In May, when the cherry blossom season has ended and the fresh greenery and outdoor activities reach their peak, inbound tourism to Japan continues to expand. In May 2024, 19 source markets recorded their highest-ever monthly arrivals for the month, followed by 21 markets in May 2025, indicating a structural normalization of record-breaking demand. This period has increasingly become established as a “regional dispersion season,” during which Western independent travelers and Southeast Asian visitors show a strong preference for regional destinations. This report analyzes booking trends for May 2026 and examines the structural uplift in Average Daily Rate (ADR) across regional resort prefectures such as Nagano, Yamanashi, and Oita, based on publicly available pricing data from Metro Engine Research and statistics from the Japan Tourism Agency and JNTO.
Definition of Key Metrics
ADR (Average Daily Rate): The average of publicly listed accommodation prices on OTAs. This differs from actual transaction prices. Figures are based on the total room rate (including tax) for double occupancy (two guests per room), averaged across all plan types, from room-only to meal-inclusive packages.
Sold-Out Rate: The proportion of accommodation plans that were no longer available for booking on OTAs at the time of data collection. This differs from the overall occupancy rate of a property.
Data Source: Metro Engine Research
- May as a “Regional Dispersion Season” Driven by Record-Breaking Markets
- ADR Trends in Three Regional Resort Prefectures
- Narrowing ADR Gap Between Major Cities and Regional Areas
- Intra-Month Demand Stability: A “Second Peak” in Late May
- Nationality Shift and Its Impact on Regional ADR
- Implications for Revenue Management
- Conclusion: Sustained ADR Growth Beyond Golden Week
- External References
May as a “Regional Dispersion Season” Driven by Record-Breaking Markets
ADR Trends in Three Regional Resort Prefectures
Narrowing ADR Gap Between Major Cities and Regional Areas
Compared to major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka, ADR levels in these three prefectures are approximately 1.5 to 1.8 times higher. This reflects both structural factors—such as the prevalence of spacious ryokan-style accommodations and resort properties—and the impact of demand from Western and Southeast Asian travelers.
In addition, sold-out rates exceeding 20% in prefectures such as Gifu and Ishikawa indicate that demand is spreading beyond the core three prefectures, reinforcing the broader expansion of regional tourism.
Intra-Month Demand Stability: A “Second Peak” in Late May
Breaking down May 2026 into three periods—Golden Week (May 1–7), mid-May (May 8–15), and late May (May 16–31)—reveals that while ADR peaks during Golden Week, the subsequent decline is limited.
In Oita, ADR decreases from ¥51,400 during Golden Week to ¥47,200 in late May, a relatively small drop of approximately ¥4,200. In Nagano, ADR recovers from ¥42,300 in mid-May to ¥43,000 in late May, reflecting demand from Western travelers for hiking and outdoor activities. Yamanashi similarly maintains high ADR levels in the ¥44,000–¥44,800 range after a Golden Week peak of ¥52,800.
Unlike urban areas, where demand typically drops sharply after Golden Week, regional resort areas exhibit sustained demand throughout the month. Late May (May 16–31) is increasingly forming a “second peak” period for regional destinations.
Nationality Shift and Its Impact on Regional ADR
According to JNTO’s estimated figures for March 2026, the number of visitors from China declined by 55.9% year-on-year, while arrivals from the United States (+9.7%), Vietnam (+43.5%), and the United Kingdom (+20.7%) increased significantly. Seven markets, including these countries, recorded all-time highs for March.
This shift in visitor composition has a structural impact on ADR. Chinese visitors, who tend to travel in groups, primarily contribute to demand in urban hotels in Tokyo and Osaka. In contrast, Western independent travelers prefer regional resorts and hot spring accommodations, often staying longer and selecting higher-priced room types.
As a result, the decline in Chinese visitors exerts downward pressure on urban ADR, while the growth in Western and Southeast Asian travelers drives ADR increases in regional resort areas. In May 2026 data, Tokyo recorded +14.2% year-on-year growth, while Nagano (+12.3%) and Oita (+13.3%) achieved comparable or higher increases, indicating the emergence of independent demand structures in regional areas.
Implications for Revenue Management
The structural changes observed in regional resort areas provide important implications for revenue management strategies.
First, pricing strategies for mid-to-late May (May 8–31) should move away from the conventional approach of immediate price reductions after Golden Week. In the three prefectures analyzed, ADR levels during this period remain at 80–90% of Golden Week levels, with clear year-on-year growth.
Second, Western independent travelers typically have longer booking lead times of three to six months, meaning that pricing strategies for late May are often determined as early as January or February. Given current sold-out rates exceeding 10%, prioritizing rate integrity over occupancy maximization is a rational approach.
Third, with sold-out rates exceeding 20% in other regional prefectures such as Gifu and Ishikawa, demand is expanding beyond the core three regions. This indicates that Western and Southeast Asian travelers are increasingly recognizing a wider range of regional destinations across Japan.
Conclusion: Sustained ADR Growth Beyond Golden Week
As demonstrated in this analysis, May has become firmly established as a “regional dispersion month,” with more than 17 markets recording all-time highs for two consecutive years. In May 2026, this trend continues, with ADR in Nagano, Yamanashi, and Oita rising by 14–16% over the past three years and surpassing Tokyo while approaching Kyoto levels.
Furthermore, intra-month analysis shows that demand remains resilient after Golden Week, with late May emerging as a second peak period. The shift in visitor composition—from Chinese group travelers to Western and Southeast Asian independent travelers—acts as a structural tailwind for regional resort destinations.
For hotel operators, this suggests a need to reconsider traditional pricing strategies, particularly the assumption of post-Golden Week price reductions. Instead, there is significant potential to maintain higher ADR levels throughout late May by aligning pricing with long-stay demand from Western travelers.
Note on Future ADR Data:
ADR figures in this report are based on publicly available OTA prices at the time of data collection and are subject to change as the check-in date approaches. Prices currently set at higher levels may decline closer to the booking date.