The Impact of Expo 2025 Osaka on Hotel ADR: An Analysis Using REIT and OTA Data

Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan, held from April 13 to October 13, 2025, attracted approximately 28.2 million visitors. As a result, the hotel market across the Kansai region experienced a sharp increase in accommodation demand. However, as of April 2026, six months after the Expo closed, year-on-year declines in ADR, or average daily rate, have become increasingly visible across Kansai.

Does this decline indicate a deterioration in the market? Or is it simply a normalization from the unusually high levels created by the special event effect of the Expo?

This article examines that question using monthly operating data from seven listed hotel REITs and publicly available OTA rate data covering approximately 2,600 hotels in the Kansai region. It also considers how hotel operators and investors should interpret year-on-year performance heading into the second half of 2026.

Data Used in the Analysis

This analysis combines two different types of data to examine the market from multiple perspectives.

1. Kansai ADR: 2025 Stands Out as an Exceptional Outlier

First, looking at monthly ADR for REIT properties in the Kansai region by year, the divergence is clear. ADR from April to October 2025, the Expo period, was significantly higher than in both 2024 and 2026.

During the Expo period in 2025, Kansai ADR exceeded 2024 levels by approximately 20% to 43% in almost every month. May recorded particularly strong growth of +42.6%, while September rose +37.7%.

By contrast, ADR in January and February 2026 had returned to levels close to those seen in 2024. This clearly indicates that the Expo-driven uplift was temporary.

Such an extreme rise in ADR was likely the result of Expo visitors generating accommodation demand across the entire Kansai region, while the high level of attention surrounding the event also stimulated business and MICE demand.

2. Tokyo ADR: Year-to-Year Differences Were Limited

Next, we examine the Tokyo area as a comparison group. The data shows that year-to-year differences in ADR were much smaller in Tokyo than in Kansai.

Tokyo showed gradual growth from 2024 to 2025, but each year followed a relatively stable seasonal pattern. There was no sharp spike similar to what was observed in Kansai from April to October 2025.

This indicates that Kansai’s exceptional rise in 2025 was not part of a nationwide trend. It was a specific effect of the Expo.

3. Quantifying the Expo “Excess Growth”: Kansai Outperformed Tokyo by 22 Percentage Points

How large was the Expo’s uplift effect?

For this analysis, Tokyo’s ADR growth rate was used as a baseline scenario representing what might have occurred without the Expo. The difference between Kansai’s ADR growth rate and Tokyo’s was then calculated as the “Expo excess effect.”

Across the seven-month Expo period, Kansai recorded ADR growth that exceeded Tokyo by an average of 21.7 percentage points. By month, the effect was especially large in May at +31 percentage points and September at +30 percentage points.

The May figure likely reflects overlap with Japan’s Golden Week holiday period, while the September figure appears to reflect a synergistic effect with the autumn travel season.

Tokyo’s ADR growth rate during the period was +8.9%, which can be attributed to nationwide macro factors such as the recovery in inbound travel and growth in domestic travel demand. Even after subtracting these common factors, Kansai still outperformed Tokyo by more than 20 percentage points. This clearly demonstrates the scale of the Expo’s ability to generate accommodation demand.

4. Impact on Occupancy: An Unusual Environment Where Rooms Filled Despite Higher Rates

The Expo effect was not limited to ADR. A comparison of occupancy by year reveals an even more interesting pattern.

During the Expo period in 2025, the Kansai region recorded an average occupancy rate of 87.9%. This was 7.1 percentage points higher than the 80.8% recorded during the same period in 2024.

In general, when hotels raise ADR, occupancy tends to decline. During the Expo period, however, Kansai hotels experienced an ideal supply-demand environment in which rooms continued to sell even as prices increased.

This suggests that the Expo did not merely raise prices. It generated real incremental demand.

5. RevPAR: A Synergistic Effect from ADR and Occupancy, with Growth of Up to 62%

The Expo effect becomes even more pronounced when viewed through RevPAR, which is calculated as ADR multiplied by occupancy and is one of the most accurate indicators of hotel revenue performance.

As higher ADR combined with stronger occupancy, RevPAR in Kansai rose 56% year on year in May 2025 and 62% in September. In other words, the Expo lifted hotel operators’ room revenue by approximately 1.5 to 1.6 times.

Understanding the size of this impact is essential when evaluating the “reactionary decline” in 2026.

6. After the Expo: The Effect Disappeared in Just Two Months

Expo 2025 closed on October 13, 2025. What happened to the Kansai hotel market after the event ended?

The following table shows the year-on-year trend in Kansai ADR before and after the closing of the Expo.

