The autumn tourism season is expected to bring a surge of visitors to popular destinations across Japan during the two consecutive three-day weekends in September 2024. Since the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Category 5 infectious disease in May 2023, the tourism industry has seen a recovery surpassing 2019 levels. However, concerns over natural disasters, such as the Noto Peninsula earthquake, heavy rains in July, and the Nankai Trough Earthquake emergency warnings following the Hyuga-nada earthquake, remain prevalent. Despite these challenges, the growing demand from inbound tourists continues to support the industry.
(Based on data from Teikoku Databank, Ltd.)
According to a survey by Teikoku Databank, the tourism business sentiment index (Tourism DI) has exceeded the overall industry DI for 18 consecutive months since March 2023. In particular, after the announcement of COVID-19’s reclassification in May 2023, the Tourism DI reached 49.9 that month and has since remained at a high level, driven by inbound demand. The index temporarily dropped to 45.8 in January 2024 due to a self-restraint mood following the Noto Peninsula earthquake. However, thanks to tourism promotion measures and strong inbound demand, it recovered to 47.2 in August 2024.
Voices from businesses highlight different perspectives depending on region and industry. In Hokkaido, restaurant operators expressed optimism, saying, “Inbound demand is strong.” On the other hand, hotel operators in Wakayama reported that the Nankai Trough Earthquake emergency warnings significantly affected guest numbers during the busiest period. Hotel operators in Fukushima noted that “the benefits of inbound tourism are limited in rural areas,” underscoring regional disparities. In Niigata, restaurant owners mentioned that “nighttime crowds have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels,” indicating a slow recovery.
(Based on data from Teikoku Databank, Ltd.)
The number of foreign visitors to Japan reached 21.07 million in total between January and July 2024, significantly surpassing the 13.03 million recorded during the same period last year. It is almost certain that the annual figure will exceed the previous year’s total, and the pace has even outstripped that of 2019, which was before the pandemic. This surge in inbound demand is seen as driving the recovery of Japan’s tourism industry.
(Based on data from Teikoku Databank, Ltd.)
On the other hand, data from the Japan Tourism Agency on the total handling value of major travel agencies shows that while domestic travel in fiscal year 2023 recovered to 2.3559 trillion yen, nearing pre-pandemic levels, outbound travel lagged behind at 1.0699 trillion yen, impacted by the weak yen and rising prices. Even in fiscal year 2024, the recovery in outbound travel remains sluggish, as factors such as high prices, weather conditions, and labor shortages persist, leaving the total handling value only slightly above that of the previous year.
While the Tourism DI continues to outpace other industries, buoyed by inbound demand, concerns about the impact of a stronger yen loom. Furthermore, the industry faces management challenges such as labor shortages and overtourism, making it essential to tap into new travel demand while addressing these issues.