the late 2010s, as the home for limited-service hotels—investment opportunities that can work at existing rates.

Above ¥19.7M, by contrast, the required ADR for a limited-service hotel is ¥45,100 or more, making designs that share the land cost through full-service or upper-tier formats or combinations with retail floors a prerequisite. Given that 4 of the 7 large plans are mixed-use, and that land prices are rising fastest at the lower-priced points, the shortcut to judging viability when evaluating hotel land in Ginza is to first check “which hotel type, in that land-price band, brings required ADR within the existing rate distribution”—rather than the land price itself.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1. How many hotels are planned in Ginza?
According to building plan data based on the MLIT Building Dynamics Statistics Survey and other sources, hotel-use plans in Ginza 1–8-chome, Chuo-ku, with scheduled completion from December 2026 to March 2030 cover 16 sites (after consolidating duplicate rows) and a total floor area of 106,604 m². This is a lower bound on a building-confirmation-application basis and may increase as further applications are filed.

Q2. Do any of the new hotel plans in Ginza disclose room counts?
Almost none of the building plans state a room count. For the plan at Ginza 8-chome 16, Accor has announced Pullman Tokyo Ginza with 145 rooms, scheduled to open at the end of 2027. For the others, floor area is the appropriate measure.

Q3. How much land cost per hotel room do Ginza land prices imply?
Assuming 40 m² of floor area per room and a floor-area multiple of 10x, land cost per room = land price × 4. On 2026 official land prices, that is ¥21.8M at a ¥5.45M/m² point, ¥40.4M at ¥10.1M/m², and ¥210M at a ¥52.5M/m² point.

Q4. What room rate does a limited-service hotel in Ginza need?
In this article’s estimate, which factors in rising construction costs and assumes a 4.1% yield, 80% occupancy (full year) and a 35% NOI ratio, it is ¥22,200 at a ¥5.45M/m² point and ¥29,700 at ¥10.1M/m² (both tax-excluded equivalent). The median estimated settled ADR of 32 existing Ginza hotels is ¥30,400, so in the low-to-mid land-price bands the required level is reachable within the existing rate band.

Q5. Is the redevelopment of the former Tsukiji Market site included?
No. The market-site redevelopment in Tsukiji 5-chome is a large integrated development including two hotel buildings, a different kind of project from Ginza’s small and mid-sized sites. Separately, 7 hotel plans totaling 10,149 m² are registered in Tsukiji 1–7-chome.

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