As shown above, the ADR uplift created by the Expo disappeared completely within just two months of the event’s closing. By December, year-on-year growth had become almost flat, and in 2026 it turned negative.

However, the important point is that ADR remained positive compared with the same months in 2024, as shown in the year-by-year comparison above. Therefore, the interpretation that the market has deteriorated compared with the pre-Expo period does not match the data.

7. OTA Rate Data Confirms the Structure for April to July 2026

Note on data comparison: The analysis from this point onward is based on listed selling prices published on OTAs and other booking channels. The REIT monthly data used in previous sections is based on actual realized hotel operating results. Because these datasets have structural differences in level, OTA-listed prices generally tend to appear higher than realized REIT ADR. Therefore, the analysis focuses on year-on-year percentage changes rather than direct comparisons of absolute values.

The analysis so far has been based on REIT monthly data through February 2026. To understand the latest situation from April 2026 onward, we now examine OTA and other public selling price data for approximately 2,600 hotels in the Kansai region.

Source: Prepared by Metro Engine based on OTA and other public data. Sample: Kansai N=2,473 to 2,684 hotels; Tokyo N=1,232 to 1,312 hotels.

Source: Prepared by Metro Engine based on OTA and other public data. Sample: Kansai N=2,473 to 2,684 hotels; Tokyo N=1,232 to 1,312 hotels.

The OTA data presents a clear picture. In April 2026, Kansai ADR was down 17.5% year on year, while Tokyo remained firm at +4.1%. The difference between the two regions was -21.7 percentage points.

This almost exactly matches the Expo excess effect of +21.7 percentage points calculated in the REIT analysis. In other words, the portion added by the Expo in 2025 is appearing almost directly as a year-on-year decline in 2026. This structure is supported by both REIT data and OTA data.

8. Demand Recovery Seen Through OTA Inventory Absorption

In addition to prices, inventory absorption offers another way to assess the actual state of demand. The following compares the inventory absorption rate, or the share of sold-out plans, on OTAs and other channels between Kansai and Tokyo.
As of April 2026, the Tokyo area had a high inventory absorption rate of 86.3%. In contrast, Kansai stood at 66.8%, creating a gap of approximately 17 percentage points.

This trend is expected to continue from May onward, with Kansai remaining 7 to 17 percentage points below Tokyo.

However, this should not be interpreted too simply as weak demand in Kansai. During the Expo period, Kansai sustained unusually high occupancy levels above 90%. The current 60% to 70% range should instead be understood as a process of returning toward normal-year levels.

9. Implications for the Second Half of 2026: How to Read “Post-Expo Loss”

Based on the analysis above, it is almost certain that Kansai hotels will continue to show challenging year-on-year figures from April 2026 onward. This is because the comparison period, April to October 2025, was abnormally inflated by Expo-related special demand.

However, as this analysis consistently shows, the primary cause of the decline is the reaction to Expo special demand. It does not indicate a decline in hotel competitiveness or a structural deterioration in the market.

To properly evaluate 2026 performance, Kansai hotel operators and investors should focus on the following three perspectives.

Three Perspectives for Evaluating Performance

Quick Reference: Monthly “Expo Handicap” for 2026

Finally, the following table summarizes the extent to which year-on-year figures in each month of 2026 may appear weaker due to the Expo comparison base. This can serve as a reference for hotel operators and investors when evaluating monthly results.

Source: Prepared by Metro Engine based on monthly operating data disclosed by each REIT.

Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan brought a temporary but extremely significant benefit to the hotel market in the Kansai region. Because the impact was so large, the post-event reaction is also large.

In 2026, the way the industry interprets this “post-Expo loss” will be central to accurately evaluating the Kansai hotel market. Rather than becoming pessimistic by looking only at surface-level year-on-year figures, hotel operators and investors should analyze the market using multiple perspectives, as shown in this article. This approach is essential for both business decisions and investment decisions.

Related Data Sources

According to the Accommodation Survey published by the Japan Tourism Agency, the number of foreign guest nights in the Kansai region reached a record high in 2025, further supporting the view that inbound demand was boosted during the Expo period.

Data sources:

Hotel REIT monthly operating data: Individual property data aggregated from seven hotel REITs — Ichigo Hotel REIT Investment Corporation, Invincible Investment Corporation, Japan Hotel & Residential Investment Corporation, Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation, Hoshino Resorts REIT, Mori Trust REIT, and Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT. The dataset covers 19 properties in Kansai and 15 to 18 properties in the Tokyo area.

OTA and other public rate data: Kansai N=2,473 to 2,684 hotels; Tokyo N=1,232 to 1,312 hotels. Researched by Metro Engine Inc.

Analysis: Data Analytics Department, Metro Engine Inc.