Golden Week 2026 Hotel Price YoY Analysis Across Six Major Cities: Unpacking the Drivers Behind Kyoto (+20%) and Tokyo (+17%)

In contrast, when looking beyond the Golden Week period and examining monthly ADR for April and May, the year-on-year increases are even more pronounced. Kyoto recorded gains of +18.6% in April and +20.4% in May, while Tokyo rose by +17.4% to +14.2%, and Hokkaido by +11.2% to +13.1%.

This suggests that the surge in demand is not limited to the holiday period itself. Rather, the relative impact of Golden Week-specific demand has weakened compared to the broader expansion of baseline demand. In other words, the primary driver behind rising ADR appears to be a structural uplift in demand throughout the year.

Why Osaka Alone Recorded a Decline During Golden Week

Osaka was the only city among the six to post a year-on-year decline in ADR during the Golden Week period. However, on a monthly basis, ADR still increased by approximately +8% to +12%. This divergence can be attributed to pricing strategies that captured the surge in demand during Golden Week 2025, when the Osaka–Kansai Expo had just opened. With demand spiking immediately after the event’s launch, hotel rates were temporarily pushed to elevated levels.

As a result, ADR during Golden Week 2026 appears comparatively lower on a year-on-year basis, reflecting a normalization against the unusually high benchmark set in 2025. In essence, while the broader trend remains upward (+8% to +12%), the Golden Week comparison creates the impression of a decline.

Importantly, when including weekdays in the monthly ADR, Osaka continues to show positive year-on-year growth, in line with other cities. This indicates that the “decline” is not a reversal in pricing, but rather an adjustment following the fading of one-off demand. It should therefore be understood as a normalization effect, not a sign of structural weakening in demand.

Monthly ADR Trends and Seasonality Across Six Cities

Next, we take a broader view of monthly ADR trends across the six cities from January 2024 through June 2026. All cities show a clear upward trajectory, with particularly strong growth observed in Kyoto and Tokyo.

In Kyoto, ADR rose from a peak of ¥39,474 in April 2024 to ¥50,277 in April 2026—an increase of approximately 27% over two years.

What stands out in the chart is the pronounced increase in ADR during the winter months (November–December) in cities with a high reliance on inbound demand, such as Kyoto and Tokyo. This indicates that periods traditionally considered the “off-season” are becoming more balanced, driven by a growing influx of mid- to long-haul travelers from Europe, the United States, and Australia.

In contrast, Hokkaido shows a more noticeable rise from the summer of 2025 onward, reflecting demand growth that remains closely aligned with its seasonal travel patterns.

Factor 1: Inbound Visitor Numbers Remain at Record Levels

The primary driver behind rising hotel prices continues to be strong inbound demand. According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), the number of international visitors to Japan reached approximately 3.47 million in February 2026, marking a record high for the month and representing a +6.4% increase year-on-year.

By market, 18 source countries and regions—including South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States—set new February records. Despite the shift in the Lunar New Year (Spring Festival) period from late January in 2025 to mid-February in 2026, overall inbound demand remained resilient, highlighting the growing depth of Japan’s inbound market.

It is worth noting that January 2026 saw a -4.9% year-on-year decline in visitor numbers, the first contraction in four years. This was largely driven by a significant drop in arrivals from China. In contrast, South Korea recorded over 1.1 million visitors in a single month for the first time, underscoring the strength of other markets.

Taken together, the stability in overall inbound volume, along with increasing diversification across source markets, is contributing to sustained demand growth for hotels across the six cities.

Factor 2: Domestic Travel Demand Edges Up, with a Shift Toward Shorter, Nearby Trips

According to estimates by the JTB Tourism Research & Consulting, total travel volume during Golden Week 2026 (April 25 to May 7) is projected to reach 24.47 million trips, up +1.9% year-on-year, with total travel spending expected to rise +1.1% to ¥1.2876 trillion.

Domestic travel is forecast at 23.9 million trips (+1.7%), showing modest growth, while outbound travel is expected to increase more significantly to 572,000 travelers (+8.5%).

A key point to watch is the trend in average travel budgets. The average planned spending for domestic trips has declined to ¥46,000 per person, indicating a continued shift toward shorter trips and closer destinations. While consumer sentiment is gradually moving toward “maintaining travel spending” amid stable disposable income, per capita expenditure remains constrained. This creates a baseline dynamic in domestic travel characterized by “steady demand but slightly declining unit spending.”

Despite this, ADR across the six cities continues to rise. This suggests that the upward pressure from higher-spending inbound travelers, combined with more assertive pricing strategies driven by increased occupancy, is outweighing the downward pressure on unit spending in the domestic market.

Factor 3: REIT Performance Highlights Dual Growth in Occupancy and Rates

Beyond demand-side indicators, operational performance on the supply side also supports the upward trend in pricing. Monthly operating results for February 2026 from three major REITs focused on urban hotels show that occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR all remained positive year-on-year, reinforcing the strength of the current market environment.

Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (8985) reported an occupancy rate of 85.2% as of February 2026 (+2.4 percentage points year-on-year), with ADR at ¥19,449 (+3.1%) and RevPAR at ¥16,567 (+6.1%). Meanwhile, Invincible Investment Corporation (8963) also maintained positive performance, recording an occupancy rate of 86.6% (+2.0 percentage points), ADR of ¥13,473 (+0.9%), and RevPAR of ¥11,669 (+2.9%).

In contrast, Hoshino Resorts REIT (3287), which focuses primarily on resort properties, reported an occupancy rate of 76.5% (+1.9 percentage points year-on-year), ADR of ¥20,771 (+8.6%), and RevPAR of ¥15,884 (+10.5%), highlighting revenue growth driven primarily by rising room rates.

Taken together, these figures confirm that the increase in ADR across the six cities is supported by a dual-engine dynamic: high occupancy combined with rising pricing power.

Factor 4: Slowing Supply Growth and the Shift Toward a “Selection Phase”

On the supply side, the slowdown in new hotel openings is another factor supporting price increases. Around 36 new hotels are expected to open nationwide in 2026. While major projects—such as the Imperial Hotel Kyoto Gion, as well as resort developments in Naha and the Tokyo Bay area—are still moving forward, the large-scale development phase that drove the post-pandemic recovery has largely subsided.

Structurally, the hospitality industry is also undergoing a shift. The Japan Tourism Agency has set a policy direction of transforming tourism into a high-value industry, with a clear budget shift toward “higher value-added services” and “labor-saving operations.” Funding for labor shortage measures has increased sixfold year-on-year, while budgets for accessibility improvements have surged thirteenfold. These policy trends are encouraging a move away from rapid expansion in room supply toward enhancing the value of existing assets and optimizing occupancy.

In addition, the gap between domestic travel demand—which has yet to fully recover to 2019 levels—and record-high inbound demand is pushing up occupancy rates in urban hotels and reinforcing stronger pricing strategies. As the industry transitions out of the recovery phase into what can be described as a “selection phase,” competitiveness will increasingly be defined by pricing power and the ability to deliver differentiated guest experiences.

Summary of Key Drivers by City

The factors behind ADR growth across the six cities can be qualitatively organized along three dimensions: inbound demand, domestic travel demand, and supply constraints.

Conclusion: Golden Week 2026 Pricing as a Milestone in a Structural Shift

ADR across the six cities during Golden Week 2026 recorded increases ranging from +4% to +13% when viewed solely over the holiday period, and from +5% to +20% on a monthly basis, reflecting a wide dispersion in growth rates. The primary drivers are record-high inbound demand and a supply environment that enables operators to raise prices while maintaining strong occupancy—trends that are also supported by REIT performance data.

Osaka’s year-on-year decline during Golden Week is a temporary effect caused by the absence of the exceptional demand seen during the Expo period, while its monthly trend remains positive in line with other cities. Looking at the underlying drivers by city, Kyoto and Tokyo—both highly dependent on inbound demand—continue to have significant room for further price growth, while resort-oriented destinations such as Okinawa and Hokkaido still have upside potential driven by longer-stay demand.

As the hospitality industry enters a “selection phase,” success will increasingly depend on the dual capabilities of pricing strategy and the ability to deliver differentiated guest experiences.